The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, said that by the end of 2020, foreign investment has maintained a net inflow for three consecutive years, and foreign investors’ holdings of A-share assets exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The attractiveness of China’s capital market is strong, foreign capital has also received good returns, and the potential is still great. At present, there are also some interesting phenomena in the market. For example, some scholars and analysts pay more attention to external factors than domestic factors. They pay more attention to U.S. bond yields than LPR, Shibor and China Treasury bond yields, and pay more attention to overseas inflation expectations than domestic CPI. I will not comment on this phenomenon, but in light of the new development pattern, I suggest you do some thinking.

Recent regulatory actions are as follows: 1. The Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission strictly inspected the entry of operating loans into the housing market and the stock market; 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized that the registration system never meant relaxation of review requirements; 3. Popular funds suspended subscriptions; 4. Yi Gang stated that my country has Larger room for monetary policy control. Monetary policy has always been maintained within a normal range, with adequate tools and appropriate interest rates; 5. Yihuiman commented on the market: Many institutions paid too much attention to changes in overseas markets and neglected to pay attention to their own factors; as long as there is no excessive leverage, they will not pay event. It can be seen from the above that the regulatory attitude is clear, the market must be stabilized, and it is based on the healthy, long-term, and benign development of the market. In short, it is “stable.” As for the overseas market mentioned by Chairman Yi, it mainly refers to the yield of U.S. Treasuries. The original words are: “Some interesting phenomena have also appeared in the market. For example, some scholars and analysts pay more attention to external factors than domestic factors, and pay more attention to U.S. bond yields than LPR, Shibor and Chinese Treasury bond yields. Inflation expectations are more concerned with domestic CPI. I do not comment on this phenomenon, but in light of the new development pattern, I suggest you do some thinking.” From the historical data, China’s stock market is indeed affected little by changes in U.S. bond yields, more It is affected by domestic monetary policy and economic growth. However, the monetary policies of various countries now have a certain degree of mutual influence and mutual restraint, and there is a certain correlation between the overall volatility of A-shares and U.S. stocks. After the epidemic, the world’s currencies have loosened, and the global stock market and housing market have risen together. At present, all countries’ worries about inflation and interest rate hikes after inflation have surpassed the impact of the epidemic on the economy. At the US FOMC meeting on interest rates last Thursday, Powell’s signal was that although there are internal differences, interest rates will not be raised in the short term. Economic growth is still doubtful, employment is still unstable, and inflation rises are temporary. If interest rates are raised, it will be temporary. Communicate with the market in advance. Regarding my country’s domestic monetary policy, the President of the People’s Bank of China said on the 22nd: implement a prudent monetary policy; maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of the policy. In mid-January, the central bank scaled down and continued the MLF to tighten funding in order to respond to short-term asset price increases and increased leverage in the stock market, real estate market, and bond market. Subsequent MLF equalization operations have achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal of funds. The domestic market is currently at a relatively high level, but compared with the US economy, there are the following differences: 1. The domestic impact of the epidemic is relatively small, and the United States, etc. The difference between countries that have just stepped into recovery is that my country is already in the mid-stage of recovery from the epidemic, and there are a large number of high-quality assets in itself, and the upward pressure on my country’s national bond yields is relatively small; 2. Because the overall economic situation is better, the rise in commodities has brought about The impact of imported inflation is controllable and not enough to have an impact on my country’s monetary policy; for individuals, no leverage is the first and most important principle of investment. Secondly, the market turbulence has intensified recently, so don’t do it is the best strategy.


By zhiwo

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8 months ago

1. Let me talk about the source. This passage is from the “Keynote Speech of Yi Huiman at the Roundtable of China Development Forum” released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on March 20. This is a more authoritative speech. 2. Some scholars and analysts pay more attention to external factors than domestic factors. Yi Huiman’s main point in his speech is to pay too much attention to external factors such as “U.S. Treasury Yield”. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has always been Seen as an anchor for global risk asset pricing, A-shares have continued to fall recently. Everyone believes that the main reason is that U.S. bond yields continue to rise, and the market is worried about tightening liquidity. Now the domestic financial market is becoming more and more perfect, and the influence of the international market is becoming more and more obvious. When we analyze it, we must look at domestic and international factors. This is more comprehensive! 3. The recent A-share market risk, to what extent will the regulatory authorities take action? In Yi Huiman’s speech, he also mentioned the current decline in A shares, which I believe is more of concern to everyone. The conclusion is: “At present, the leverage risk in the A-share market is generally controllable.” Yi Huiman said. “The market volatility is very normal. I think that as long as there is no excessive leverage, there will be no major incidents. The key is to have a reasonable capital structure.” Therefore, the official believes that the current volatility of the A-share market is normal, that is, there is no excessive Leverage, in fact, mainly refers to the issue of over-the-counter funding.

8 months ago

It is normal to pay proper attention to external factors, because the economy is globalized, capital flows globally, and the world economy is tied together. For example, statistics show that the trend of international oil prices will affect the rise and fall of A shares, and it is generally a leading indicator that can be used to predict the rise and fall of A shares. So paying proper attention to the fluctuation of international oil prices can help you make investment decisions in the A-share market. For example, due to the existence of the ternary paradox, the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China will be affected by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. unemployment rate, non-agricultural employment data and other indicators will affect the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to pay proper attention to the US unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment data. However, the speech of the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, is not too problematic. Too much attention to external factors far exceeds domestic factors, which will cause analysts or some scholars to ignore some domestic statistical data indicators.

8 months ago

Speak for 180 million shareholders! Yi Huiman made a heavy speech that the registration system is by no means a relaxed review. He also rarely mentioned the “US Treasury Yield”. On March 20, approved by the State Council, it was sponsored by the Development Research Center of the State Council and undertaken by the China Development Research Foundation. The 2021 annual meeting of the forum will be held simultaneously online and offline at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, said when attending the annual meeting: the registration system does not mean relaxing the review requirements. Now that the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board are issued and listed, the exchanges must strictly perform their duties of review and check. The registration process of the China Securities Regulatory Commission checks and supervises the exchange’s audit quality and issuance conditions, and important aspects of information disclosure. Judging from the actual situation, these arrangements are effective and necessary. The market is more concerned about the IPO queue phenomenon. Some people think that since the registration system is implemented, the issuance should be completely liberalized, and the number of issuances should be increased. We believe that the queuing phenomenon is caused by multiple factors, which generally reflect the growing vitality of China’s real economy and the gradual increase in the attractiveness of the capital market. This is different from the “dammed lake” in history. In the past, IPOs were closed and opened, and the expectation was unclear, and some queues took two or three years. After the reform of the registration system, the registration review cycle has been greatly shortened, and it is close to a mature market. To realize the sustainable development of the capital market, it is necessary to fully consider the dynamic and positive balance of investment and financing. Only when the primary and secondary markets are kept orderly and stable, can a good IPO ecology be gradually formed. At present, we are following the ideas of optimizing services, strengthening supervision, removing rough and precise, and compacting responsibilities, and make full use of market-based legal methods to actively create a normalized IPO that meets market expectations. Yi Huiman also mentioned in his speech that by the end of 2020, foreign investment has maintained a net inflow for three consecutive years, and foreign investors’ holdings of A-share assets exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The attractiveness of China’s capital market is strong, foreign capital has also received good returns, and the potential is still great. At present, some interesting phenomena have also appeared in the market. For example, some scholars and analysts pay more attention to external factors than domestic factors. They pay more attention to U.S. bond yields than LPR, Shibor and China Treasury bond yields, and pay more attention to overseas inflation expectations than domestic CPI. I will not comment on this phenomenon, but in light of the new development pattern, I suggest you do some thinking.

8 months ago

Scholars and analysts will not trade stocks.
Comparing the stock market to the battlefield, scholars and analysts are at best military officers and staff members.
In the war, we pay attention to important factors such as logistics, military spirit, terrain, weather, and the strength of the two armies. The staff member tells you how strong the enemy is, not only affects the morale of the army, but is also incompetent. It should be dragged out and killed!

8 months ago

Obviously, the overtone of the village chief is that you young people blame Old Yuan for filling you up too much. In fact, I will tell you that every village chief has his own emotional intelligence and disposition. Put a village chief, this Quotes, scolded early. You can find that the current village chief rarely speaks in public, and rarely sets the tone. However, based on the fundamental purpose of “talking less and more importantly,” many comrades, your awareness has to be improved. Anyway, the village head. It has come out to “stabilize the military spirit.” The village chief said, “I don’t comment on this phenomenon, but I suggest that you think more about the new development pattern.” How do you understand this sentence? Friends with experience in the system can think about the meaning of this sentence. That is “I have been unhappy about this for a long time”. The village chief can hardly come to say a few words. For the topic that everyone is paying attention to, he set a tone. First, the purchase of funds by the villagers is in line with “the transfer of personal savings to equity assets”, which is a good thing, and the second is that there is no problem in the general direction. There must be leverage in the market now. The whole world is leveraging it. The U.S. money printing presses are unlimited. As long as the risk is controllable, then there is no problem. Now it is the key point. Keep an eye on it. Don’t make trouble. The moth is the third big thing. Well… Some comrades pay too much attention to the outside world. You are a little bit incorrect. Actually, the currency is not based on inflation and deflation, but inflation and deflation. This is a superficial view for everyone. Monetary policy depends on whether the government has money. If there is no money, inflation has to be released. The government has money to stabilize the society and people’s livelihood. Finally, the village chief’s weekend release is the current node. Hehe, you know, I finally don’t have to face A shares on Monday.

8 months ago

I see many research reports written by colleagues, including in-depth analysis reports, most of which are how the United States went to the abyss, and it is inevitable that it will continue to go to the abyss step by step, and how it will step into the next abyss after going to the abyss. I don’t understand what Chairman Yi’s intention is to turn his attention to China? Are there any problems in China? Concern about overseas inflation expectations exceeds that of domestic CPI overseas inflation. It’s not unreasonable for domestic institutions to pay attention to and warn about the suffering of the people’s livelihood and the difficulties of the people in the spirit of humanitarianism. But why pay attention to domestic CPI, and what is the reason? Please also make it clear from Chairman Yi. I can understand the ambiguity as deliberate smear.

8 months ago

Once the U.S. stock market bursts, the U.S. stock market will not burst. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in the second half of the year, maybe next year. The biggest bubble in the world is there. Former President Chuan Jianguo has 4 trillion US dollars. It hasn’t seen any effect when it hits it down. Let’s sit on the bench and watch the show. Earlier, American pension funds ran A-shares to invest. This news is actually quite big, and my pension fund doesn’t believe that my super bubble is now. This is a sign. Earlier, US stocks fell, European stocks fell, and A-shares rose to 3,000. Everyone felt that Europe and the United States were unreliable. This is also a place to pry into people’s hearts. The reason why Chuan Jianguo’s approval rating is so high is related to his desperate efforts to pull the stock index. During the outbreak, U.S. stocks experienced several fuse declines, and they were forced by Jianguo to release water. The old special is not good anymore. He was originally the actor who was sent to the front desk. He was too into the play and regarded himself as the protagonist, offending the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. The United States has reaped the world’s wool through: water release_capital outflow, interest rate hike or increase in U.S. bond yield_capital return_to complete the harvest, and the harvest is based on such a simple model. The United States is not reconciled. The yield on food and U.S. debt, which was urgently needed, increased to 1.5%. That night, the Biden administration bombed Syria. Biden is a good dog on Wall Street. He took 1.9 trillion yuan of banknotes and opened the film directly in Ukraine and Syria. It is also one of the links in the United States to harvest the world. This also means that all countries in the world are facing a looting. Biden has launched three wars, and it seems that the U.S. dollar still has not cut enough wool. Now the Sino-US game. The United States desperately prints money, so we are carbon neutral, reducing production capacity and raising prices. Carbon neutrality is much higher than that of the environmental protection investigations conducted in the previous two years. This is the original shit basin that the West has held on our heads. Today, while they were zooming in on the water, they backhanded back the shit bowl they made. They can’t have tempers yet, they have to say: It’s so fragrant! In fact, in addition to carbon neutrality and capacity reduction, we have been doing another thing. Don’t you print the US dollar? In Europe, don’t you print the euro. I won’t be flooded with you. If you print money, I will appreciate. Originally, one U.S. dollar can buy RMB 6 goods. Now that I appreciate, you can only buy 5 yuan. So it’s too fragrant to use carbon neutralization to increase the price of export commodities. Not only can Biden not be able to suck blood from China, he also has to deal with domestic inflation, which is far from simple. The credit base of the U.S. dollar was anchored to gold in the first place. Later, he shamed after printing more and became an anchor to oil. Later, oil couldn’t support the dollar, and it anchored Chinese-made goods. In order to join the world trade, we were willing to endorse the U.S. dollar at that time. The dollar is like Su Yuanyuan, the number one card in the story. The nobles in the capital raised funds to open an academy. The academy spent huge sums of money to speculate on the girls under the banner. The top name is Su Yuanyuan. The piano, chess, calligraphy and painting are excellent in color and art. The Wuling masters are all dumped and made a lot of fortune for the academy. . But recently, the girl Yuanyuan didn’t know what was wrong, she fell in love with a poor scholar, and often neglected the chic high-rollers who came to the academy. On this day, Li Gongzi in the capital was also the son of the academy’s shareholder Li Shangshu’s family. He wanted to come to the academy to prostitute Su Yuanyuan, but the girl Yuanyuan was busy talking about poetry and painting with poor scholars, and she was very interested. Single business pushed. But Young Master Li was not a waiter. The eyeliner in the academy quickly reported the truth to him. He knew that Girl Yuanyuan was paying for the poor scholars for free instead of coming to accompany her. Then Li Gongzi became furious, and led his family slave into Girl Yuanyuan’s boudoir, beat up the poor scholar, and then forcibly prostituted Su Yuanyuan. Let me explain here that the so-called academy can be compared to a global financial system centered on the dollar and Wall Street. The shareholders of the academy are the ruling group in the United States, and the popular girls launched by the academy are the dollar system. Through the dollar system, They can use a lower cost to form a profit. Generally speaking, the U.S. dollar is beneficial to the members of the ruling group because they can manipulate the process and details of the U.S. dollar in various ways, but sometimes these U.S. dollar systems can also hinder them—that is, they love the top cards and fall in love with them. Such things as poor scholars. When a similar incident occurred, the son of the shareholder Li Shangshu’s family violated the dollar system. Once this happened, the dignity of the dollar system was compromised—just like the top girl in the academy was humiliated. Before this happened, she was still above the goddess, but after this happened, she was worthless-and when the world began to despise the dollar system, then the dollar system was worthless. Now the United States is desperately “printing money”, just like the top girl in the academy has been humiliated. Before this happened, the U.S. dollar was still above the goddess, but after this happened, the U.S. dollar was worthless. The US dollar and Bitcoin are not irreplaceable. If the gold dollar roll is worthless, silver dollar rolls will be issued. If the bitcoin is not good, I will make a Dogo coin, gold wool coin, which can be invented and created at will. So it’s different now. I don’t endorse the U.S. dollar. I want to issue digital currency. Use the digital currency made in China as an endorsement. Therefore, the dual cycle should be based on the internal cycle. When the digital currency becomes the global currency in circulation, we will also become a major import country. It was said that China and the United States were husband and wife, but now they are truly divorced. This year our GDP target is set at 6%, so we can accept an inflation of 6%, but the United States cannot afford it. U.S. debt rises, the world’s big white horse jumps together. International capital has abandoned the European and American markets, and A-shares are a depression that can usher in global capital investment. This is a critical eye. This is also to watch the situation, it is precisely that playfulness is our housekeeping skill for thousands of years. Yi Huiman meant that A-share institutions should also enlarge the structure. Our country stated its position in the Sino-US high-level strategic dialogue. They all pointed out that “the United States is not qualified to speak condescendingly to China.” Now we can look at the world. Don’t move the US debt up a little bit, and the A shares will follow suit. Don’t always think about how the U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds are. Now we have the strength to do our own market.

8 months ago

Today, I went to the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and read Chairman Y’s keynote speech. I think there are still some highlights. Let’s just chat. I won’t follow the order of the chairman’s conversation to analyze it. I would like to say a few words about it. The leader mentioned in the fourth part of his keynote speech that it is necessary to “promote the opening up of the capital market system in an orderly manner.” Two points are mentioned in it, which I find quite interesting. 1. Prevent large capital inflows and outflows. Don’t be squeezed. I don’t know what the leader mentioned in his speech. We welcome the normal cross-border capital inflows and outflows. We can’t let the capital come and go freely, but for hot money. In and out, we have to monitor. In fact, I said too much about this in the early stage. It seems that the management also attaches great importance to this situation, so I can rest assured. Of course, there is a fact that everyone must admit. In terms of investment, the level of foreign investment is much stronger than that of domestic leeks. Every year they make money from our country. As for domestic capital, they are leeks at home, but they become coriander when they go abroad. I don’t believe it! Also, if the hot money wants to run away, we really can’t stop it. What we can do now is to strengthen supervision. 2. There have been some “interesting” phenomena in the market recently, everyone should pay attention to it. Chairman Yi also almost jokingly talked about some phenomena in the market. He said that some scholars and analysts pay more attention to external factors than domestic factors. They mentioned the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds, which is simply exaggerated, but they seldom care about domestic economic indicators such as LPR and shibor, and they pay more attention to overseas inflation than domestic CPI. Seeing this, I chuckled. Is Chairman Yi criticizing me? Hehe, just kidding, what kind of green onion is my old Li, the big leader doesn’t care what I, an intellectual, is talking about? I have indeed talked too much about the US 10 debt recently, but I have rarely talked about domestic economic indicators. I accept criticism and make corrections later. However, Lao Li talked about U.S. Treasury yields mainly because everyone was not very familiar with U.S. Treasuries, and he was even confused about whom U.S. Treasury yields are related to. When I talked about the relationship between U.S. Treasury and inflation expectations and the actual rate of return (TIPS), some netizens even don’t even know what TIPS means. They don’t even know that inflation expectations are the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates. . If everyone does not understand these economic indicators, it is not clear that the recent rise in the US 10 debt is due to the increase in real yields, that is, the expectation of economic recovery, which is less affected by inflation expectations. Forget it, let’s not talk about it. Besides, the leaders have to criticize. Regarding the domestic CPI, everyone should know the reason why I am not mentioning it. Because it is too distorted to reflect the real domestic inflation rate, I have very little to talk about. 3. The reform of the registration system should continue, but the requirements will be higher. Regarding the reform of the registration system, I think the leadership’s words are quite harsh. In the later stage, this hole may be further tightened. It is estimated that the scale of listed companies this year may decrease, and great efforts will be made to the quality of listed companies. In the early stage, we were very dissatisfied with the stock market, a morbid market that just couldn’t help but eat. However, let’s be honest, if we pursue the US, where 80% of the stocks in history will be delisted, it seems unrealistic. Then we can only work harder on the import and export, and then think of a solution in the future. 4. The proportion of investors buying funds is increasing. This is a good thing, but don’t go to extremes. For investors buying funds, the leaders are quite satisfied and think this is a good trend change. Of course, the leaders also pointed out that the asset management industry must catch up with the new trend of wealth management, narrow the gap between supply and demand, and avoid repeated detours. My understanding of this sentence is like this. I think the leaders are not satisfied with the fund grouping. They hope that the funds can be dispersed and more technically invested, rather than a brain stud with some good votes that everyone knows. , This can not be called value investment, it is still speculation in nature. In short, leaders still attach great importance to the healthy development of China’s capital market, and want to make this market more stable and more durable.

8 months ago

No way, A shares are notoriously following the decline. Do you not look at the outside and look at the inside? . . . As long as A-shares can get out of the independent rising market, who will look at the external environment? Don’t talk about some analysts, I’ll leave it here, as long as you are playing A-shares, you have to look at the external environment. . . Quite simply, every time A-shares fall, an excuse can be found, and most of the excuses are external factors.

8 months ago

Effectively hold the bottom line of risk. Stability is an important prerequisite for the reform and development of the capital market. In the current situation of external uncertainties and increasing unstable factors, we must effectively strengthen bottom-line thinking, enhance awareness of danger, focus on preventing input and cross-cutting risks, improve response plans in various scenarios, and strive to achieve stable and healthy development of the capital market . At the same time, continue to do a good job in the prevention and disposal of risks in key areas. Regarding the risk of stock pledge, strengthen supervision and coordination, promote the interconnection of information on and off the market, and mutual consultation on prevention and control measures, and strive to have a new improvement in the overall effect. Regarding the risk of bond defaults, we will improve the market-based and legalized default resolution mechanism, take multiple measures at the same time, and achieve a smooth transition. Regarding the risks of private equity funds, we will accelerate the establishment of a risk prevention and disposal mechanism for inter-ministerial linkage and central-local collaboration, actively explore effective measures to address both symptoms and root causes, and effectively solve prominent problems such as “pseudo private equity”, “type private equity”, and “chaotic private equity.

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