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This is evidence that the United States has taken advantage of the dollar’s world currency status to reap other countries. The Federal Reserve continues to issue more currency. Within a year of last year, the Fed’s balance sheet rose from 4.2 trillion to 7.4 trillion, an increase of 76%. This year, Biden has produced 1.9 trillion when it comes up, and plans to launch 30,000 in the future. Billion economic stimulus plan. Such a large-scale printing of money has caused global commodity and food prices to rise sharply across the board. Whether it is US stocks, crude oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, agricultural products, and food prices, the increase has almost doubled. For countries that rely heavily on imports, the price of bulk commodities has more than doubled, which is equivalent to the depreciation of the US dollar by half. The foreign exchange reserves of these countries were not large. Now that commodities have more than doubled, the foreign exchange reserves will not be enough, and the prices of domestic commodities will also skyrocket. The external price has doubled, and the domestic price may rise several times, or even more, because they have no foreign exchange reserves available. This will lead to hyperinflation, so we must passively raise interest rates to curb inflation. During this period, all countries put the protection of the economy first, and it is impossible to raise interest rates without a last resort. This is the inevitable result of over-issuance of the US dollar and diluting the value of foreign exchange reserves in other countries. It is also the normal operation of the United States to harvest the world and let the world pay for it together. The United States can alleviate the economic pressure by constantly over-issuing currency, but for other countries it is a double blow. On the one hand, it has to deal with the pressure of the domestic economic downturn, and on the other hand, it also needs to deal with imported inflation from the US over-issued currency. pressure. At present, China is also facing the pressure of domestic economic recovery and imported inflation, but China’s developed manufacturing industry can also offset some of the pressure through the domestic market and foreign trade. Even so, since the second half of last year, everyone can clearly feel the cost pressure caused by rising raw materials, but the demand side has not improved significantly. This year, the domestic business environment is really difficult. The current global economy is not simply big inflation, in fact it is stagflation. Stagflation is the phenomenon that commodity prices continue to rise, accompanied by the economic downturn, the unemployment rate is soaring, and wage income is not rising at all, and it is even continuing to decline.


By zhiwo

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8 months ago

Tell everyone a cold knowledge that is not cold knowledge. There is a surplus of global food every year. As long as the United States and other countries are willing, the food produced in a single country in the United States will be sufficient for the global population to consume. In the past decade or so, China has had a surplus of grain every year, and it is imported every year because imported grain is cheap. The rise in international food prices is not because there is not enough food in the world, but because countries, especially the United States, print too much money. Printing so much money and thinking about whether the price of food will rise? Isn’t this bullshit… Addition Since 2015, grain production has consistently exceeded the demand scale, leading to a continuous increase in global grain stocks. At present, the cumulative global grain stocks are as high as 817 million tons, a record high in more than 20 years. Looking at the specific food varieties, barley, wheat, corn and rice, the annual output of all major food crops has always been greater than the total consumption, and the food supply is fully surplus. The surplus is wheat, reaching 62%, and the surplus is barley, which is close to 30%. This means that even if the world no longer produces food, it will still last for five or six months. In 2019, my country’s rice output was 209.6 million tons, but our consumption was only 194 million tons. If we include feed and industrial grains, we will have a balance of 14.3 million tons. From 2006 to 2019, the average self-sufficiency rate of wheat in my country was 105.88%; in fact, the same is true for rice, and the self-sufficiency rate after 2014 was above 100%. In 2019, the country’s three major staple food inventories of wheat, corn, and rice have a balance of more than 280 million tons, which means that the inventory can meet consumer demand for more than one year.

8 months ago

Central banks around the world smiled at each other, ethics? No more. There is nothing that the money printing machine cannot solve. Is one trillion enough? If it is not enough, then print another trillion. It’s a pity that not all countries are the United States. The United States is a big hooligan and can collect protection fees. Other countries will come out and have to pay their debts sooner or later. Before that, it was the Latin American financial crisis in the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s. Of course, the United States itself also had the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. When the old hairdresser was ruthless, he even chopped it. In response to the epidemic crisis this time, the United States ran the money printing machine frantically, betting that it can secure economic recovery and full employment before inflation soars, so that the economy and the stock market can withstand the impact of interest rate hikes. The most embarrassing operation in the United States was that the core inflation rate was changed last year, which allowed the inflation rate to be higher than 2% for a period of time. In the past, facing the impossible triangle of “controlling inflation, promoting economic recovery, and maintaining the rise of US stocks”, the Fed could only say shyly: Oh no, concubines can’t do it. Now the Fed smiled strangely, changed the “core inflation rate of 2%” abruptly, and then cast a wink: Oh Yes, it’s so cool. Why do you make other countries feel bad? Currency actually represents the fundamentals of the country. When the health is good, the fundamentals are strong, and the currency is strong; when the health is weak, the fundamentals are weak, and the currency is declining. When the currency falls, it indicates that there is a problem with the fundamentals. Then there will be two kinds of trends. Capital must escape from danger. The central bank must raise interest rates in order to recover. But the increase in interest rates will reduce liquidity and make the economy worse. The final result It is the currency that continues to lower its limit. This is how Turkey is going now. A fall in the currency leads to a comparative advantage. You sell cheaper things, increase your export advantage, the economy stabilizes, and finally the currency stops falling and recovers. For a country like Russia that relies on resource exports, the first method is already familiar. Because you sell resources in exchange for things made by others, the pressure of currency devaluation is all on you. The more you buy, the more expensive things you buy. In the end, inflation is imported. We did the second method before, and finally the economy landed smoothly. This applies to manufacturing countries. The operation of printing money is actually used to buy time. The time bought can be used to delay the economic downturn. It can be delayed again and again, and it may be delayed until the next technological cycle, and then it can be danced vigorously. It’s just that someone has to fall down first, you see, Turkey, Brazil, and Russia have already started to foam at their mouths.

8 months ago

The locust plague that swept across North Africa to South Asia in 2019 has already heralded an increase in international food prices in 2020. At that time, Chinese netizens were still discussing how to export ducks for free fattening and then transport them back to eat better. The 2020 new crown epidemic is destined to have an impact on the upstream chemical fertilizer production and labor mobility. A further decline in global food production in 2020 is a foregone conclusion. While China is producing masks at home and frantically, industrial production has basically recovered more than 80% of the previous year in April, and food production has not been affected or even increased slightly. The previous wave of locust plagues was divided into two groups. In 2020, one wave will continue to engage in East Africa and the other wave will continue to engage in South Asia. Then, Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly spurred the price of crude oil and created a historic 4-stroke circuit breaker in US stocks. Trump pressured the Fed to start “unlimited quantitative easing” to rescue the market. Many European countries followed up with water releases. Potatoes, vegetables and food in Southeast Asia were experiencing supply problems. , Many grain exporting countries have further restricted grain exports… India, a major international grain exporting country, unexpectedly began to cancel the policy of purchasing grain at a protective price in 2021, and farmers are still blocking roads in the capital. …Whether it is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations or the bloodthirsty international hot money, they have foreseen this wave of rising food prices early. Anyone who follows a bit of international news knows that global inflation is coming. In order to strictly guard against the property market bubble, China has introduced an “unbelievable” level of property market loan review policy, which not only restricts personal mortgages but also restricts developers’ revolving loans; large A-shares can actually go down despite China’s outstanding economic data; funds As soon as the company began to take the entertainment route to absorb funds, it was approved by the regulators. Obviously, my country has used the attributes of infrastructure madness to build a financial breakwater to avoid the situation of taking over for the United States in 2008. The price of Feitian pork, which was chewed up by some people, also dropped after the Spring Festival as in previous years, so that no one mentions it now. But Turkey can no longer hold it. In the early morning of the 22nd, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar plummeted, with a drop of 15% at one time. Turkey’s prices have soared, and its currency has plummeted. Turkish people have complained about this. The Turkish economy itself is fragile. After the US currency is released, Turkey has become the country with the most inflation. Turkey is likely to become a country that causes an economic crisis due to the US currency release. Secondly, according to data released by the Turkish Statistics Agency, in January this year, Turkish food prices rose by 18% year-on-year. This is the result of the United States passing on the risks to the world by printing money and plundering the wealth of countries in the world. Turkey may be the first country to fall in this round of currency floods. This wave of water release in the United States will definitely require large economies to take over. After Turkey, South America, and South Asia are not sufficiently funded, it is estimated that they will not be able to take it. Europe, Japan and South Korea will not be able to escape the cut-and-snap savior.

8 months ago

The groups on Zhihu should be very young, and there are some facts that are difficult to become hotspots. For example, in recent months, steel, copper, plastic, aluminum, glass and other raw materials closely related to manufacturing have all skyrocketed. There are also shortages of some raw materials, which leads to huge pressure on manufacturing costs, has a huge impact on economic operations, and is bound to cause downstream price hikes. But on Zhihu, I hardly see any relevant discussions. Everyone here is more concerned about IT and finance, and finally there is some news of physical inflation, which can only be felt by ordinary people who know the price of grain, pork, and oil. Inflation is actually something that is happening in all aspects at the moment, and it is not news at all.

8 months ago

Inflation or deflation is too early to say. The most direct impact of the new crown epidemic is the decline in international productivity. It was originally able to produce one unit of crude oil, one unit of barley, and one unit of mobile phones. There may be only half a unit now. Under such circumstances, the United States attempts to free up more dollars to purchase goods that are in short supply, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of goods. Under such circumstances, China, as a major producer, will occupy a better position. The world was originally a buyer’s market, and there was an oversupply. But now it is gradually becoming in short supply. Of course, international trade is a bit more complicated, so we won’t say more

8 months ago

Laomei’s system is easy to enter the game and difficult to come out. Fortunately, our biggest basic market is the land allocated to farmers. As long as this basic market is in place, domestic food prices will be stable. As long as the food is stable, there is a lot of confidence to implement an independent monetary policy without being led by the nose of the United States. The current international situation is that all the big guys are struggling, and whoever can’t help but fall, there will be a group of hungry wolves rushing to share and eat.

8 months ago

To quote the former US Treasury Secretary, this is the most irresponsible economic policy he has ever seen in the past 40 years. The global release of water has triggered soaring prices of commodities and agricultural products priced in U.S. dollars. For countries with weak national power, the United States can only passively keep up with the release of water, otherwise it will not be able to withstand imported inflation at all. Speaking of the Great Inflation, in fact it has always existed after the disaster. Speaking of people, what is the operating process? First, the U.S. began to loosen up water. The long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds soared to more than 1.7%. The problem is that there is almost no interest on U.S. deposits. The rise in U.S. bond interest rates has triggered a large amount of capital into the United States. For some emerging economies, such as Southeast Asia, money flows out of these places, which is a negative for equity assets (such as stocks) in these places. This is also one of the reasons for the recent decline in the stock market.

8 months ago

Agriculture is the foundation of the prosperity of all nations, and what the old folks said is really good. Compared with food, clothing, housing and transportation, some Internet entrepreneurial games like the ones that are played now are really tricks and tricks. Although our country has a vast territory, we don’t have much land suitable for food production. And because of the inherent stereotypes, many people’s obsession with the wild is better than industrial farming. This preference has caused the development of modern agriculture to be often stigmatized in the media. Vaccines for economic animals are used as growth hormones, and pesticides used to protect crops from pests and diseases are used as preservatives. Even the news of adding red potion in watermelon dare to concoct. While opposing modern agriculture on the one hand, it vigorously advocates wild varieties, such as all kinds of game, even wild milk, and wild rice cookers are all made to fool people. In terms of concrete implementation, due to land problems, it is impossible to thoroughly carry out modernized agricultural transformation. Agriculture has long been regarded by the public as a low-end industry, and only those who have no culture should do it. This kind of thinking once led to the fact that there is no essential difference between the production methods in many places and thousands of years ago. The output may have risen due to the use of chemical fertilizers, but this production method has caused a lot of waste. And our media t did not play a positive role in promoting food security, but keen to promote money worship, or stimulate the confrontation between men and women. What’s more, some people made up Jiang Kun-style news to scare everyone. Anyway, I didn’t do any business, and I was completely messed up. As for the skyrocketing food prices, the fourth-tier small cities have not yet seen it. Two pieces of tomatoes and cucumbers, less than four pieces of eggs, and 21 pieces of pork. The price has indeed risen since the same period two or three years ago, but it is a bit alarmist to say that it is soaring. And saving food is a fine tradition left by our ancestors. No matter whether there is a shortage of food or not, we should not want to waste it. We improve our lives and focus on diversified diets and healthy meals, but it is really too much to waste food in order to show our individuality.

8 months ago

Divide this question into several paragraphs: sorghum has soared 82.1%, food prices have soared frequently, and the central banks of the three countries have been forced to raise interest rates. Does it indicate the arrival of great inflation… It’s okay to make news headlines. If you want to sort out it carefully, as a point of view, it is a bit untenable. Sorghum has risen sharply. Sorghum here refers to the international price of sorghum. In the field of international bulk commodities, sorghum is a small commodity, and the elasticity of supply and demand is small. , The price fluctuations will be large, and it cannot be used as a general measure of food prices. Food prices have skyrocketed frequently. The so-called food prices here, I guess they should refer to corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. In recent months, international prices have indeed The increase is not small. But it is mainly because of the contradiction between the normal demand rebound after the epidemic is under control/expected economic recovery and the supply chain that has not fully recovered. Is there any liquidity stimulus? Yes, but the correlation is not yet Big. The central banks of the three countries were forced to raise interest rates. This refers to: Brazil, Russia, Turkey. Turkey is mainly in its own way. In the past two years, three or four central bank governors have been replaced. The central bank governor who came to power the day before yesterday was actually The columnists of the party newspaper…their interest rates have increased to nearly 20% in the past two years. They have been raising interest rates. The situation in Brazil is also very bad. It is clear from the number of confirmed cases/deaths from the new crown epidemic, which is almost one of the best in the world. Capital. Natural large-scale outflows and capital outflows have stimulated the devaluation of the national currency. This year, the Brazilian real has depreciated by more than 40%. Naturally, the price of animals has skyrocketed and it cannot be suppressed without raising interest rates. Under current circumstances, some countries may experience a small-scale financial crisis. There will also be some expectations of higher inflation. But at least in China, there will be no big inflation.

8 months ago

It’s already here. The 95 oil has been added for 7 yuan last week, and it was only 6 yuan at the beginning of last year. Energy is the cornerstone of all prices. A 25% increase is really a bit scary. Coupled with the decline in social purchasing power, the depreciation of the dollar has actually exceeded 25%. I remember that the last time the gasoline reached 8 yuan was in 2008, I briefly crossed the line, and I don’t remember how many it was, and then it started a terrible avalanche. I don’t know what will happen. We are not studying finance. Can the United States stabilize this? Can Hu Yin be okay? Well, fantasy.

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