To actively respond to the aging of the population, my country will introduce major policies and measures. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on May 31. The meeting pointed out that further optimizing the childbirth policy, implementing the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting supporting measures will help improve my country’s population structure and implement the national strategy to actively respond to population aging. Maintain our country’s human resource endowment advantages. (Xinhua News Agency) ​

Good thing, the data is more detailed. The two-child policy was opened in 2016, and 17.23 million people were born in 2017, of which 51% were second-child. Since then, the situation of “two children accounting for more than half of newborns” has never been reversed. So this reveals a lot of issues that were not discussed seriously in the past in the data: the opening of the second-child policy is a release of the willingness to bear children. Will this release continue? (No ですね, quick answer); The proportion of the second child is too high, is there a polarization in the willingness to bear children? Some people barely give birth, while others still want to give birth? (Yes ですね, quick answer); Behind this divergence in willingness to reproduce, does it reflect the divergence in family income, assets, and expectations for the future? (Covered and dragged away). The data of the second child (too lazy to find specific), 16 years is about 8.3 million, 17 years is about 8.7 million, 18 years is about 7.6 million, 19 years is about 8.3 million, and 20 years is about 6 million. Anyway, it was tilted, flattened, and then dropped down, like the stock price of leeks being fooled in. Opening up the second child did not save the downward trend in fertility. Especially in the two years when the accumulated willingness to give birth has been released almost. Shandong’s second child accounted for 25% of the country back then. What about now? After the accumulated willingness to bear children has been released, the next step is to rely on the starting line of the respective families, especially if the assets and monthly income can break through a critical point of local fertility costs. The opening of the third child is nothing more than a re-engraving of the second child’s picture. It is estimated that the number of new newborns will only be one-tenth to one-fifth of the second child’s. And after the release was over, it still fell. I personally welcome this type of policy. One is to open if you can. It is paradoxical in itself to say that the fertility plummet needs to be dealt with seriously while restricting fertility; the second is to increase the granularity of the data to more intuitively reflect social reality. This kind of social governance that gradually liberalizes one child, two children and three children is rare in human history. The layer-by-layer data formed in this process can actually describe very clearly the ability of each social class to achieve reproductive results. If we can tabulate the data of families with two or three children and the corresponding assets, I estimate that a valley-like curve can be formed: higher and lower assets, urban core areas and rural suburbs, the fertility rate will be higher, and the fertility rate will be higher. Participation will also be high. The valley area is likely to be the small middle class, small white-collar workers, and small townspeople, whose income and place of residence belong to the “embarrassed zone” of the city. It is precisely because there are no policy restrictions that they can truly demonstrate their ability to transform their willingness to reproduce: not not wanting to have children, but not being able to give birth. It’s time to write a thesis “On the Influencing Factors of the Middle and Lower Class Fertility in Urbanization” (I suddenly thought: Are worker ants and bees incapable of reproduction?) The picture scroll slowly unfolds, good thing.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

Does China have a population crisis? No. The so-called population decline is actually a crisis of market size and a crisis of consumption power. The best policy is to increase disposable income, the middle policy to increase jobs, the lower policy will only revolve around the population. The consumption power of 300 million people in the United States far exceeds 1.4 billion Chinese, which means that there are 600 million more people, and 50% of their monthly income is killed by mortgages, because 996 is the practice of two people doing four people’s work and three people’s wages. What consumption power can we keep? How can a population without spending power retain economic development? What’s more, it is not a question of how many births, but a question of whether or not to give birth. A local tyrant with an annual income of 50 million, a 100,000 middle class with an annual income of 200,000, and a house price of 100,000 per year, and a local tyrant with an annual income of 30 million, a 200,000 middle class with an annual income of 150,000, and a house price of 50,000 per year. Which one can liberate consumption power? , Which can better lay the global importance of the Chinese market, and make the internal circulation worry-free, which can be seen at a glance.

7 months ago

In the past, everyone complained about it, but now that professional women are seeking jobs, there is fertility discrimination. Among them, the most discriminated against is those who are married and have not given birth, because they may give birth at any time. Of course, if you give birth to one, the manpower will also ask you if you have a second child plan. What if you don’t plan to give birth? I saw a post a few days ago; I can only say that it will be more difficult for women to find jobs in the future. After giving birth to a second child, others will also ask you if you have a third child plan. What if you have a third child? Okay, there are three babies in the family to take care of, what energy do you have for a career?

7 months ago

In 2017, I talked to my teacher about this issue in Russia. The teacher said that the Russian government has tried every means to encourage childbirth: The housing subsidy for newlyweds can be up to 45% (regional) based on the childbirth status to fully solve the problem of raising, that is to say from The state is fully responsible for the child’s pregnancy, until the child graduates from high school, during the period of examination, production, milk powder, changing mats, and elementary school to high school education expenses. The top 30% of the students after the college entrance examination continue to enjoy tuition-free treatment. The one-time reward after the child is born is about 35,000 rubles. During the Soviet period, after giving birth to multiple children, the Soviet Chairman would personally award the Medal of Hero Mother. Then my teacher asked our Chinese students, I heard that China will also open up childbirth, do you have any incentive policies? We looked at each other, it was already very hard to raise one, so I didn’t dare to think too much. . When I wake up, it’s over 5k. Then I will comment on the points of interest and doubts in the comment area. First of all, it’s not “why policy benefits are so high and Russia’s fertility rate is so low”, it’s just the opposite, because the policy benefits are so high because the fertility rate has been so low. There are many reasons for the low fertility rate. I have also talked to many Russian friends on this issue. The reasons include but are not limited to the following: 1. Social welfare is too high, but the salary is too low, so there is nothing. There is nothing left of savings for the next generation, which has led to the Russians’ current consumption concept of being drunk and drunk. For example, my university teacher’s salary was only about 2,000 yuan before being a professor, and even a professor was only about 5,000. 2. There is another situation. In fact, the Russians are more reluctant to marry the woman in their attitude towards marriage. This situation is particularly obvious in the Moscow area. The reason is the same as in China. Because the housing prices in Moscow are very expensive, Russian girls worry that the house will be divided after divorce, so most couples just live together but do not get married. Why don’t boys worry about it? Because Russian men are generally very scumbags and rarely work hard, single mothers are the most common in Russia. 3. Haven’t played enough yet. 4. National character. ……But this low fertility rate and indifferent attitude has led to a better concept: equality between men and women, even because women take on most of the work in society (because there are more girls than boys), women have a higher social status some. In recent years, the population of Russia has increased a bit due to immigration. A decade ago, Russia’s population was still growing negatively. You can still see babies on the streets of Russia.

7 months ago

Really this policy, young friends will not laugh after reading it, and take care of those who are willing to give birth, hurry up and get a third child. After relaxing the upper limit on the number of births, it is almost impossible to reward three births. Let’s see if those able to give birth can improve our country’s deteriorating number of births in one fell swoop. The attitude of the high-level is very clear. Those who are willing to give birth to many children, the future of the motherland belongs to you. If you are willing to follow, you will also have one or two to accompany you. If you are unwilling to give birth, regardless of your reason, I don’t bother to care about you. You have to find out more from your own body, don’t rely on the teacher, don’t talk about the school, don’t call any classmates to affect you. So that’s it, I won’t say much about the effect of the onlookers policy…

7 months ago

Now the whole network is telling one thing, that is, the three-child policy has been released. In fact, for many people, the three-child policy is just a notice telling you that this can be done. Internet-“You can give birth to three children!!!” I-“Oh.” It is more important than whether you want to have a baby or not. How to improve everyone’s willingness to give birth may be more worthy of discussion and solution. When I was in my family, my uncle relative told my mother that he would fine him to pay, as long as my family members were willing to have a second child. But my mother still thinks life is not easy, after all, raising a child is also difficult. As a result, even after my family’s conditions gradually improved, I was still an only child… Therefore, the key to the matter of having a baby is to look at the money.

7 months ago

I asked my mother, is it okay not to get married? My mother only said: If there are fireworks outside, the neighbors in the neighborhood overflowing with food, and the family travels hand in hand on the street, you can resist crying, you can. I cried, I pretended to be. Is there such a good thing? The neighbours in the neighbourhood smelled of rice, who made it? Who washes the dishes? Who cleans up the house? Who coaxes the child? A family of four travels on the street. Have you bought a school district house? Who counsels the two children? Is the child obedient? I was shopping outside for dinner, carrying the cake and milk tea I just bought, and going home to play games and read novels. I bumped my head into the unkempt and exhausted young couple who were playing outside with their children. It was hard not to laugh. I have always thought that I came to this world not to be a mother, but to be myself! After subtracting the two plans of marriage and childbirth from your life plan, age will not create any constraints on you. You can use your whole life to chase your dreams!

7 months ago

The key is not in the three-feet, but in the support of the three-feet supporting measures. Regardless of the hostility issue, this should be regarded as real financial support, but it is hard to say how strong and effective this is. Families who have given birth during the second child’s window period should be relatively sensitive to such supporting measures. A very common phenomenon is the problem of children entering kindergarten and the corresponding elementary school. A very common phenomenon is that in recent years, the problem of entering kindergarten is not only magnified, but the number of children between classes in each kindergarten is also much higher than before. Admission to the kindergarten can hardly be regarded as a more obvious problem under the open two-child policy, and naturally the same is true for three-children. Because other supporting issues are still on the way, such as whether the hospital’s corresponding pediatrician resources are sufficient, whether it can ensure the healthy growth of children, whether it is necessary to increase funds to expand the hospital, and to expand the enrollment for pediatrics, these are all issues that we need to consider. . Although the current society generally has doubts about the overall effect of opening three children, the effect of the policy is still unknown without data support, so the full open fertility still needs to be looked at. There is a simple truth. What if the growth of the newborn population after the full liberalization of childbearing is beyond expectation, our existing medical and educational resources, etc. cannot keep up? If a large area of ​​school-age children cannot go to school by that time, the medical resources for infants are in short supply. How to deal with it? Of course, in terms of the current state of public opinion, everyone may think that these things happen not very likely, but in terms of policy-making considerations, this is the most appropriate consideration for “ruling a big country like cooking small fresh food.” The effect of the policy cannot be guessed, it depends on data, after all, everything must be based on reality, right? From the perspective of policy development and promotion, after the census data is released, it is already a quick response to the opening of three children, just to say where are the ideas for these problems now? I still hold the same point of view: encouraging fertility, who to encourage, where to do it, how to do it, and who pays for it is a question that can never be avoided. To put it in a realistic way, regardless of the Internet’s rants nowadays, in fact, big cities are the least equipped to encourage childbirth. The simple truth is that it is unrealistic to expect more births among residents in big cities, whether in terms of housing costs or fertility awareness. But small places do not have the conditions, and the reason is very simple, that is, there is no money. In modern society, although childbirth has gradually formed an industry, it is not a small burden for the localities, whether it is to pay for children’s medical resources, but to increase the cost of childcare education and other supporting measures. For the locality, this is an expenditure. However, due to the large differences between the regional economies, these young children born at the cost of local births will tend to flood into big cities after they become laborers, and this phenomenon of labor outflow will inevitably lead to these birthplaces. Unrequited and continued weakness. And this is a big problem facing society at present. Beijing and Shanghai do not have many newborns, but their population is a net inflow, and this net inflow data is strictly controlled. If it is not restricted, these populations The inflow rate may be faster. To put it simply: for big cities, it is too difficult to encourage childbirth, but it is easy to attract the population. Anyway, some people are willing to come, so they lack motivation. For small cities, there is no money to encourage childbirth, nor can it limit the population exodus. They are afraid of paying the price to make wedding clothes for others, so they dare not encourage childbirth. This is the most acute aspect of the current population problem. Rich places do not need to encourage childbirth, because they have enough migrants, and places without money dare not encourage childbirth because they cannot limit the exodus. But the most contradictory point lies here. The root cause of this phenomenon is the uneven and uneven development. However, if local governments are allowed to pay, based on the current fiscal status of most localities, the probability of the money is still derived from it. Land finance, the practice of using land finance money to encourage childbirth is very magical. Therefore, from the perspective of reality, the follow-up from relaxation to encouragement, whether it is socialized support through the Internet or other measures, should be planned by the state and considered from the overall situation. Compared with the introduction of the three-child policy, we may need to pay more attention to the latter.

7 months ago

Talking with the two doctors of Guoyan and Guohong, everyone discussed an absolutely “wrong” view: Under the current situation, among the many policy options for increasing fertility, the cost-effectiveness advantage is obvious: non-marital birth (policy Substantive) legalization, to make up for the shortcomings of the equalization of the policy and treatment of birth within marriage. Fertility and marriage, marriage and housing prices, housing prices and financial stability, financial stability and national destiny, the four chain of strong binding, the fertility problem can not be solved by the fertility policy. Unless one of the links of the chain is unhooked. The analysis found that the decoupling of childbirth and marriage seems to be more feasible in terms of implementation basis and policy costs. Speaking of this, the three of us immediately said: Heavy fog! We urgently need to strengthen ideological and moral construction!

7 months ago

I think that the entire social conflict is now the last layer of window paper, waiting for someone to pierce it first. Only discuss the first- and second-tier cities with very high pressure, and the performance of cities with less pressure is not very obvious at this point. Why are young people of school age unwilling to have children or even get married? First of all, housing prices are an old-fashioned question. I cannot settle in this city. How can I settle in this city? How can I persuade another person to stay in this city with me? The only choice is for both of them to leave or take a huge mortgage. In the latter case, economic pressure will be great and it will be difficult to raise a child. The former, I think it is a kind of lying down choice. Housing prices are difficult to fall back due to well-known reasons, so I don’t think it makes much sense to discuss this part, but it is indeed a big stone. Next is the key question, time. 24 hours a day, how many hours do you have to work every day? How many hours commute? Is commuting time positively related to rent and house prices? Do working hours directly affect my free time? This is actually the problem of 996, and it is not only the case of Internet companies, and many positions are working overtime. Now that there is no house, no time, what else can support raising children? money. Assuming that every young person who works overtime gets a relatively large amount of remuneration, although there is little time left in each sky, but he has more money in his hand, can he also raise a child? I find it very difficult. When I came back, the child fell asleep, and the child went to school and I hadn’t gotten up yet. I couldn’t see it for half an hour a day. Did I host the child to GitHub? How many stars do I go online every day? The above examples may not be comprehensive, but the problem I want to mention is that all difficulties can be attributed to insufficient money and time. The money is not in place because the cost of living is too high, and of course it may also be because of the lack of money. Time is not in place, working time and commuting time squeeze free time. Therefore, we are going to release the new three-child and four-child unlimited-child policy. It is difficult to solve the problem of low fertility in first- and second-tier cities. It cannot be said that the symptoms are not the root cause, but the problem is obviously not the policy. If the policy becomes the reason that prevents me from giving birth, then there should be a large number of people rushing to pay the fine. Is there anything happier than having children? The real problem lies in 996. Speaking directly, if everything is converted into value, the current contradiction is that capital is robbing the state of value. Having three children, paying taxes, and bearing the cost of education and living may increase personal pressure, but the society as a whole has improved, and most of the value you generate is given to the country. 996, work overtime, bear the rent and cost of living, not be sterile, and personal pressure is also great, but you seem to have more money to invest in yourself, but the society as a whole has not improved, and most of the value you generate is given capital. But now there is a more uncomfortable problem, the two are beginning to interweave, such as housing prices. From a macro perspective, I think it is urgent to solve these problems. The contemporary youth is like a sponge full of water. If the pressure is high, the water can be squeezed out, but if the pressure is high, the sponge will be flat. In this way, it is also said that lying flat is an irresponsible behavior. I can fight for the country, but I cannot fight for the capital and housing prices. So I lie flat, I want to go back to my hometown in the future and enjoy the ordinary life. This layer of window paper is either capital pierced first, or the state pierced first. I personally prefer the latter.

7 months ago

The core question is “willing to have a child or not”, not “whether to let go of the three children”. Therefore, whether to let go or not has little effect on the fertility rate of newborns. The two babies in my family now feel exhausted even if there are elderly people helping them. For those families where there is no elderly to help and both husband and wife have to work, it is really not easy to bring two babies. Although the ease of bringing a baby depends on the attitude of bringing a baby, but in the current environment, who can do the sheep-herding style of raising a baby? Letting go of the three children, the final result may be that the very few families who have the conditions to be a full-time mother, or even better financial conditions, can afford high-quality full-time childcare and nanny tutoring their children, may have three or even four children. child. For those very few families who don’t care about children’s education, as long as they eat and wear, they may have three or even four children. For the majority of families who come from the middle class, it is indeed not easy for two babies, let alone three children. Therefore, I don’t think that letting go of three children can obviously stimulate fertility hospitals and improve the current demographic structure.

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