This weekend can be said to be a weekend for all people to sleep at ease. Why do you say that? The reason is that a lot of good news was released during the weekend, which affected the trend of the A-share market, but I did not expect that so much good news only lasted for half an hour in A-shares. What happened? Why is the A-share market still deducting into a plummeting market? Why did the intraday plunge suddenly?
In the past two weeks, Mr. Market once again taught you to be a man with a classic case: when the market wants to adjust, it is so fierce. I can’t remember how many times I have opened higher and lowered the big Yinxian in this period of time. Fortunately, if you take a closer look at the articles published on each trading day during the recent period, you would at least be too surprised by this kind of not rising but falling instead, because starting from the fake rebound on March 3, today’s article is mainly for analysis and reminders. Risk-based. Everyone will not be in a good mood when it falls. Say something that makes you happy. For example, since last week, I have seen the index direction quite accurately, right? Is it possible to avoid this slump perfectly? Of course not, I have also lost money these days. The reason is that, as I said before, it is very difficult for us to trade professionally and completely short positions. You will always have a bottom position and a trend position configuration. This kind of position encounters this kind of market, even if it is not severely injured, it is inevitable to be smashed. Trading is a long-term activity, or even a lifetime activity. You can count on accurate bottom hunting and top escape every time, with full positions at the bottom and empty positions at the top. That only exists in Shuangwen’s novels. We still have to deal with each specific situation steadily. Trading is also an activity that always looks forward, so let’s discuss how to look and how to do it next. Here, I don’t want to use technical analysis, I want to use emotional logic analysis. I always feel that in the face of big market fluctuations, the guiding role of emotional logic is to exceed the technical trend. Let’s start: I used to say a point of view before, but you can still move it directly: if your point of view comes from the reaction of seeing the market’s rise and fall, then there is a high probability that it is wrong. For example, after a certain block has skyrocketed continuously, and you see this kind of continuous skyrocketing, and you have an optimistic idea of wanting to buy, then there is a high probability that it is wrong. (Because the sector has entered a consistent climax stage) Similarly, if you have panic and want to sell because you have seen continuous plunges, then there is a high probability that it will be the ultimate performance. Let’s go back to today’s board and feel, who still doesn’t believe that the gu disaster is coming? Who else would think that the Shanghai Composite Index can return to 3,600 points in the short term? If you feel abnormally panic right now, more panic than the previous two weeks, then you can clarify what caused this panic. What is the manifestation of panic? This panic is not a superficial emotion, but a reaction expectation: For example, someone told you at this time that the market will fall another 20% because of the wave of fund redemptions, which forced the public offering to continue to sell the core. assets. When you hear such a point of view, even if you are unwilling to accept it, you have no power to refute it. Deep down you feel: The possibility is great, but can it not happen? This is the manifestation of extreme panic. You already believe it deep in your heart. However, in fact, the reason why you accept the view that the market will continue to plummet in your heart is not because of the wave of fund redemptions, but that the market has fallen into such a dog. If it was a week ago and the market hasn’t fallen that much, if you are a strong bullish person, and someone told you that the fund redemption wave might trigger a plunge, you have a reason to cope with it. Every time it plunges, we seem to hope to find a culprit, a reason: for example, what US ten-year Treasury bonds have soared, such as what fund redemption wave. As the market plummets, we are strengthening the role of this culprit and forcibly linking short-term trends to them emotionally. In the past, the weekly IPO financing quota, volume, U.S. stock market trend, national index futures, etc., a new indicator and new term appeared every once in a while. Do you say that they have no influence on the market trend? Yes, but not so big, not so big as to be linearly related. What makes them realize linear correlation is emotion. Let’s go back to the disk, and let’s not say anything else, at least we have proved one thing: the bearish sentiment here has reached a near extreme. The next step is: all bearish, but the market has not fallen, that is, it has entered the stage of bottoming. Therefore, the red letter above is the next key observation point. Trading on the right is the continuous sideways of the market (or after a continuous small rebound), and then a drop is a buying point. On the left side of the transaction, every time-sharing drop after today is a buying point for opening a position. Of course, there are two points to be reminded: for this kind of large-scale decline, building the bottom is a relatively long process. Don’t have too much expectations for the rebound height in the initial stage. The key is the duration of the rebound. The absolute lowest point may not be now, it may appear in the bottom-building stage, but this lowest point is of little practical significance. It’s a relatively random thing. So, after experiencing a big drop, let’s think about it in reverse. What should you understand by market volatility? In my understanding: in a normal market, there should be ups and downs, and downs and ups. It has risen a lot, so it is normal to fall. If it falls too much, can it not rise? Establish and maintain your own effective analysis framework, and don’t be kidnapped by the current ups and downs.