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Copying the current Buffett is basically useless (if you mean “copying”), there are probably two main reasons: 1. The front row replied that you copy the current Buffett, but the current Buffett rate of return Not high, his current style is based on the current amount of funds. He took out the Wells Fargo Coca-Cola and the like for you to copy, which is meaningless to you; people have dividends from high holdings, but you don’t; and if he enters some new companies that you don’t know, people You can’t imitate it just by buying a penny out of a hundred yuan. 2. Buffett’s current vision is not very good. He was opposed to Apple’s acquisition of Tesla before. The reality is that the industries that Barmans are good at are indeed inferior to a certain extent. (Not very good ≠ bad) I mainly want to talk about the topic derived from this, to put it plainly, off-topic. Buffett’s ideas are worthy of reference and study, but don’t believe him [specifically] too much. I kept repeating one sentence in my answer: Language is just a skill. As long as you have a high level of skill, the same sentence can be said to be positive or negative. Buffett is such a person. When Buffett was young, he learned Dale Carnegie’s speech, you can Baidu it, this person is the originator of “successful learning” and a master of speech. This kind of speech is often exaggerated, concise, and focused, which means it is easy to remember; the speech style has a routine, easy to grasp the hearts of the people, so it is provocative. That’s why we have a lot of words spoken by Master Ba, you will feel a kind of “simple wisdom” feeling, after listening to it, you will have a sigh similar to “Wow, investment is so simple”, as if the stock world has been disturbed. To be so calm… Buffett is also a very good at selective speech. Before buying BYD, I said that it was “not investing in a business with wheels.” Before buying airline stocks, it seems that I also said a mockery of airline stocks-I forgot the specific statement, but please believe this is definitely not made up by me. In short, we all knew later that he bought both of them. And according to Buffett’s consistent impression to us, he always says to buy those “businesses that can do well without thinking about it”, such as Coca-Cola—because human demand for sugar is engraved in the genes, so occupy It is easy for companies in this market to do well. That’s true, I agree. But has Buffett really done this in the past? Looking back at his investment in American Express, the industry is full of competition, and performance has not risen for several years. This is called “choosing a one-foot-high fence”? It is not in line with his consistent impression and his own remarks, and he has made more than one investment like this. (Updated at the end to supplement the content of this paragraph) There is also a statement I heard from before. I can’t confirm the true or false, but this style of speech is very Buffett’s feeling (meaning that even if it is compiled, it is compiled very Like his style). Does he say that he has to read 500 pages a day, or does he recommend others to read 500 pages a day? Previously, Zhihu had this question specifically to verify its feasibility. Buffett reads at least 500 pages a day, and Sun Zhengyi read more than 4,000 books for two years. How did he do it? ? ? ? Of course I understand him completely, because I also always hold a point of view: people talk casually most of the time. So maybe when Master Ba said this, he might just want to express that he likes to read books, and the specific figures are just casual talk. Coincidentally, you go and see what I said above is the style of Dell Carnegie’s speech? “Exaggeration”-exactly, that’s why I said “Even if it is made up, it fits his style very well”. (Of course, the true and false of this example is unclear, please read it, don’t take it too seriously) In summary, Buffett’s philosophy is worthy of reference and study, but don’t believe him [specifically] too much. There are many elements of words and speeches in his speech, and if you think about it more, you will find that he has many inconsistencies or inconsistencies in his words and actions. Moreover, propagating the concepts of value investment and long-term shareholding is in line with Buffett’s identity and interests today. The specifics are not listed in this article, but briefly mention: public funds like to promote long-term investment, value investment, and fixed investment for similar reasons. However, this will involve another problem: with the A-share market of the White Horse shares in the past two years, China’s Warren Buffett camp has become larger and larger. I came to a conclusion a long time ago: one cannot be a fan, because once a fan is easy to lose the ability to make rational judgments, the same is true for Buffett’s religion. For example, there are two major characteristics of my country-Brazil Christianity on the Internet: one likes to parse Buffett’s words word by word, but Master Ba’s speech is a bit half-truth; the second is in case Buffett really appears inconsistent or inconsistent. When there are different times, not only should we be guarded, but also some classic reasons will pop up, such as: This is good at admitting mistakes, or people who are not sages can do nothing. …This…the words are correct. After all, you say “good at admitting mistakes”, am I still embarrassed to be aggressive? Besides, I talked about what others did wrong and didn’t scold them. You can’t use “people are not sages” to gag others, right? If it is really bad, the saying goes: listen to what you say, watch what you do. Contradictory, inconsistent words and deeds, isn’t this two-faced? When I say the above, I am not saying that Buffett is untrustworthy or that Buffett is bragging. On the contrary, I admire Mr. Warren Buffett very much. I just express this point of view: treat everyone objectively, and treat their words and deeds objectively. It is of course a good thing to learn the ideas of others, especially for successful investors like Buffett, but you can’t feel that everything is right just because you have learned them. Otherwise, what is the difference between them and the mental fans of certain idol groups? 2020.2.5 I will update on this issue. The updated content includes: (1) Add a few Buffett’s investment cases. I do not intend to elaborate. Friends who are interested in understanding will naturally learn about it. The common features of these cases are: and It does not conform to the impression and style that Buffett has always given us, as well as some of his remarks. (2) Summarize and summarize the above-mentioned answer points, to put it plainly is to be a repeater. It won’t work without repeating it. If I say “not so good”, it will be interpreted as “bad”, and say “so-so” will be interpreted as “not good”. What can I do? Had to repeat it slightly. First (one): 1. American Express (second time). In 1991, Buffett bought American Express for the second time. In the past few years, American Express not only suffered from sluggish performance, but almost no growth in revenue and profits. The industry faced fierce competition from visa and mastercard. At this time, Buffett himself was prepared to give up. of. Later, Buffett met a person familiar with the industry while playing golf. After in-depth exchanges with him, he not only chose to persist, but also continued to increase his position. Until 1995, the net profit of American Express continued to grow, and the U.S. stock market was in a bull market. American Express’s investment was very successful. So the question is, is this really consistent with the impression Buffett has given us? And in the end, what made Buffett choose to persist and increase the position? It is a judgment made after communicating with more professional people in the industry. 2. GEICO, also mentioned in the front row answer. At the end of 51, Buffett concentrated his positions on GEICO. Not only that, he also asked his father to make a secured loan of $5,000 to buy GEICO. To put it bluntly, he had a heavy position + leverage on one stock. Moreover, as an insurance company, GEICO is not a “white horse stock” in our current concept. At that time, GEICO was just a small regional insurance company. Of course, Buffett was right in the end, and the specific details are not shown here. So the problem comes again. In fact, GEICO is completely a small-cap growth stock, which does not conform to the Pakistan-style stock selection in our traditional impression and the consistent remarks of the Pakistani master, not to mention that he is still heavily leveraged. 3. Buffalo Evening News. In 1976, Buffett bought nearly half of his assets. After buying, he took the initiative to compete with competitors. Not to mention the successive losses of the company, it almost went bankrupt due to other reasons. A few years later, the competitor was dragged to death, and the Buffalo Evening News subsequently turned losses into profits and successfully turned into a “dilemma reversal stock.” So, buying nearly half of the assets is another heavy position, right? The vicious competition almost went bankrupt, and finally dragged down the opponent to realize the reversal. All of the above are in line with Buffett’s consistent remarks and impressions given to us? There are many cases of this kind, and I don’t know the details enough, so let’s stop here. Anyway, the same sentence, interested friends will naturally understand. Again (two): I still need to reiterate the point of this answer, although this answer seems to be criticizing Buffett-if you want to interpret it like this, it is a misunderstanding. My core theme is very clear: Buffett is a master of words that spreads correct ideas. His ideas are worth learning, and many of his remarks are correct, but he has a lot of [specific remarks], don’t believe it too much, because the words are very technical. His real investment style is also different from his usual impression and his usual speeches. Not to mention more, just look at the examples mentioned above. It is either a reversal of difficulties or small-cap growth, which is the same as our traditional impression. Pakistani price investment is completely different. And there is another point, saying that method A is correct does not mean that the opposite method B is wrong. It is very likely that both are correct, but the right people are different. The idea that Buffett spread is correct, but there are hidden lines behind it: the correct A method is simpler for you, and as a master, I have a better B method.


By zhiwo

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8 months ago

Buffett said: Because no one wants to get rich slowly. The problem is that ordinary people can’t get rich at all when they get rich. Buffett’s success has three elements: 1. His own professional vision and perseverance are the core capabilities. 2. He uses other people’s money to be able to endure the annual income of 20%-30%. His fund earns 20% every year, and his early assets can increase hundreds of times thousands of times. If you use your own funds and earn 20% a year, if you have 1 million, you will earn 200,000 a year. If you are full-time stocks, it will be unsustainable. Because I earn 200,000 yuan a year, there is not much left after the expenses, and the funds are not growing at all. If you encounter a loss year, such as losing 10% and spending 10%, 1 million will become 800,000. If you make another 20% in the next year, you will still get less than 1 million after you remove the expenses. If this goes on, the whole is still losing money. If you are not full-time stock trading, you will definitely not have so much time to study stocks, and you have to learn from Buffett. The annualized income may not reach 20%. You know, Buffett is not just full-time stock trading, he also has a whole team to help him stocks stocks together. 3. The long bull in the US stock market cannot be copied. For Buffett’s success, the subjective factor is his own ability, and the objective factor is the American long bull. Let Buffett buy A-shares. Ten years ago, it was 3000 points and ten years later it was 3000 points. Can he make so much money? Bankruptcy is possible. The characteristics of A-shares are that they do not open for three years, and the market is dominated by speculation. Basically, there is a bull market in ten years. During the bull market, you make a lot of money, and you can work safely and make money at other times. A speculative approach suitable for A shares. Most people in a bear market cannot make money, and if they don’t lose money, they are among the best. During the bull market period, it is not called stocks if it does not double more than that. Normally, two or three times are required to be considered qualified. Even if one round of bull market can earn three times, the average annual return after ten years is only 30%. If the compound interest factor is taken into consideration, the annualized return rate is only about 10%. Anyone’s investment philosophy can be learned and used for reference, and no one’s successful model can be copied. Chairman Mao taught us that we must seek truth from facts when trading stocks, and do not copy the experience of successful people.

8 months ago

Witnessing the flying operation of Old Basao this year, the training class and live of “Learning/Copying Buffett’s Value Investment Philosophy” are about to disappear for a while. Buffett like this is the one I respect. For the benefit of shareholders, the rapid retreat was optimistic about increasing the position last month, and the one-click liquidation and running away next month. The market fell so much and basically didn’t buy a stock. , Even decades of reputation have been abandoned, he is not the spokesperson of the capital demon in the world, then who is? (Musk: Buffett only reads financial reports, which is very boring. I am not afraid of the new crown and the law for the great revival of capitalism. I am the spokesperson for capital. Hey!) If it was during the Coca-Cola era, Buffett would have had this courageous richest man now. Up. (I tend to get older and start to return to the basics. The name is already bearish. On the contrary, the operation is getting more and more old. 00 will just embark on the altar of value investment and still hold it a bit, but before CNPC reduces its shareholding, it will send an ordinary letter. You can still get a glimpse of the Tiger’s claws. It may feel that it’s not worth bothering to operate a reputation in a place like hk, compared to making money.) To add an explanation of why Buffett is talking nonsense now. Some people may know that Buffett was relatively shy when he was young, so he went to a class of success master Carnegie. Judging from the Berkshire shareholders meeting, the results are still leveraged. This allows Buffett to fully grasp the ability to say right and wrong, and vice versa… But in fact, in the classic case of GEICO, is the key to calculating the company’s value? It’s not. First of all, Buffett studied macro issues every day, World War II, and the Korean War. At that time, there were not many so-called “stock investors” in the United States. Secondly, GEICO at that time was not a big white horse like Ping An of China, but a small regional insurance company that was in danger and was about to go bankrupt. In the eyes of outsiders, buying this company is similar to what p2p and blockchain are investing in now. Well, in the end, Buffett bought up his position and even welded the money for his own house purchase. Afterwards, he felt that 75% of his position was too small. This behavior is like a gambler all in Bitcoin. And what Buffett does on the Blue Chip Stamp is no different from what ofo Mobike. He collects customer deposits and invests (gambling money), and the level above this is the funds of Munger, Rick Guerin, and David Gottesman. Collusion, doing a lot of leveraged operations in the gray area. The main carrier of leverage is the three listed companies jointly controlled by them (Blue Chip Stamp, Diversified Retailing, Wesco). Their financial operations are dazzling, they have put their leverage to the limit, and even the mortgage loan used to buy a house with the bank has been embezzled for stock trading. Isn’t this the routine of Yao Zhenhua and Wu Xiaohui? If you want to come, you will recite the Baman quotations. . First ask if it is, then ask why. Buffett’s quarterly positions must be announced in accordance with regulations. Someone has counted them, and you will not lose much when you buy them. But there is a paradox here, that is, you have to copy Buffett from the past to be useful, because his current rate of return is only 10%+, which can’t satisfy the dream of getting rich, but if you look back on the past, how can you find the past in Wanjun? What about Buffett? It is better to look back and buy Coca-Cola and Moutai when it goes public. As for why Buffett can talk to Zhuang in the past, I have said more than once. Don’t believe the nonsense Buffett now. The correct reference frame for his young man’s operation should be Yao Zhenhua and Xu Xiang. At that time, if you could follow his Zhuang , There is a high probability that they can be mixed into a generation of heroes, just like his and Schloss’s apprentices, the 30% rate of return has been maintained for more than ten or twenty years, and several generations of wealth are free. And to become Buffett, you have to have an energetic confidante like Mrs. Graham, a lawsuit like Munger + a local snake, and a whitewashed insurance company to make float money. You have to be pure-hearted, and the six relatives don’t recognize it. You can only do it for fifty to sixty years. If you want to come, you won’t like it…

8 months ago

Not possible. It’s simple, first, you don’t know. Companies like Berkshire Hathaway only disclose their positions every 45 days in accordance with the requirements of the US SEC. You know the position, you don’t know when he bought it, and whether there is any band operation in the middle. Second, even if you know from the news what company Buffett bought, you are too late to buy it. He has already bought it, and the price will not be the same. And after Buffett buys it, the stock will rise as a result, and what you buy will usually be more expensive. Third, even if he buys less, he still has the opportunity to increase, and he can buy it at a discount. He is willing to buy old stocks and it is easy to find existing shareholders to do large transactions with him. You can’t, you can only buy in the secondary market, either out of stock or too expensive. Fourth, he can hold it for ten years, and you can’t help it. If you can bear it, you can make money without following him. Fifth, he has hedging methods such as futures and derivatives, but you don’t.

8 months ago

Suppose you have 10 yuan in your pocket and your goal is financial freedom. What do you want to do? I suggest you buy a pack of cigarettes, ask your boss to give you a lighter, and find a place to smoke it yourself. It will take a lot of time to calm down after smoking 20 cigarettes. Otherwise, even if you achieve an annualized income of 2000%, you will not be able to bear this kind of blow. But if you have a certain amount of money, you can try it. After all, you have to suffer as early as possible. It is not a bad thing to be more mature in thought than your peers. This kind of entertainment is also considered harmless. Anyway, it’s not necessary to keep money in the hands of some people… Yield is one thing, cost is another. It’s another thing whether you can play when others play, and whether you can afford it is another. . It is not important to buy stocks. It does not matter even if you buy a bottom or take a buy. Those who are waiting for the bottom to rebound are full of the bottom. The question is the same long-term investment as Buffett. My father chose a stock almost 20 years ago and invested more than 100,000 yuan. After he realized that the stock is not reliable at all, he left the market more than ten years later and discovered that this gadget called Kweichow Moutai was still a little more interesting. If he hadn’t said that my mother hadn’t even known that there was a little money in the family at the time, the core strategy would be a wave. If you make a profit, you will be happy, and if you lose, nothing will happen. Stock trading is a comprehensive product of metaphysics and personal strength. Metaphysics is a question of mentality. It is like asking a monk to treat a disease. After the cure, you can say that it is effective. If it is not cured, you will get a free gift in advance. As for personal strength, that is not something that can be done by learning.

8 months ago

Not so naive, you carefully study Buffett’s operating methods and stock trading experience. He owned an insurance company in the early days. In the early days, he was using the insurance company’s floating funds to trade in stocks. He also said that this is the lowest cost way of stock trading. Learn from him. If you can get a photo of an insurance company in China, then you are a billionaire. What kind of stocks are you still playing with? Another point is that many companies that Buffett invests in are major shareholders. Do you know what major shareholders mean? He can force dividends. He feels that the management is not good. He can change the management. In short, he invests in the listed companies he invests in. You have the right to speak. If you have studied Buffett’s stock trading history, he has done all these things. In addition, Buffett still has a lot of cash in his hands. Every time a financial crisis, there are many big men in the United States who want to ask for help like Buffett. Why, he has cash in his hand, and why should I buy your stock? You give it to me. Good returns! After you understand this, you will know that value investing is not so easy to do! As for the other answers, it’s a bit nonsense that no one wants to get rich slowly. If I want to get rich slowly now, I can become the richest man in the world by stocks? In the future, everyone wants to gradually become rich. Will everyone be rich? The main reason is that Buffett’s philosophy is easy to learn, and all kinds of mentality can be cultivated. They are all people. But the hard power behind other people’s operating methods don’t know if you can get it.

8 months ago

To tell a story, an investment teacher brought a group of students. An example of a loss: the teacher issued a buy order, part of which was bought, and part of it was not bought. The teacher issued a stop loss instruction, and some students stopped the loss according to the teacher’s stop loss; some students did not follow the teacher’s stop loss, and the loss was large; some students did not follow the teacher’s stop loss, and the capital was preserved; some students did not follow the teacher’s stop loss and earned Big. What would each person think of the people inside? An example of profit: the teacher issued a buy order, part of which was bought, and part of which was not bought. The teacher issued a stop profit instruction, and some students took profit according to the teacher’s stop profit; some students failed to take profit according to the teacher’s stop profit, and the loss was large; some students did not take profit according to the teacher’s stop profit, and the capital was preserved; some students did not take profit according to the teacher’s profit. Big. What would each person think of the people inside? The above example must exist in reality. Buffett tells you his investment, can you do the following? First, when he is in a loss, he can hold it, can you? Second, when he loses money, he can decisively confess his compensation, can you? Third, when he is making money, he can hold it, can you? Fourth, when he makes money, he can decisively stop profit, can you? Most people can’t do the most basic of the above. What’s more, some companies, tell everyone, are they eligible to invest? Are there any funds to invest? Dare to invest? In this world, you can only earn money within your cognition. How to expand your knowledge of the world is very important.

8 months ago

There is no way to replicate all trading systems. Because people essentially want to live what they want, not what others want, or like others, even if we worship a certain person, we only worship him as part of it. For example, there are many followers of Buffett’s value investment faction, but many believers only worship his profitability. They may not agree that he likes to do charity, or like to drink Coca-Cola and other aspects. This is a difference in nature. His efforts cannot be changed. Occupation is like a siege. People inside want to come in and people outside want to go out. Because of their deep passion, many people tend to observe other people’s careers from the perspective of their own hobbies. Why is speculative trading of stock futures so popular? No wonder there are two points: freedom of time and freedom of wealth. What do these two points mean? It means that you can live as you want. In fact, your trading system and style are doomed from the first day you enter the trading market, depending on your life characteristics. A lazy person comes in just like a gambler, and it is impossible to make a diligent review every day. A person with careful thinking is more inclined to discover the essence behind the phenomenon. Different people are destined to do different things, life is like this, and speculative trading is like this. In fact, if you really look at it from a trading perspective, you will also get rich. There are traders at that price, and at which price there are traders with disagreements. At which price, the greater the volume, the more traders who have disagreements many. For a certain trader, even the objective trading system is subjective at the beginning. Which trading indicator you choose, what trading cycle you choose, whether you choose the left or the right, these are all questions of subjective choice. Being subjective means different. Even if you really copy a set of other people’s objective trading systems, as long as you have control over this system, there will always be the possibility of subjective intervention. As for, when it comes to trading, let alone the actual situation. When others say that you are holding profit, you run away, and when others say that you stop loss, you say to take another take. Middle school as the body, western learning for use, only the prosperity that seems on the surface is cast. A similar question has actually been answered by Buffett himself. The reason why its trading philosophy cannot be replicated is that he has used his entire trading career to verify what he had discovered when he was young. Of course, there is one more thing he didn’t say, that decades of American national fortune is not something that every generation of imitators can encounter. Although everyone likes to take shortcuts, the shortcuts are often an absolute path. I think the most important thing is that when you want to live what you want through speculative trading in stocks or futures, you shouldn’t expect too many shadows of others in the process. Of course, this is not to say that traders should close themselves, but should start from self-thinking. As long as you can find your own problems in the transaction, even if it is solved with the help of others, it is yours.

8 months ago

In fact, it is really possible. When I was doing US stocks 10 years ago, Buffett had just bought bac, and they had to send out news, resulting in a huge volume of the day. I think the Americans are really cool, and there is such a weather vane that has to be shown publicly, can’t you make money by buying it with him? And our life must be longer than him, so let’s hold it for a long time. Today, 10 years later, the U.S. stock market is so bullish. Not only do you think of doing this, but many organizations will do the same. Otherwise, how could the amount be so large that day. Second, if you buy it, can you hold it for such a long time. The third is also the key to Wuhan. Do you have channels to invest? Don’t look at those garbage platforms on the Internet, 10 out of 10 are fake. The money doesn’t enter the market, you buy it equals to give money to the platform

8 months ago

Just buy his stocks directly. Buffett’s rate of return is calculated based on the rate of return of his stocks. Buying his stocks can replicate his rate of return, and buying with leverage can surpass Buffett. But the problem is that Buffett has not beaten the market index in the last 20 years, and he has tax incentives, you don’t have it.

8 months ago

This is a very good question. In fact, you don’t need to copy the stocks he bought because there is still a lag in doing so. Just buy Berkshire stock. But we know that Berkshire does not have many shareholders for two reasons. On the one hand, Berkshire is indeed expensive and most people can’t afford it; secondly, it still doesn’t trust Buffett. This distrust is manifested in several aspects: A. I feel unambiguous and look down on Buffett’s income; B. Buffett is close In the past 10 years, the income has been average, and many people worry that after buying Berkshire, it happens to coincide with Buffett’s late holiday. In recent years, Buffett’s very old voice has often been heard, and this voice has lasted for more than ten years.

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