Biden pointed out that economic forecasters have raised the US GDP growth forecast to more than 6%, which is proof that the rescue plan has worked and the fight against the epidemic has made progress. “We are beginning to see new signs of hope in the economy,” he said. “Hope is here.”

Earlier this month, the US Congress passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan to help the economy recover. Currently, Biden and his economic team are drafting a new US$3 trillion long-term investment plan, focusing on infrastructure, education, and nursing. Part of the funding will come from tax increases.

“I want to change the existing paradigm, not only wealth can be rewarded, but work can also be rewarded,” Biden said at a press conference. (Interface News)

This is the same as saying that India has grown by 9.2% this year. It belongs to people who are confident, and you really can’t say anything. . . To make it clear, subjectively I believe in the theory of the collapse of the dollar, that is, the dollar will completely lose its credibility and lose its value in international circulation during this economic crisis or the next economic crisis within 20 years. Therefore, my judgment will tend to describe the bad side of the US economy, and readers are invited to adjust their perceptions as appropriate. In early March, the OECD raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.2% to 6.5% because of Biden’s 1.9 trillion stimulus package. Now that Biden is going to come to 2 trillion (at least), does it mean that the United States will hit double-digit growth in 2021? This. . . Dare to love the epidemic killed 550,000 people, the economy has not shrunk, but has expanded rapidly. Yes, very energetic. On the other hand, the labor participation rate in the United States dropped from 63.4% in the first quarter of 2020 to 61.4%. At present (the first quarter of 2021) there are still 9.7 million unemployed, of which long-term unemployment (more than half a year) accounts for 43.4%. This means that more than 4 million people in the United States are structurally unemployed. The proportion of long-term unemployed in the United States to total unemployed. Moreover, as expected, the most unemployed in the low-end service industry is also the most difficult to recover. From March 2020 to March 2021, the number of employees in various industries in the United States has changed, but the construction industry has basically recovered. Biden urged infrastructure construction to send his former cashier girl and housekeeping aunt to the construction site? Oh, yes, most of the money printed before went to the stock market. The total market value of the US stock market has grown from 159% times GDP before the epidemic to 194% times GDP. Calculated at 22 trillion U.S. dollars, that is to say, since the epidemic, the total price of US stocks has increased by 7.8 trillion U.S. dollars. Gee. If you have the ability to stimulate the economy, the capital market has the ability to eat it all. As we all know, money in the capital market is not considered GDP. Well, if Biden’s economic growth plan is only economic stimulus and infrastructure, it is basically difficult to achieve a nominal 3% growth, which means that it is basically impossible to achieve it in 2021 before the epidemic is restored. According to past data, such a large-scale structural unemployment will last for at least four years. Therefore, it is difficult for the United States to achieve growth of more than 3% in 2021. Even because of the huge ability of the capital market to absorb money, the Fed cannot even print CPI. Anticipation of deflation and depression should be the consensus of American elites. Anyway, I think that if the stock market does not fall back, or employment is not solved first, to find new growth points, raising interest rates is tantamount to a deflationary future. The United States boasts that it is the most developed country in the world, and new growth points are really not available. This wave should depend on who is behind the economic collapse. The Fed raises interest rates, economic growth cannot keep up, deflation, that is the Fed/Biden’s pot; the Fed does not raise interest rates, the stock market bubble is too large, Wall Street began to sell on a large scale, the bubble bursts, the economy is depressed, that is Wall Street’s pot. The last time Wall Street did something wrong, it greatly affected the image and overseas credit. It is estimated that a lot of money is not easy to make. Also, in the past, capital + media was equal to votes. Trump came to power and populism was rampant. The previous set would not work. If Biden carries the pot that caused the depression, the mainstream media will not be able to wash it again. The Democratic Party estimates that it will be a while. I can’t hold my head up, so I think this wave of American elites understands that the American economy is too hard to return to the gods and it is difficult to save. It is just a matter of how the pot is divided. Therefore, a wave of people clamored to ask the Fed to raise interest rates, and a wave of people said they were determined not to increase it. What’s more interesting is the question of whether to put this pot on China’s head. Not bad, I don’t want to take the pot internally. I want to rely on it, China and the United States have decoupled, and the economy has exploded in place. It is actually difficult for proud Americans to completely believe that their economy has been blown up because of a struggle with a third world country. The elite will not believe it, after all, the logic of this statement itself is not strong enough. Therefore, there is such nonsense as “cooperating in the field of cooperation and fighting in the field of struggle”. Counseling can’t work. Teacher Jin Canrong is right. The United States has lost its confidence and calmness as the world’s hegemon, neither can it be joking, nor does it have a domineering attitude that cannot be offended. Economic growth of 6% in 2021? Just increase laughter. A child asked me, even if the accumulation is hard to come back, the US economy is just waiting for a breakthrough, why must it shrink? This question is very interesting! Make a supplement here. The U.S. economy is different from other countries. The U.S. dollar is the most important international currency and needs to provide currency support for the international trade market. Other countries can’t find growth points, just wait for a breakthrough in sideways shocks, such as Europe. The U.S. needs to continue to export U.S. dollars to maintain the U.S. dollar exchange rate. International trade volume must continue to rise and increase faster and faster. U.S. dollar exports must also continue to rise and climb faster. Otherwise, the supply of U.S. dollars will continue to rise, and the United States itself The export of goods will lose competitiveness. The export dollar is based on imported goods. If the economy stays in place and imports continue to increase, it actually means that the domestic market is constantly being eaten up and related industries in the country are shrinking. Therefore, the economic development of the United States must be equal to or higher than the international average. However, as an advanced economy, the United States is destined to not grow as fast as emerging economies. When emerging economies are lifted out of poverty, their huge population base will make their total amount large enough to affect the balance of supply and demand for the dollar. As a result, if the United States stops technological breakthroughs and stops development, either the dollar will continue to appreciate or all US industries will continue to shrink. This is why I firmly oppose the internationalization of the RMB. If the renminbi replaces the U.S. dollar, the mentality of our people may also undergo terrible changes, and they may deliberately depress global economic development at certain special moments. Some small partners pointed out that the export of US dollars is not entirely dependent on commodity imports, and there are other multiple means. This is not wrong, I simplified it. And I’m not very familiar with this aspect. If there is something wrong with the following, please point it out. U.S. dollar exports do include overseas investment and cross-border bank expansion. The stock of US direct investment abroad is about 7.7 trillion (the largest in the world), but the output in 2019 is about 160 billion, and the import is about 330 billion. The net flow is to the United States. I dare not talk about the return of the manufacturing industry, but the US dollar has indeed returned, so that the US dollar index has remained at a high point before the epidemic. On the other hand, at the end of 2020 in the United States, as a result of the international investment position (IIP), within one year, the United States’ international debt increased by about 6 trillion and its international assets increased by about 3 trillion. On a net basis, it is still the United States that has borrowed another $3 trillion from the international market to return to the United States. Despite the Fed’s unlimited qe, there is still a shortage of domestic dollar liquidity in the United States, and liquidity needs to be squeezed from the international market. It can be said that at present, the United States has basically been relying on the cross-border investment balance to return the U.S. dollar to ensure the international circulation of the U.S. dollar, so as to achieve the purpose of sucking blood. It is very rare to rely on investment to export U.S. dollar liquidity. As for the expansion of cross-border bank balances (such as foreign exchange swaps and currency swaps), generally speaking, it is more troublesome and often involves politics, and generally one party will lose money at maturity. In this epidemic, in terms of currency swaps, under the coordination of the Federal Reserve, in the first quarter of 2020, Japanese and European banks only withdrew a total of 358 billion U.S. dollars, and then vomited about 60% back in the second quarter. As for foreign exchange swaps, I really don’t know this, so skip it. In terms of international trade, the United States has a deficit of more than 800 billion a year, imports 2.5 trillion yuan, and exports 1.6 trillion yuan. This force should dominate the international dollar supply. To be unprofessional, this 800 billion is roughly equivalent to the attributes of M0 or M1. In general, the dollar’s ​​cycle is basically based on exporting dollars through trade, and recovering dollars through cross-border investment balances and the sale of financial derivatives.


By zhiwo

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6 months ago

It is said that growth is okay, even if you set 100%, the question is where is the growth point? Where is the strong growth of China’s growth over the years? Just say that during the epidemic last year, China was also damaged in the first few months, but production was resumed later. Because of the raging foreign epidemic, the demand for exports continued to grow. So last year’s export growth was not low. Data show that in 2020, China’s exports will be 17.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 4%; imports will be 14.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%; the trade surplus will be 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.4%. Last year, when China was left unused for two or three months, the industrial added value increased by 2.8% over the previous year, followed by this is the point where China can grow. In the consumer market, China continued to issue consumer vouchers last year to stimulate consumption. Although some domestic demand was saved, it continued to recover later. However, the total retail sales of consumer goods last year was 391981 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous year, so consumption cannot be rescued at once. In other words, China’s growth can be seen at every point, so we set a 6% this year, and China can see the growth points in the following places. China’s exports and industrial growth this year will be even higher, and this year’s service industry and social consumption will return to pre-epidemic levels because the domestic epidemic has stabilized. So, you tell me the U.S. What do you rely on for growth? You say that you can rely on you to send those trillions of dollars to revitalize the infrastructure, three trillion dollars in 15 years, more than two hundred billion dollars a year, what can you do? Approval was delayed, and various unknown companies were eaten up in the middle. The budget was not enough and a little more money was gone. As for the so-called fiscal stimulus plan, how much money would flow into the company’s accounts and the stock market. ? With tens of thousands of new additions every day in the United States, what do you rely on to restore the service industry and social consumption? Even if the money is paid out, how many people are unemployed or in trouble due to the epidemic. Can you dare to say that by paying money, they can return to their pre-epidemic living standards? Can the US, which accounts for a high proportion of GDP in the service industry, be restored to its pre-epidemic state this year? As for the American industry, what they export are large-scale electronic computers, airplanes and parts and other aviation products, nuclear industrial equipment and technology, machinery and transportation equipment, and chemicals. Do you mean, because of the epidemic, everyone wants to fly? Or do the Americans think that everyone is on the plane and their feet are off the ground, and the disease of the epidemic will not be able to occupy the high ground? To be honest, the bragging is too big. The only thing that can realize his ambition is to print several trillion dollars to drive the stock market, right? What’s more, you haven’t printed less in these years, and you can’t print a growth rate of 6%. Can you do this this year? To be pragmatic, I think it will be enough if there is a 6% growth rate in four years. Let’s figure out the tactics of the epidemic first. Chuanbao’s people have done a good job. Why do you replace others? Tell me? In the end, I think it’s good to print money. Print it a few more times. If you print it a few more times, no one will use U.S. dollars.

6 months ago

Is there no supply in the world? No, it is a lack of demand. In the years before the epidemic, the European, American and Japanese central banks have been worrying about the fact that CPI has always failed to meet expectations. The water is exhaling, but the CPI just can’t come up. This also explains why the Fed does not seem to be particularly worried about inflation this time. If the economic stimulus policy cannot finally be transmitted to the needs of the whole society, it will become more embarrassing. Japan is a lesson for all developed and major countries. From a practical perspective, the biggest challenge for the United States is how to pull up demand. This involves distribution. Thousands of billions of money invested in infrastructure are thrown down to create job opportunities. If the distribution is not done properly, workers can still only get subsistence wages, or they will continue to be taken away by illegal immigrants. Without spare money to consume, demand still cannot rise. To create demand, if the performance of large companies and related households is only improved at the end, it will eventually become an embarrassing state of leaving when the oil is supplied and stopping when the oil is collected. This is not to worry about it. After a long period of qe, the CPI still didn’t move. On the contrary, listed companies used repurchase to pull the stock market up. Everyone has seen it. Distribution is not as simple as fiscal policy. In an environment where interest games like the United States are very fierce, it is very difficult to achieve it. For example, Biden’s new tax policy may be more difficult to implement than to spread money. Biden has a very crucial sentence this time, “It is not only wealth that can be rewarded, but work can also be rewarded.” Shouting slogans is simple, watching the stock market soar, how do Americans believe?

6 months ago

The first student in the elementary school class was so dragged that he didn’t look at the results at all after the exam. Why? Because the strength crushes everyone, the door is full of points, there is no need to look at it. When he first entered junior high school, that classmate was still the first, but every time he had to secretly check the second place results, why? Because people’s grades are coming up, I can’t say one day I will surpass myself. In the second year of junior high school, the classmate sometimes had a few exams that were not as good as the second place, so he started to stare at the second place, wanting to see how others study, why did he improve so fast? In the third year of junior high school, the gap between that classmate and the second place was getting smaller and smaller, so every time he was worried about being overtaken by others. The psychological pressure was too great, so I started to cheat in private, saying that the second place cheated and missed the exam, and also attracted a group of friends, not letting everyone interact with the second place, and not giving the second place a topic… but no The way, people’s achievements are still approaching, what should I do? He felt that other classmates’ eyes had changed when they saw him. They weren’t the same admiration they had before. Their eyes were full of suspicion, and they showed contempt and disdain from time to time. Parents put more pressure on him, and his eyes always show disappointment and frustration. But he has worked very hard? Forming cliques, inciting slander, and fighting against the blockade. They do everything they can. If you use all the tricks you can use, you just go straight to the fight. But fights can’t be beaten, and in the end it is nothing more than losing. What else can we do now? In desperation, he had to make an expedient first, so he shouted: I must be the first in the next exam! Keep shouting, shouting loudly, until you believe it.

6 months ago

Normal means certainly cannot achieve a 6% growth rate. Bloomberg recently raised its forecast for the United States, and its judgment for this year is an increase of 5.5%, which is higher than the previous forecast of 3.7%, but it still falls short of the 6% target. Even if the US consumption level is higher than expected, the social unemployment rate is declining, and the vaccine is quickly and widely injected. It is still unable to reach 6% under normal circumstances. The United States can only achieve its goals by printing money/issuing bonds. What does the 6% annual economic growth rate mean to the United States? This is the highest growth rate in the United States since 1984, and the United States today has long lost its economic vitality. How much economic growth Biden’s $3 trillion infrastructure plan can drive… is very doubtful. The United States has long passed the era of large-scale infrastructure construction, and diminishing marginal effects are a real obstacle, and investing money may not be able to get more returns. The more mature the economy, the lower the economic benefits that such a large amount of money will be used to increase production capacity, and the United States is no exception. Although the United States is growing at this rate, it is enough to take the world off. Excessive printing of money cannot be converted into economic growth, but can only become inflation, so there is a limit to relying on QE to pull. Under the current circumstances, the trade conflict between the United States and the European Union has not stopped, and it will obviously slow down economic growth. After all, the optimal allocation of capital can only be achieved in a free environment. President Biden stated that he would revitalize the US manufacturing industry and has allocated a large amount of funds to implement the “Buy America” ​​plan. But if you want to increase the economic growth rate of the entire country, how much do you have to buy? I think at least 400 billion will be invested a year. Obviously, it is still forcing allies to buy more cost-effective. The monopoly effect of various giants in the United States has hindered technological innovation and the survival of new enterprises. Even if it rushes to 6% by various means, the growth rate next year will be ugly. The current regime will last for four years, not just this one year. It is nothing more than empty promises. After the Corona pandemic, all countries have prioritized their own countries. Everyone has to eat at home. Can they be dumped by the United States?

6 months ago

Everyone was very happy and very happy. It was a good holiday. I saw everyone saying that the US dollar was about to collapse in the next economic crisis, and the mess in the United States was incurable. I certainly agree with the big guys. But as individuals, what can we do to improve our lives. I can’t say that the gold mine collapsed and I didn’t find anything, right? I think the opportunity lies in the big A. According to the economic cycle theory, the emperor will take turns to do it and come to my house soon. More importantly, looking at the general trend, the Shanghai Stock Exchange may regain 6000 points in the next few years. The main logic is as follows: 1) China’s economy is different from 10 years ago and a few years ago. Small saplings have become towering trees. Yes, it will soon be number one in the world. 2) With a strong national power and first economy, it will surely bring dividends in the financial market, and funds will flow in with a rush of thinking about the law. 3) The past is the past, the present is the present, and the future is the future. You cannot look at the future with the eyes of the past. What has happened in the past is completely possible. 4) Right now, housing and housing are not speculated. Anything that shows signs of speculation has been speculated. Bitcoin and shoes are speculated. Not to mention good stocks. 5) Choose a stock or fund, and take a few years, I believe there will be surprises.

6 months ago

The first reaction is that as long as the United States strives to print money and release water, there will be as many GDP growth rates as possible. But when I think about it again, things are not that simple. After all, major banks in 2020 predict that the U.S. economy will rebound strongly in 2021. 10%, 8%, etc. are not uncommon. Why is it 6%? The government work report submitted to the Fourth Session of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress on the 5th puts forward the main expected goals for this year’s development. Among them, the GDP growth rate is set to “over 6%.” So the Biden Harris government (huh?) This 6% probability is the product of the thinking of “equal to China”. Dangdang World Beacon thoroughly implements the idea of being equivalent to a third world developing country into the annual GDP indicator, yes.

6 months ago

China says that the GDP growth rate in 2021 will exceed 6%, and the world feels that we are too low-key. The United States says that the GDP growth rate in 2021 will exceed 6%, and the whole world will laugh. Because of the epidemic, the U.S. GDP growth rate in 2020 is -3.5%, which is the result of nuclear-powered money printing machines operating at full capacity to print money. In the past 20 years, the U.S. GDP growth rate fluctuated around 2%, with only two years of growth. If it exceeds 3%, there will be no more than 4%. Now suddenly it is said that the GDP growth rate should exceed 6%. Where is the growth point? I thought about it, and now only the funeral and interment industry can achieve this increase.

6 months ago

What is going on in the United States? In fact, there is only one standard. If the nuclear printing agency is set up, take two steps down, and if it’s okay, take two steps down. Obama’s later period was originally the last chance for the United States to get rid of the dependence on drug use of the dollar, but unfortunately, the drug cannot be stopped now. The U.S. dollar is now the life-sustaining device of the United States. As long as the U.S. dollar stops, the world can start.

6 months ago

Last year, a group of domestic and foreign experts predicted that the US economy would decline less than China’s: because the US does not strictly restrict personal movement like the Chinese epidemic, the impact of economic activities will be relatively small. As a result, everyone has seen that China is thriving and Europe and the United States are unbearable. Now experts have come to predict again “according to common sense”: the United States had a low base last year, so this year’s retaliatory rebound will be higher than that of China (similarly, India is more powerful). how to say? How this sounds like retail investors who like to grab a rebound in the stock market: they have fallen so much, there will be a retaliatory rebound, and they will bounce more than strong stocks. But the real old fritters in the stock market will know a truth: the strong are always strong, the stronger the leader, the more resistant to falling, the faster and higher the future will rise (here we will mention the three brothers who are always hopeful). So, the United States looks like it can bottom out and rebound? What’s more, all current predictions are based on a major premise: the new crown epidemic can end within this year, and economic life can be restored to the pre-new crown era. But no matter how you look at it, it’s like wishful thinking to talk to yourself-you don’t ask about the abnormality of the new crown breaker, just treat him as if he does not exist? Seeing that Europe has already reached the third wave, the first wave in the United States is not over yet? I don’t know where this courage comes from, and do you think the United States can rebound with revenge this year?

6 months ago

A good thing shows that the Cold War in the new era is different from the previous Cold War. The previous Cold War was a military competition. This is an area where the United States excels. Except for aerospace, which was preempted by the Soviet Union, basically the Soviet Union followed the United States in other aspects. As a result, the Soviet Union was dragged down. The Cold War in the new era is an economic competition that tests the level of internal affairs, technology, and diplomacy. At present, it is the United States following the rhythm of China. Generally, what China does is the United States adopts close tactics and follows China. , China sets a GDP target, the United States follows, China is engaged in the Belt and Road Initiative, the United States is also following, China is engaged in infrastructure construction, and the United States is also following. These things are beneficial to the people. Such a competition is beneficial to human progress and is a healthy competition. Even if we did not win the United States in the end, we have surpassed ourselves and improved people’s living standards, which is much better than an arms race. Let the competition be more intense!

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