This weekend can be said to be a weekend for all people to sleep at ease. Why do you say that? The reason is that a lot of good news was released during the weekend, which affected the trend of the A-share market, but I did not expect that so much good news only lasted for half an hour in A-shares. What happened? Why is the A-share market still deducting into a plummeting market? Why did the intraday plunge suddenly?

In the past two weeks, Mr. Market once again taught you to be a man with a classic case: when the market wants to adjust, it is so fierce. I can’t remember how many times I have opened higher and lowered the big Yinxian in this period of time. Fortunately, if you take a closer look at the articles published on each trading day during the recent period, you would at least be too surprised by this kind of not rising but falling instead, because starting from the fake rebound on March 3, today’s article is mainly for analysis and reminders. Risk-based. Everyone will not be in a good mood when it falls. Say something that makes you happy. For example, since last week, I have seen the index direction quite accurately, right? Is it possible to avoid this slump perfectly? Of course not, I have also lost money these days. The reason is that, as I said before, it is very difficult for us to trade professionally and completely short positions. You will always have a bottom position and a trend position configuration. This kind of position encounters this kind of market, even if it is not severely injured, it is inevitable to be smashed. Trading is a long-term activity, or even a lifetime activity. You can count on accurate bottom hunting and top escape every time, with full positions at the bottom and empty positions at the top. That only exists in Shuangwen’s novels. We still have to deal with each specific situation steadily. Trading is also an activity that always looks forward, so let’s discuss how to look and how to do it next. Here, I don’t want to use technical analysis, I want to use emotional logic analysis. I always feel that in the face of big market fluctuations, the guiding role of emotional logic is to exceed the technical trend. Let’s start: I used to say a point of view before, but you can still move it directly: if your point of view comes from the reaction of seeing the market’s rise and fall, then there is a high probability that it is wrong. For example, after a certain block has skyrocketed continuously, and you see this kind of continuous skyrocketing, and you have an optimistic idea of ​​wanting to buy, then there is a high probability that it is wrong. (Because the sector has entered a consistent climax stage) Similarly, if you have panic and want to sell because you have seen continuous plunges, then there is a high probability that it will be the ultimate performance. Let’s go back to today’s board and feel, who still doesn’t believe that the gu disaster is coming? Who else would think that the Shanghai Composite Index can return to 3,600 points in the short term? If you feel abnormally panic right now, more panic than the previous two weeks, then you can clarify what caused this panic. What is the manifestation of panic? This panic is not a superficial emotion, but a reaction expectation: For example, someone told you at this time that the market will fall another 20% because of the wave of fund redemptions, which forced the public offering to continue to sell the core. assets. When you hear such a point of view, even if you are unwilling to accept it, you have no power to refute it. Deep down you feel: The possibility is great, but can it not happen? This is the manifestation of extreme panic. You already believe it deep in your heart. However, in fact, the reason why you accept the view that the market will continue to plummet in your heart is not because of the wave of fund redemptions, but that the market has fallen into such a dog. If it was a week ago and the market hasn’t fallen that much, if you are a strong bullish person, and someone told you that the fund redemption wave might trigger a plunge, you have a reason to cope with it. Every time it plunges, we seem to hope to find a culprit, a reason: for example, what US ten-year Treasury bonds have soared, such as what fund redemption wave. As the market plummets, we are strengthening the role of this culprit and forcibly linking short-term trends to them emotionally. In the past, the weekly IPO financing quota, volume, U.S. stock market trend, national index futures, etc., a new indicator and new term appeared every once in a while. Do you say that they have no influence on the market trend? Yes, but not so big, not so big as to be linearly related. What makes them realize linear correlation is emotion. Let’s go back to the disk, and let’s not say anything else, at least we have proved one thing: the bearish sentiment here has reached a near extreme. The next step is: all bearish, but the market has not fallen, that is, it has entered the stage of bottoming. Therefore, the red letter above is the next key observation point. Trading on the right is the continuous sideways of the market (or after a continuous small rebound), and then a drop is a buying point. On the left side of the transaction, every time-sharing drop after today is a buying point for opening a position. Of course, there are two points to be reminded: for this kind of large-scale decline, building the bottom is a relatively long process. Don’t have too much expectations for the rebound height in the initial stage. The key is the duration of the rebound. The absolute lowest point may not be now, it may appear in the bottom-building stage, but this lowest point is of little practical significance. It’s a relatively random thing. So, after experiencing a big drop, let’s think about it in reverse. What should you understand by market volatility? In my understanding: in a normal market, there should be ups and downs, and downs and ups. It has risen a lot, so it is normal to fall. If it falls too much, can it not rise? Establish and maintain your own effective analysis framework, and don’t be kidnapped by the current ups and downs.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

There are still many positive news on the weekend: for example, the US$1.9 trillion economic rescue plan was implemented, and the US stock market staged a major reversal last Friday; the foreign trade data for the first two months of this year was released, and the total value of my country’s trade in goods was 5.44 trillion yuan. An increase of 32.2% in the same period last year. This week will also release the February CPI, PPI and other price data and financial data. As the economic data at the beginning of the year enters the release period one after another, the economic performance at the beginning of the year will be basically clear. These good news have stimulated the three major indexes to open higher. In the morning, my own stocks rose by 3%, and when I came home from the night shift, I fell asleep. When I woke up (11:40), I found that the market was a lot of food, and I suddenly woke up and didn’t feel confused. The reason for the market crash can only be slightly known after the close, because all kinds of news were flying in the sky at that time. And we should all know that disorderly rise and fall is what the market is like. Fait accompli, investigating and analyzing the reasons will not help. If the position is heavy, just pretend to be dead. If the position is light and the stocks are of good quality, hold it firmly, and you can add more positions if you have the opportunity. I’m @木萤, a trader who is committed to business, no matter whether it goes up or down, I am with you. In addition, I recommend two big guys in the trading sector, @Jack Wang Daily output trading philosophy and trading technology ~ Official account: Chaoyan Essay, daily update of trading psychology, life philosophy, movies, psychological support, and those who are interested Friends are welcome to watch.

7 months ago

Shanghai Stock Exchange (3731-2646)*50%=524 Down 524 is 3207 From this position, you can start bargaining business (3476-1184)*50%=1146 Down 1146 is 2330 At present, both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and ChiNext have completed more than half of the downside task. If it falls at this rate, it will arrive in April. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is actually more optimistic, because it mainly contains wine, food and beverages, they are under pressure to fall, but the company’s quality is good, and this is all bottom-line. Entrepreneurship is rather miserable. One medicine and one new energy source will increase too much in 2020, and I will have to vomit for a while. There is still hope to see BYD under 100 yuan. The fall after the Spring Festival, don’t talk about the Americans, they haven’t collapsed yet. The objective reason is that most of Mao’s performance fell short of expectations after the annual report came out, and it was indeed high. In addition, insurance funds and some funds began to be sold in January, and Zhang Kun’s suspension of purchases was not entirely due to consideration of the scale of his management and the rights and interests of the citizens. Therefore, the position of 3200 is to be reached, allowing the big brothers to enter the field comfortably. If it falls below 3200, it will definitely require more negative cooperation. For example, domestic leverage reduction and US interest rate hikes have triggered a decline in global stock markets. I don’t think this kind of thing should be unfounded. China released water last year but the world is the least. The government and state-owned enterprises have a soft landing solution. The US stock market is the lifeblood of others and generally will not be cut. And the limit position is 2800. When all kinds of Mao are close to the 60-week moving average, they can buy bottoms.

7 months ago

In fact, A-shares have always been like this, but the fluctuations have been much smaller in the past two years. There is no serious economic downturn, but the growth rate of exports may slow down. Although financially withdrawing from special policies, it should not be too tight. In the first quarter, listed companies are likely to improve significantly year-on-year, but the quarter-on-quarter may not look good as expected. In real estate, local governments have not given up on regulation, so the diversion of funds is limited. In terms of the index trend, the ChiNext may have a technical bear market. In the current valuation of individual stocks, some Baotuan stocks are indeed on the high side, but the magnitude of the correction is hard to say. A large number of other non-group stocks have been falling in the second half of last year, and their valuations have dropped a lot. The external monetary policy will not be tightened in the short term. Generally speaking, personal judgment is unlikely to continue to weaken in the future. This wave of callbacks should not be so terrible. However, the early holding of stocks is worthy of vigilance. Personal current configuration, hydropower, high-speed water and gas as defense. I won’t mention the offense

7 months ago

Isn’t this normal! A shares have always been like this, but you ignorant people are making a fuss! Looking at the history, this is normal and logically speaking, when the profit capital enters the final shipment stage and rises, most people will profit from the organization.! There are many things that can be done in a day or two to cash in profits, but it’s just in time for this. So when it falls, it falls. You have to spend it on a stock. I can’t say anything, exchange time for space, and wait for the initial bottom signal to join or increase the position, or you can also change the game. Road, the track that hasn’t taken off in the past two days.! For example, software, semiconductor chips, the 14th Five-Year Plan that has changed significantly recently, photovoltaics, wind power, new energy, infrastructure, carbon neutrality, etc.

7 months ago

As a veteran who has been in the stock market for 10 years, let’s share an experience: high position and weak position are good, just run away! Low position is strong and bearish, and rush! Investment is often a comprehensive game process, you say that the benefits come out, the market can’t say what it expected. So in the short term we still look at the capital game, and in the medium and long term we look at company performance, competitiveness and valuation. So my point of view: (I also said it in my account before) Here we will continue to see adjustments in the mid-term. This is not a low point. In terms of logic, let’s say it again: The current weather vane of the entire A-share market is Kweichow Moutai, and from Friday, the broader market rebounded weakly. Kweichow Moutai fell so strongly on Friday, the rebound is still hesitant, and the trading volume is not enough, so it is judged that the mid-term adjustment will continue. This is not a low point, but even lower. Therefore, to see whether the market can stabilize, we must pay attention to whether the price of Kweichow Moutai can stabilize for several days and the trading volume has increased. Jimin keeps redeeming, and liquor keeps falling, which will result in a loss-making effect, and the constant decline drives other varieties to continue to fall. And if this loss-making effect does not stop, a strong market will not be formed, so I give you two suggestions: ①In the recent market, no matter what stocks you buy, add Kweichow Moutai to your own choice and pay attention to this market vane. ②Don’t be too optimistic for a period of time, don’t buy bottoms easily. In the end, I can see that it will fall in the near future, and I still hold a close to half position in the firm offer, but it is resistant to falling.

7 months ago

It’s totally emotional killing. Over the weekend, there were so many good things that Biden’s water was released. Some institutions took advantage of a good opportunity to take the initiative to lighten up their positions. It is possible that everyone wanted to do more at the beginning, but a traitor appeared in the middle of it, and then it turned into you and I just ran, and finally fell without resistance. At present, most public fund managers have not experienced a round of bulls and bears. Irrational fund managers, irrational foundations, and a system that can buy and sell at any time have caused the absurd decline today. If you still have no bottom line tomorrow and cannot hold the 120-day line, you will have to retreat.

7 months ago

Go directly to the main text: Stock investors can’t escape from chasing ups and downs, so the Christians are also all the same, even more stupid. The adjustment of the fund’s heavy holdings caused panic among the Christians, which led to a large-scale redemption of fund shares. The fund manager forced to lighten up the major holdings and redeem the money to the fundamentals. The more the stock market fell, the more the Christians redeemed and began to fall into a cycle. Below is the Moments of Jiangxiang Technology that I posted on the Moments of Friends on 02.24. According to the trend of that day, 1600 is not a problem. According to the trend of Women’s Day, it seems to be a foregone conclusion. There is. Don’t dabble in areas that don’t belong to your own cognition. Give up your fantasy and recognize reality. If you lose it, don’t come in again. If you make a profit, please leave immediately and don’t come in again. Your rainbow today will become stormy one day. It’s just a matter of morning and night. Give professional things to professional people.

Don’t dabble in the stock market. This is not a place that you can control.

7 months ago

After 18 years, I should be familiar with this kind of plunge. In January 18, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 collapsed and the index plummeted. How similar it is now. Specifically, I have issued many articles on warnings, and history has references. The meaning is that many people don’t believe in that evil. My main point is still those few: 1. All rebounds at this stage are rebounds, not reversals. Make no mistake. 2. The rebound needs to lighten up, because after the rebound, there will be yin drops, which fall in the second quarter and the third quarter. Again, the rebound is for lightening up, not for charging. Because after the rebound, there is still a long way to fall. For how much rebound, please refer to the above article. Outside the court, watch more and move less, reduce the frequency of operation, and don’t chase high, that’s it. Don’t be eager to try, if you want to buy the bottom, you may copy the waist. The textures are all the previous views, and they are all the same, but this view is still valid and does not need to be corrected. It can only be said that risk control is single and opportunities are diverse. To add two more points, 1. This round of plummet, although continuing the 18-year style of group plummeting, the essence is different. It was the last fall in the bear market. Now is a fall on the way to the slow bull. As for the reason for choosing such a brutal fall method, it is because the sedan chair is too heavy and there is no way to cut the leeks without violence. In addition, it is necessary to leave room for the future to rise. No matter what the nature is, it is now and now. Control is still necessary. 2. I understand this is a violent act of cutting leek in Slow Cow. I predict that the index will reach new highs from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. Since it is judged that it can reach new highs in the future, why not carry it. Because the index drops by about 10 points, individual stocks can fall by less than 50 points. Can you carry it?

7 months ago

Using the word suddenly is actually inaccurate. A shares have been in a downward channel since the beginning of the year. Some people say that the release of a lot of good news over the weekend mostly refers to the official launch of Biden’s 1.9 trillion yuan plan. It may be because of the surprisingly unified views of the major self-media, that as long as the United States continues to release water, the US stock market will be able to continue the bull market. This illogical point of view has become the mainstream. If you are a little more rational, go and check the Nasdaq, the weekly line is already three consecutive negatives. On the altar, Tesla has already fallen below the bull and bear line. Okay, let’s get back to the news of the weekend. How can you selectively ignore the bad news of Jizhong Energy’s payment of default. Anyone who knows me knows that I am a firm persuasionist in the stock market. Especially after the Baotuan stocks fell for the first time, they shamelessly said that the prelude to the collapse of Baotuan has already begun. And the collapse of the group is very likely to bring about the collapse of A shares, which are inherently fragile. I don’t want to say that the facts have proved this kind of remarks, because they are meaningless. In the turbulent history of the stock market, this kind of market and similar predictions seem superficial. I just want to talk again, why ordinary people don’t want to buy stocks and don’t buy funds. Because it is meaningless, if you win the process, you will inevitably lose to the result. I’m not saying that stock investors are novices who don’t understand financial knowledge, technical indicators, and financial statements. An important common sense here is that the essence of investing in stocks is an investment company, and the core of an investment company is that you have sufficient business vision. The premise of the so-called long-termism, you have to understand an industry, understand a company, understand the company’s competitive position, and the future growth layout and so on. I want to give a different example first. Everyone knows that this wave of fund craze is not fund managers, but online financial management classes. Among them, there is a financial management class called Wei X, which should be a top business, and the revenue is all 100 million. Then I ask you, if this company goes public, would you buy its stock? To be honest, this company is very profitable, like a cash cow. And the growth trend is also very fast. It can be said that the company started to make money in the early stage of entrepreneurship, and such companies are rare. The financial performance of the main business is much better than that of many listed companies. But such a company is not worth holding in a high probability for a long time. Why add a big probability, I will say next. The reason why it is not worthwhile is also very simple. The ceiling of the business model can be seen at a glance, and there is no room for imagination in valuation. This is one of them. The online education business has low thresholds and a large influx of competitors. The result of this is a rapid increase in the cost of traffic acquisition, which directly eats up gross profit. Micro X’s response strategy is also very simple and rude, that is, to actively increase the unit price of advertising and increase the cost of customer acquisition. This approach is a typical cost competition. When the core competition of an industry focuses on cost, it means that latecomers will become cannon fodder. The top players first rely on the capital advantage accumulated in the early stage, and the second is the conversion advantage accumulated in the back-end. But the real question is, such a course will teach you how to trade stocks, not be a leek. Can you solve the actual problem? Obviously not. If you cannot, it will be difficult to accumulate reputation, and you will inevitably need to burn money to obtain customers. Therefore, even for leading companies, if the decrease in net profit does not translate into new growth points or raise barriers to competition. Then the future must be the end of recession. If you can use financial management students to develop new products to generate new purchases, such as research and the like. The secondary utilization of traffic has been realized, and a new growth pole has been realized. If we continue to deploy to provide companies with counterpart talents, we will achieve differentiated advantages. Perhaps, there is the value of investment. But most people will not really learn business knowledge and are unwilling to improve their cognition. Just thinking about earning a lot of money through luck, it’s better to buy lottery tickets. When Buffett invested in BYD, he bought it for eight yuan. Up to now, the profit has been dozens of times. This is where everyone is envious. But if you look at the stock trend, you will find that after BYD has risen ten times, it has fallen back to nine yuan. You ask yourself whether you can bear this kind of fluctuation. One of the reasons why the old man can stand firm is the concept of long-term investment, which he has held for more than ten or twenty years. Another point, BYD’s holdings accounted for less than 1%, which is a drop in the bucket for the old man. Naturally you can sleep peacefully. Is it okay to change you, even if you are better than Buffett. I have done 25% of the annualized income every year, but the principal is only hundreds of thousands, is this kind of income proportional to the energy expended? If you really have such a powerful internal strength, what kind of stocks should you trade yourself, why not make more than that. Everyone, stop talking about funds. Isn’t the fall of the fund bad enough? This wave of stumbling down is a good thing for the fund that is enshrined in the altar. Buying a fund is equivalent to handing the money to an unfamiliar stranger, and you have to pay management fees and service fees. But he will not make any guarantees for profit or loss, nor does he have to bear any responsibility. Are you really sure that you look at people so accurately? You have no money, and then I heard that inflation will depreciate money, and only investment can help yourself. But I patted my chest and asked myself whether I entered the stock market to preserve value or speculate to make a windfall. Everyone, if you put money in the stock market, you can make stable profits. Will there be poor people in the world? I can understand that middle-aged people are trading in stocks, because most of them have stable careers and there is little room for improvement. The stock market adds a touch of color to a slightly mediocre life, and it is also a good choice as a half-hobby without hurting vitality. But for young people, precious time is used to study and quickly improve their abilities and cognition, isn’t it good? Why do you need to participate in a gamble with a high probability of losing?

7 months ago

There are generally three explanations generally accepted by the public: 1. The overestimation of core assets (Moutai, Longji, BYD and other “Mao”). 2. The increase in risk-free yields (indicated by the rise in U.S. bond yields) has led to the selling of risky assets such as stocks. 3. The redemption of funds leads to the outflow of funds on the market, which in turn triggers a large number of fund holdings to be sold. Haha, in fact, they are all self-liberation after falling into a bewildered look, trying to prove that they have always had a clear understanding of the market. In fact, what we should pay more attention to is how we deal with the fall. 1. How much is your holdings affected? Is it a signal to lighten up, or an opportunity to increase it? According to personal risk tolerance, or the strength of nerves. The position size control is based on the principle that you can make a calm judgment on the market ups and downs. 2. Has the logic of holding positions changed? Does the logic of buying at that time still exist? If the logic already exists, then lighten up or sell. If there is no change, just work with peace of mind, and leave it to the market to judge what is right or wrong. In short, the principle is that you can sleep peacefully without affecting your life. Acknowledging our weak position in the market is the basis for us to live in the market. To quote a classic: Risks all rise, and opportunities fall out!

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