Recently, the virtual currency market has frequently taken a “roller coaster”, and prices have risen and fallen sharply.

On May 21, the State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee (hereinafter referred to as the “Financial Committee”) meeting clearly proposed to strengthen the supervision of platform enterprises’ financial activities, crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading behavior, and resolutely prevent the transmission of individual risks to the social field. It is worth noting that this is the first time that the Financial Commission has proposed cracking down on Bitcoin mining and trading.

At the same time, the US government is also strengthening monitoring of cryptocurrencies. On May 21, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that the monitoring of cryptocurrencies has become an important issue. It facilitates many illegal activities, including tax evasion, and this is also the President will provide additional resources for the IRS to solve The reason for the growth of encrypted assets.

The U.S. Treasury Department stated that it will require a single cryptocurrency transaction equivalent to more than $10,000 to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service. This is regarded as an important part of the Biden administration’s proposal to strengthen tax compliance.

With the overall tightening of supervision, the virtual currency market collapsed across the board last week. After the Chinese Financial Commission proposed to crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, falling by more than US$3,000 in 10 minutes, once breaking through US$34,000, which was 47% less than the historical high of US$64,900 last month. As of 22:15 on the 23rd, Bitcoin fell to 33502.61 US dollars.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

Of course it is gold. To avoid risk, it is not only market risk, but also policy risk. At present, the risk of Bitcoin is undoubtedly much greater than that of gold. In fact, I have always been curious about a question. The currency circle has always regarded decentralization as a selling point, as a feature of hedging, but if the state, central bank and other centralized institutions have died out, what kind of world is that? To achieve gczy? Then wealth and currency may be meaningless; is the world chaotic? I am afraid that in many places, electricity and network are not guaranteed. At that time, Bitcoin is easy to use, or gold bullion is easy to use?

7 months ago

Everything has two sides. Yu’e Bao will not fall sharply, but it will not rise sharply either. A 20% drop in the fund is considered a big drop, but it has risen slowly, and the bull market may double or triple, and it usually fluctuates slightly. In the bull market, the digital currency has basically risen by more than ten times, while in the bear market, it will not be counted if it does not fall by 80% or 90%. There are very few so-called high-quality assets in this world: the higher the rise, the lower the risk. In the past two decades, real estate should be considered to meet this standard, and the correction may be 20%, and the increase can be several times. However, according to the experience of developed countries, real estate also has a big cycle. If it is not controlled and speculated, housing prices will still collapse. Therefore, in recent years, whenever housing prices have seen signs of skyrocketing, the country will come out. Step on the brakes to smooth the rise in housing prices without going too crazy. Originally, digital currency is a niche investment product. If a few people speculate, the country will not respond much. The country’s attitude towards digital currency has always been discouraged or prohibited. But now the hype is getting more and more crazy, and many students who have not been involved in the world have participated in it. Once the “individual risk is passed to the social field”, it will have a very large negative impact on the social field. A piece of news came out yesterday that some people failed to retaliate against the society, causing 5 deaths and 5 injuries. The investment was originally made to make life better, but Liu’s investment not only caused him to commit irreversible crimes, but also ruined the lives of others. It was really too sad. Therefore, before investing, you must understand the risks of the investment products and use the money you lose to invest. The old saying goes well: Investment is risky, so you should be cautious when you enter the industry, so that it is good for yourself and others. Welcome to follow my official account: Taoge investment notes, daily dry goods sharing

7 months ago

First of all, virtual currency-a string of codes is definitely not! I think high-quality safe-haven assets include stocks, funds, and real estate. The past 10 years have been the golden decade of China’s real estate market; I am more optimistic about equity assets in the next 10 years! Ten years of general trend Over the past ten years, A-share investors are undoubtedly painful. Since the Shanghai Composite Index hit 6124 points in 2007, as of today, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed at 3100 points, a drop of nearly 50%. Winner. It is no wonder that many investors shouted that it is easy to transfer assets. They only need to divide their assets into two equal parts, one to buy US stocks and the other to buy A shares. After one year, the assets will be transferred. In fact, you don’t need to be pessimistic. What happened in the Chinese stock market in the past decade has also happened in the United States. In the United States in the 1970s, U.S. stocks did not rise for ten years. In fact, since the beginning of 1966, the U.S. stock market has entered a sideways shock phase. The S&P 500 index rose from a peak of 94 points in 1966.1 to a peak of 105 points in February 1980. The Dow Jones index rose from a peak of 1001 points in early 1966 to a peak of 1,000 points in November 1980. In the same period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 3.5 times, the annualized nominal year-on-year growth rate was 9.4%, and the average year-on-year growth rate of real GDP was 3.3%. Similar to the U.S. stocks in the 1970s, from the perspective of the Shanghai Composite Index, A shares have not risen for 10 years. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from the highest of 3478 points in 2009 to the highest since 2019 of 3288 points. . The background of the stock market’s ten-year sideways: economic growth has shifted, and the valuation center has shifted downward. Comparing China in the past ten years and the United States in the 1970s, both periods were in a shifting period of economic growth. The growth rate of traditional industries declined, while the emerging industries were in the ascendant. Under this background, the valuation level of the stock market dropped overall. Most importantly, on the eve of the bull market in the two countries, the curtain was kicked off by the transformation, and corporate profits drove valuations to double upward. After the U.S. economic growth shifted in the 1980s, the valuation system was stable. After the “stagflation” stage of the 1970s, the economy entered a new round of “great stability” growth stage in the 1980s, and the fluctuation range of the U.S. economy changed during 1980-1990. Small, the actual year-on-year GDP growth rate averaged 3.2%, and there was no serious recession or inflation. From a structural point of view, the proportion of services and consumption in the US economy further increased in the 1980s. Against the background of steady economic growth in the United States in the 1980s, US stocks ushered in a valuation restoration. The S&P 500PE (TTM) (the same below) has risen from the lowest 7 times in early 1980 to about 26 times the highest in 1992. On the one hand, the rebound in U.S. stock valuations stems from the steady economic growth of the United States in the 1980s. On the other hand, it is also related to the increase in the share of technology and consumer industries in the stock market. Looking at China today, 5G and new energy vehicles, as the engines of emerging industries, played the role of technology and consumer power in the US stock market in the 1980s. From a macro perspective, my country will enter an era of flat GDP just like the United States in the 1980s. Similar to the United States in the 1980s, my country’s economic growth is shifting from focusing on speed to focusing on quality. Since 2010, the speed of my country’s economic transformation has been accelerating. In the future, my country’s economy is expected to enter a stage of steady growth. In this context, the valuation of the stock market will also become more stable. In the era of equity investment and financing, allocation boosted the bull market. On the one hand, the U.S. stock market developed rapidly due to the upgrading of the industrial structure and the rising demand for equity financing. On the other hand, the entry of long-term funds brought the growth and valuation of institutional investors. It has risen and ushered in a bull market for nearly 20 years. The current era of equity investment and financing in my country has also come. The transformation of the industrial structure has put forward higher requirements on the stock market from the financing end, and the transfer of large-scale asset allocation by residents and institutions has also brought more potential market funds to the stock market. Specifically, the net inflow of funds in 2019 will be about 500 billion, and the incremental funds in the stock market in 2020 are expected to exceed one trillion. On a year-on-year basis, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered the sixth round of bull market since 2019/01/04 at 2440. However, the shape of this bull market will be different from the past. It is no longer a mad bull, but similar to the US stocks after the 1980s. There is a round of long bulls and slow bulls. It is believed that with the great development of equity financing in the future, the continuous entry of allocated funds will promote the development of institutional investors, the market amplitude and turnover rate will gradually decline, A-shares will shift from transactional to allocation, and the double increase in profit and valuation will promote the growth of the stock Cattle. In the next ten years, I am optimistic about equity investment!

7 months ago

Safe-haven assets do not require high returns, but can remain stable when other assets in your asset portfolio fall sharply, or even rise slightly; when your other assets have suffered large losses due to sharp declines, you The safe-haven assets of the company can be used without worrying about cutting meat-you have grain in your hands and don’t panic. For example, when your stocks fall sharply, if there are no safe-haven assets, and you need to spend money urgently, you can only sell the stocks in your hands. Because my financial management method is mainly fund management, my safe-haven assets are bond funds. My asset allocation and financial management must always be risk-conscious, even in a bull market, it is terrible to lose money from a bull to a bear. The current situation of my asset allocation is roughly as follows: banks, stocks, funds, insurance (my financial management is based on funds). ①Bank: 2/14–Emergency reserve funds. Taking into account factors such as holidays and transfer-out limits, the bank is quick to use it for emergency use. Take it and use it as you go. If the fund is sold on today’s trading day, it will not be received until the second trading day. ②Stocks: 1/14–Understand the market trend and care about it when you buy it, which helps you pay attention to the market trend. ③ Fund Monetary Fund: 1/14-emergency reserve funds or daily use. Pure debt fund + currency fund: 2/14-hedging funds. It is mainly used for foreseeable expenditures, such as buying a car, getting married, having children, going to school, etc.; in addition, when the market environment is relatively poor or in a bear market, when stock funds and hybrid funds fall to a relatively low point, monetary funds and pure funds are used. It is also a good choice to convert debt funds into equity and hybrid funds to reduce holding costs and increase holding shares. I have said many times that bond funds have little volatility with the stock market and can be used as safe-haven assets; they can be sold in an emergency; stock-type and index-type funds are volatile and may fall sharply when you are in a hurry. You can only cut the meat (don’t wait until the market plummets to remember the goodness of bond funds); convertible bond funds are not recommended here, because the risk is relatively high and they are not suitable for hedging. For friends with low risk tolerance, pure debt funds can be the main choice. The annualized return of good pure debt funds can reach about 6%, which is much stronger than Yu’ebao; mixed debt funds can use no more than 20% The assets of investment in stocks have certain volatility, but the risk is lower than that of index, hybrid, and stock funds. It can also be used as a part of the portfolio. Good hybrid bond-based performance is better than many index funds. Equity funds + hybrid funds: 8/14–obtain excess income ④Insurance: You have configured insurance for yourself and your family (employee medical + commercial insurance). If you have configured insurance for your family, you are responsible for your family. Through the above configuration, even if the market starts a continuous decline or enters a bear market, it will not affect my normal life. You can even buy more fund shares in a bear market or market downturn, and you can get more income when the market improves.

7 months ago

Looking at this news, we can see that the living space of the currency circle will inevitably be reduced and will be regulated by the state. The currency circle is no longer an extra-legal place in finance. The sharp decline of these virtual currencies in the currency circle has become The general trend! Perhaps for a long time in the future, these virtual currencies will show a sharp decline! As Bitcoin’s living space is gradually shrinking, gold will become more advantageous and will remain the king of risk aversion in the future! There are many reasons: First, the so-called arm can’t twist the thigh, the gold market has existed for a long time. To speak of history, it may have a history of several thousand years. In ancient times, gold trading was used until now and there is still a gold market! The reputation is very high, and the participation is also very high. There is a government endorsement to know what Bitcoin is, but you must not know what gold is! It can be said that the future safe-haven market is still gold! This is Fugu nonsense

7 months ago

I know what the subject cares about. In fact, whatever currency or asset the subject cares about is essentially “credit.” Knowing this point, the next step will be clear. What is it that can avoid credit risk? Of course it is an honest thing. The honest things that everyone agrees to are, of course, things that can accumulate these honesty. How to accumulate? Of course, tampering will inevitably leave traces, and it can be traced to the source and brought into supervision. If the Metanet network is really put into large-scale use in society in the future, then it will meet these characteristics. In addition, BTC certainly does not comply. It has destroyed the traceability of the financial chain and resisted supervision. It is destined to become a small-scale plaything.

7 months ago

Bitcoin was originally designed to fight the U.S. dollar, but in recent years, relevant investors are very afraid of it against the U.S. dollar. To put it bluntly, they are afraid of being blocked by the United States, so they have been trying to lead Bitcoin to the concept of digital gold. In 17 years, my country blocked Bitcoin, and the United States embraced Bitcoin. When Bitcoin futures were launched on CME Group, the US zf also forcedly intervened and killed several private exchanges, such as the largest spot exchange at that time bitfinex and the largest futures exchange bitmex. Supported coinbase in one hand, and now coinbase is already the place where Bitcoin spot prices are priced. There are various signs that the United States has fully grasped the pricing power of Bitcoin, which may also be the reason why China, India, Turkey and other countries have blocked it. At present, the role of Bitcoin is a perfect speculative product. Due to the lack of supervision, the Bitcoin market is a completely primitive capital game plate, much like the US stocks more than 100 years ago, which is seen by ordinary retail investors. The opportunity to get rich, as far as institutions are concerned, they see opportunities in emerging markets. If the stock market is a barometer of currency, then Bitcoin is a more sensitive place than the stock market. If the currency is over-issued, it will rise more, and if it tightens, it will also fall more. The sharp drop since April is actually a manifestation of institutions’ sensitivity to inflation expectations and policies. Gold is now a safe-haven product. The so-called hedging actually means the opposite of chasing risk. When everyone has money, all kinds of investment returns are high and unsatisfactory, and risk appetite increases. They will chase high-risk and high-yield investments. This is how the Bitcoin bull market of 17 and 20 years came. Conversely, risk aversion means that when other markets do not see good returns, the funds flow back to the US dollar to maintain its value, and at this time gold is more valuable than the US dollar.

7 months ago

Any country’s market will try to avoid short-term speculation of hot money and excessive stock fluctuations. A decentralized market without supervision can only become a casino, which has been verified countless times in human history. It is not that the big fish eats the small fish, the small fish eats dried shrimps, and the dried dried shrimps eat seaweed, but the big fish inhales the small fish, dried dried shrimps and seaweed completely in one breath. Banker: Only children make choices, and adults do all. The bookmaker relies on its large size advantages, including the ability to manipulate the market and public opinion to promote benefits, etc., and there are many methods that can quickly pull up, or quickly retreat and then crazily hit the market. And all the small players who are lucky enough to have a mouthful of soup, then they will be bankrupted in an instant when the main force retreats. Decentralization, another meaning of this word is that no country or central bank endorses your investment. The market has fallen too far, and there will often be a central bank. When financial risks affect the real economy, the stock market crash may evolve into a financial crisis. This is unacceptable to the country. After the digital currency mining disaster, all countries did not conduct blood transfusions, but waited and watched, then took two sips, and then made up two shots. Let the gambler die a little easier.

7 months ago

Virtual currencies are obviously not safe-haven assets, especially those who buy at high positions. In my understanding, this kind of volatility in gold will not be too great, even if it falls, it is safe-haven assets that have a bottom. When virtual currency falls, it is all the way to zero, which is obviously a greater risk. How can it be hedging? Only in some turbulent countries, the financial markets have completely collapsed. The national fiat currency may, is about to be, or has become a waste of paper, such as Turkey some time ago, and which small country a few years ago. At this time, we can only pin our hopes on the international market. In my country’s stable financial market, changing legal currency into virtual currency is a pursuit rather than a hedging. The reason for chasing risks is naturally to pursue corresponding high returns, hoping to earn money and then exchange it back into legal currency. It is a radical investment tool rather than a safe-haven asset.

7 months ago

The topic of the dispute between Bitcoin and gold has been very popular recently. Due to the rising price, the total market value of Bitcoin has already entered the top ten of US stocks. “Bitcoin’s price has risen from a few cents to a maximum of 60,000 US dollars in the past ten years. Even if it plummets, it is now around 40,000 US dollars. It has already proven its value. It is gradually approaching global mainstream assets, similar to For investment targets such as gold, houses, and bonds.” A Bitcoin researcher said. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon even predicted that “significant changes” will occur in the digital currency field in the next few years. He said: “This is a constantly evolving field, and I think there will be great changes in the development of this field in the next few years.” Regarding some of the challenges facing the cryptocurrency field, he added: “There are major challenges around us. Regulatory restrictions, we play a principled role around Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.” Compared with gold, Solomon said: “I think the market value of Bitcoin will inevitably be the same as gold, and then eventually higher than gold. Because people are concerned about Bitcoin. The rate of acceptance and input of the company is faster than I predicted.” He still believes that Bitcoin is an asset. In the interview, he never described Bitcoin as a payment mechanism. He believes that Bitcoin “is more like gold than a digital asset in the payment network, so its value will continue to rise in the next few years.” Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Fund and the female stock god who is known as the female version of Buffett, has always supported Bitcoin. , The “tsunami” in the currency circle on the 19th, she said: “I still think that the price of Bitcoin will reach 500,000 US dollars. Bitcoin is currently experiencing a runaway, but it is not necessarily at the bottom.” Recently called Bitcoin “rebellion” Tesla CEO Musk also spoke on the occasion of the 19th plunge. He said that “Tesla has a Diamond Hand”, and the Diamond Hand refers to those who hold firm positions. This is considered to be Tesla’s firm hold. There are bitcoins in hand, even though their value has now shrunk by half. In contrast, gold rose to a new high in the past four months, and gold is shining. When Bitcoin liquidated, gold rose from US$1851.6 per ounce to US$1,889.59 per ounce, setting a new high since January 11. . “The price of gold has dropped a lot from the high level. There are indeed some investors who bought the bottom of gold recently, especially during the May 1st period. After the price of gold broke 1,800 US dollars per ounce, I think the short-term bottom has been established, and the possibility of future upswing has increased. I see that the target of $1,900 per ounce may fluctuate during the period, but the overall bottom will rise.” Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief gold analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, told a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald. The latest data released by the World Gold Council show that global gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) holdings continued to decline in April, but the speed has slowed down significantly. Among them, the size of European gold ETF funds has increased for the first time since January. Statistics show that during the month, the total gold ETF holdings decreased by 18.3 tons (approximately US$1.1 billion, and the asset management scale decreased by 0.5%, the same below), which is the fifth month in which there has been a net outflow in the past six months. North American funds (especially US funds) still dominate the net outflow of global gold ETFs, with holdings reduced by 28.4 tons (1.6 billion U.S. dollars, -1.6%). On the contrary, with the contributions of funds from France, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, European gold ETFs achieved a net inflow of 10.6 tons ($514 million, +0.6%). Asian listed funds reversed the strong momentum in the first quarter of this year and recorded a small outflow of 0.5 tons (13 million U.S. dollars). Among them, China’s gold ETF fund holdings decreased by 2 tons (111 million U.S. dollars, -2.8%). Indian fund holdings continued to grow, adding 1.3 tons ($84 million, +4.4%) in April. The report pointed out that the global gold ETF asset management scale has fallen by nearly 14% since its peak in November 2020, 8% of which is due to the outflow of gold ETFs, and 6% is due to the drop in the dollar gold price caused by the sell-off. The World Gold Council said that the recent strength of gold can be attributed to the weakness of the US dollar, gold prices catching up with the strong performance of other commodities in the “re-inflation” cycle, the increase in fiscal stimulus measures and the central bank’s continued easing stance. Chen Sijie, an analyst at Huatai Futures, said that the Fed’s policymakers have repeatedly emphasized that the recent surge in inflation is only temporary and reiterated that interest rates are expected to remain at a low level. The Fed is determined to stimulate the economy through low interest rates and buying bonds until the gap in production and employment is completely closed, and is prepared to tolerate price increases higher than the target to a certain extent. However, on the 19th, overall commodities fluctuated greatly, and crude oil prices fell sharply, which led to the overall weakness of industrial products. To a certain extent, this may have a negative impact on inflation expectations. Superimposed on the dollar index rebounded from a low level, the price of precious metals has also shown a situation where the price of precious metals has risen and fallen. However, in terms of current operations, since the Fed’s meeting minutes are still dovish, the dollar’s ​​rebound may still be difficult to sustain under such circumstances. Therefore, for precious metals, they are still doing bargain-hunting. Many ideas are the main. Open Source Securities Zhao Wei’s team clearly stated that Bitcoin cannot replace gold for the time being and become the king of risk aversion. Zhao Wei’s team stated that Bitcoin currently does not have the property of hedging, and the price trend is closely related to the easing of mainstream central bank policies. Since September 2020, Bitcoin has continued to lead the global capital market; some market views believe that Bitcoin will replace gold and become the world’s new king of safe-haven assets. Gold and U.S. bonds can become high-quality safe-haven assets due to their ability to hedge risk appetite from falling, and they have the characteristics of low volatility, high liquidity, and large market value. Compared with safe-haven assets such as gold, Bitcoin has high volatility, poor liquidity, and very small market capitalization. Looking back on historical data, and during the period of drastic adjustment of risk assets, Bitcoin often falls simultaneously. Historical data shows that Bitcoin and gold frequently deviate from trends, and there is no stable correlation with the VIX index, which measures risk appetite. Since 2018, the U.S. S&P 500 Index has undergone three drastic adjustments, with declines of 8.5%, 19.1%, and 33.7% respectively. During the same period, Bitcoin has fallen sharply by 21.6%, 37.5%, and 32.4%, which is far inferior to gold, etc. Safe-haven assets. Bitcoin does not yet have the attributes of risk aversion; however, due to the ability to perform some general equivalent functions and the relative scarcity of the quantity, the price of Bitcoin actually implies the expectation of becoming a global “value-preserving currency”, which is in the stage of “large water release” by mainstream central banks Often soaring. In the short to medium term, with the accelerated recovery of the global economy under the support of vaccines and the expected rise in the withdrawal of mainstream central bank policies, Bitcoin price fluctuations may increase. In the long run, whether Bitcoin can truly become a global “value-preserving currency” is closely related to the development of digital currency and changes in regulatory policies. The above answer is from 21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Maisui

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