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I was asked a question on WeChat just now, how to explain the situation below. The above are the vaccination status (blue curve) and daily new cases (brown bar graph) in Israel, the UAE, Chile, and the United States. Among them, Israel has adopted Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine, and the UAE is China’s Sinopharm inactivated vaccine. , Chile is China’s Kexing inactivated vaccine, and the United States is Pfizer, Moderna’s mRNA and Johnson & Johnson’s adenovirus vector vaccine. I can probably think of the mentality of people who repost group pictures in WeChat groups. It’s nothing more than that, if you take a look, the vaccine from Coxing won’t work, but the vaccine from Pfizer will do. So I said, this kind of person is either stupid, bad, or just pretending to be confused. First of all, to emphasize that vaccines are indeed the only way to end the new coronavirus pandemic. But the premise is that after the formation of herd immunity. Before the herd immunity barrier is established, vaccination will not have any effect on the ongoing epidemic. There are several reasons for this. First of all, whether the epidemic situation in a region is aggravated directly depends on the local epidemic control ability and residents’ awareness of protection. I believe everyone can realize this. Secondly, the vaccination and effectiveness of the vaccine need a long period. For example, the national medicine vaccine, for example, can achieve a better protective effect after 2 injections and 20 days after vaccination, that is, 2 injections from the first injection. The effect can only be achieved after a month. Then there is the problem of vaccine protection rate. There is no 100% effective vaccine, which has a lot to do with individual differences. Finally, there is also the issue of virus mutation. At present, the viruses in South America and South Africa have the ability to escape the protection of existing vaccines. So even if a certain area has reached the base of herd immunity, it is only for the past viruses. For new mutations The virus strain has not yet achieved the effect of herd immunity. So again, the vaccination rate will not have any direct impact on the current epidemic. Just like the current Ruili epidemic, although the country has allocated vaccines to give priority to Ruili, it has nothing to do with this epidemic, just to prevent similar incidents from happening again in the future. Going back to the pictures just now, let’s make a comparison with that of Israel. Israel can be said to be the country with the most and fastest vaccinations in the world. If you want to use this chart to explain that Pfizer is effective, then please explain which trough in October 2020 is caused? This is obviously before vaccination, right? This data shows that the time point of the daily decline in the United States is obviously related to the time of the US general election. In other words, the series of epidemic prevention measures adjusted after Biden took office are much more effective than vaccines. Moreover, the data at the end of this chart shows that the epidemic situation in the United States has rebounded. The core point is not the problem of vaccination rate, but the increase in travel during the spring vacation and the indifference to the American epidemic. Here is also an extreme example. In our country, the number of vaccines administered by Sinopharm, Kexing and other domestic vaccines, and the number of vaccination doses per 100 people is gradually increasing, and the daily rate of new additions is very low. What can this explain? Can this data be used to illustrate the effectiveness of the vaccine? This can only show that China’s epidemic prevention measures are very good, right? So, when you see someone taking these pictures or similar pictures to explain things, please put them back elegantly.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

One third of 2021 has passed. Looking at it now, it is possible to end the global pandemic within this year, but the hope is not very high. It mainly needs to look at the global epidemic prevention situation from summer to autumn and winter, the progress of vaccination, and the serious situation in some weak areas. The prevention and control measures for the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) can be divided into medical methods and non-medical methods. Non-medical methods are mainly measures to cut off the transmission route such as wearing masks, goggles, hand washing, and personnel movement control. The main methods are vaccination, drug development, and treatment of patients. Before the emergence of vaccines, mainly in the past 2020, we have seen that countries and regions that have adopted active non-medical methods have relatively good epidemic prevention and control situations, and mobilization Areas with weak management and control capabilities are often very problematic. The most effective medical method is vaccination. If the new crown epidemic spreads like wildfires, individuals who have been vaccinated for effective protection are like fire barriers. However, whether the vaccine can be effective and thus end the new crown pandemic, the following factors need to be considered. 1 The true protection rate of the vaccine is verified by Phase III clinical trials. In the real world, the protection rate of the vaccine may still be different, and vaccination that does not reach the effective protection rate will have a positive effect on the prevention and control of the entire epidemic. To be discounted. Take the RNA vaccine as an example (bioart has already reported on it. The RNA vaccine is selected here just to illustrate the problem and has no other inclination). On February 18, 2021, Israeli researchers published a report on Lancet An article systematically described the real-world benefits of BNT162b2 vaccination in a small-scale medical staff cohort [1]. As of January 24, 2021, among 9109 eligible people, 7,214 had received the first vaccination. 6037 people received the second injection (of which 5,505 (91%) received the second injection on the 21st or 22nd day after the first injection). There were 6,818 (95%) vaccinated people in Sheba Medical Center, and the remaining 396 people were in the community but reported to Sheba Medical Center. Between December 19, 2020 and January 24, 2021, 170 people were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (99 people (58%) had symptoms), of which 89 people (52%) were not vaccinated. 78 people (46%) tested positive after the first injection, and 3 people (2%) tested positive after the second injection. Among 125 cases of traceable infections, 87 (70%) were community infections. The results showed that compared with people who were not vaccinated, the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was 7.4 per 10,000 people day, and the infection rate was 5.5 per 10,000 people day on the first to 14 days and 15 to 28 days after the first injection. And 3,000 per 10,000 people per day. The SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was reduced by 30% (95% CI 2-50) and 75% (72-84) respectively; further looking at symptomatic COVID-19, the incidence rate was 50,000 per 10,000 people, the first after the first injection The infection rates from 1 to 14 days and 15 to 28 days were 2.8 per 10,000-person day and 12,000 per 10,000-person day, respectively. The SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was reduced by 47% (95% CI 17-66) and 85% (71-92), respectively. At the same time, nference also conducted a preliminary assessment of the real-world vaccination effect of 62,138 people in the Mayo clinic system from December 1, 2020 to February 8, 2021. Among them, 31,069 people received at least one shot of RNA vaccine. , 8041 people received two shots, but they are still at risk of infection for at least 36 days after the first shot. The results showed that the two-injection protection rate was 88.7%[2] (95%CI: 68.4-97.1%), and the onset was generally at least 36 days after the first injection. Furthermore, the 14-day hospitalization rate of vaccinated COVID-19 confirmed patients was also significantly lower than the matched control group (3.7% vs 9.2%). These two preliminary results together show that in a complex real world, the protection rate of RNA vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19 may be more than 85%, which is basically in line with the results of clinical trials. There are many factors that affect the protection rate of vaccines in the real world. For example, the effect may be reduced due to imperfect refrigeration, storage, transportation, vaccination, etc.; the immune function of the elderly is degraded, and the response to the vaccine is delayed or reduced; prevalent in some areas New strains may also have an impact on the vaccine protection rate; in addition, vaccinated people are more likely to relax their vigilance and increase the risk of exposure to the virus.

7 months ago

The mutant virus of the virus is not static, standing there waiting for us to carry out the immune design. Viruses can mutate, especially for coronaviruses such as SARS-COV-2. In the process of global spread, replication is not completely fidelity. Changes in genetic material will bring continuous changes in phenotypes. Vaccines that have been produced Is it still protective against the mutated virus? Nature published a paper entitled mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants [3] by Michel Nussenzweig’s team [3]. The study showed that Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech’s mRNA new crown vaccine against N501Y (popular in the UK and South Africa) The neutralizing activity of E484K and K417N:E484K:N501Y combination variants will decrease slightly. This study based on 20 individuals shows that these vaccines may need to be updated regularly to prevent possible loss of clinical efficacy. In order to determine whether the plasma of the vaccinated individual can neutralize the SARS-CoV-2 variant strain that is circulating, the researchers tested the plasma samples with retroviruses-these retroviruses have been modified to express the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein One of 10 different mutations, including receptor binding domain mutations N501Y, E484K, K417N, and a combination of these three mutations. The neutralizing activity against E484K, N501Y and K417N:E484K:N501Y mutant strains decreased by 1-3 times. Among the 17 most potent monoclonal antibodies tested, the neutralizing ability of 14 monoclonal antibodies against N501Y, E484K, and K417N variants has decreased. On February 8, 2021, Peiyong Shi’s research team from The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (UTMB) and Pfizer published a titled Neutralization of SARS-CoV in Nature Medicine. -2 spike 69/70 deletion, E484K and N501Y variants by BNT162b2 vaccine-elicited sera article. The study tested for the first time the changes in the neutralizing ability of the antiserum of the population immunized with Pfizer’s BNT162b2 vaccine against the mutant new coronavirus containing three spike protein mutations, and answered the question of whether the current vaccine can effectively protect the mutant new coronavirus, and is a future vaccine The development and improvement of the company provides important information. Through the genetic evolution analysis of the virus, Shi Peiyong’s research team identified three key mutation points: the 60/70 amino acid deletion, the 484th and the 501th amino acid mutations on the spike protein of the British and South African variants of the new coronavirus, and constructed and rescued the corresponding The recombinant mutant virus. Subsequently, the antiserum of the population immunized with Pfizer’s BNT162b2 vaccine was used to detect the change of the serum’s ability to neutralize the mutant virus. The experimental results showed that the neutralizing ability of the antiserum against the mutant strains with the British variant virus increased by 1.46 times, and the neutralizing ability against the mutant strains with the South African variant virus decreased slightly to 0.81 times (Figure 1). Although the protective power of the mutated virus vaccine fluctuates, it can be considered to be still effective. 3 Vaccine acceptance and vaccination schedule are actually the biggest problems. Good medicine is hard to cure injustice, and good words are hard to persuade fools. Even if the vaccine is safe and effective, group vaccination can speed up the end of the new crown pandemic to the greatest extent, but if people are subjectively unwilling to vaccinate, everything will be futile. This is not without precedent. Measles is one of the main causes of death in young children and can be effectively prevented by vaccination. On September 27, 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the elimination of measles in the Americas. However, in less than two years, measles cases have revived. In 2019, measles outbreaks broke out in many places around the world. One big reason for this is that the spread of the “anti-vaccine movement” has led to most people not being vaccinated. Taking a closer look, in March of this year, anti-vaccine professionals in Texas, the United States, began to worry about the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine, not the virus itself. Although the development of the vaccine may take another year, the state’s huge anti-vaccine community has already Be prepared to resist [4]. The suppression of “anti-vaccination” views has never stopped. WHO has added “vaccine hesitation” to the list of the top ten global health threats in 2019; during the measles outbreak in 2019, there were also quite a few news reports supporting vaccination and publicly opposing “anti-vaccination” views; supporting vaccination groups and Facebook There have also been efforts to resist the “anti-vaccination” view; major social media have also been trying to control the spread of online health information and misinformation… But why are negative views so powerful and extremely resilient? ? How did these negative opinions spread and evolve at the system level? How are those people who were hesitant to make choices? On May 13, 2020, the research team of Neil F. Johnson from George Washington University in the United States published an article titled The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views[5] in Nature, providing a system-level multiple An ecological analysis involves the views expressed by nearly 100 million people on vaccination. These views come from approximately 3 billion highly dynamic Facebook users in different countries, continents, and languages. The seven characteristics of this unprecedented intricate cluster network and its evolution have answered the above questions (Figure 1). At the same time, the analysis results of this article provide information for the proposal of new policies and methods, which will help break the public’s negative views. The situation turned. Online ecology network on vaccination views [Green dots: indecisive groups; red dots: opposing groups of vaccination; blue dots: supporting vaccination groups; black circle: the growth rate of the outer chain of the cluster exceeds 50%. 】First of all, although the number of anti-vaccine groups is small and there are marginal points in ideology, the anti-vaccine group has become the center in terms of its positioning within the network. The vaccine support group is only in a small network, but they may not know it, and mistakenly believe that their efforts are winning. Secondly, we probably think that those who are hesitant to make a decision will be passively persuaded by anti-vaccine or vaccine-supporting groups, but the analysis results prove that this group of people has a high degree of initiative-the hesitating group has the highest The growth rate of new out-links (the number of target pages pointing to other single pages of this website), and the indecisive population entangled with anti-vaccine groups often shows this high out-link growth. Third, compared with those who support vaccination, the number of groups formed by those who oppose vaccination is more than twice that of the former because the average size of the groups formed by them is much smaller. This means that opposition groups have more places to spread their views. Therefore, although the media atmosphere during 2019 is opposed to anti-vaccination views, many anti-vaccination groups can still manage to improve their network center status and try to better Cover the entire network. Fourth, this article’s qualitative analysis of group content shows that anti-vaccine groups are better at providing a wide range of potentially attractive narratives, including topics such as safety issues, conspiracy theories, alternative health, and medical care, than single-theme discussions of vaccine support groups. , Also involves the source and treatment of the current new coronary pneumonia COVID-19 virus, and its narrative is similar to that reported in the literature. Fifth, the analysis results show that during the measles outbreak in 2019, the anti-vaccination group had the highest growth rate, while the support group had the lowest growth rate. This is also consistent with the number of anti-vaccination groups, who can attract more hesitant individuals by providing many different types of clusters, and each cluster has its own negative narrative about vaccines. Sixth, unlike a widely accepted theory of population dynamics (the theory that groups grow through preference attachment, that is, a larger scale attracts more new members), the study found that the medium-sized anti-vaccination group The growth is the fastest because they can grow slowly without being noticed by the supportive vaccination groups. Finally, geographic factors are also favorable factors for anti-vaccination groups. They either distribute themselves in cities, states, or countries, or they remain global. In addition, the theoretical framework of this study reproduces the recent explosive growth of anti-vaccine views, and predicts that these views will dominate within 10 years. Of course, this study also predicts that by increasing the heterogeneity within the cluster, the growth rate of the influential anti-vaccination group can be reduced, and the start of the future anti-vaccination group (or connection with the indecisive group) can be delayed time. In summary, the results of this study challenge people’s traditional thinking about hesitating individuals on health issues, and emphasize the key role of network cluster dynamics in multi-species ecology. In addition, research suggests that traditional large-scale action models cannot be reliably used to predict similar online social behaviors (such as climate issues, health issues, etc.) or policy formulation, and propose a new theoretical framework to describe this social ecology. This provides instructions for the proposal of new policies that support vaccination groups or platforms to intervene in anti-vaccine views. In summary, we can get some key information about the current situation: the existing vaccines are effective, even in the face of virus mutation, vaccination and subsequent vaccine iterations can ensure the effectiveness of the vaccine. The key to the problem is how to speed up the progress of vaccination. Therefore, we call on people who can be vaccinated (except those who do not meet the vaccination requirements) should try their best to get vaccinated regardless of the vaccine. Unknown fears of adverse reactions should be eliminated. Of course, the cooperation of corresponding propaganda work and data disclosure work is also needed , So that the public can fully understand the protection rate of vaccination, the type and probability of adverse reactions. Every immunized person who is vaccinated is a soldier who pushes the new crown virus into a corner.

7 months ago

It is very difficult to end the new crown pandemic in 2021. On April 4, there were 550,000 new coronavirus infections worldwide, a total of 130 million cases; 6826 new deaths, a total of 2.86 million cases. The number of people vaccinated in the United States currently exceeds 100 million, which is less than 40% of the national population. 30 million people in the UK have received the first dose of the vaccine, accounting for about 57% of the total number of adults in the UK. These are still two countries that have their own production lines to produce vaccines, and other Western countries are not in the turn. China and Russia have provided vaccines to more than 50 countries, but the number is limited. They can only vaccinate key populations (such as doctors, etc.) in each country first, and it is far from universal vaccination. Most countries in the world do not have vaccines. In some backward countries, because of insufficient medical facilities and insufficient testing equipment, it is not clear how many people are infected. Even India can’t even talk about universal testing. According to calculations based on the proportion of infected people randomly selected in New Delhi, India has already infected 300 million people. The death toll in these countries is also confused. Since there is no test, many of them died as other diseases. The government also doesn’t want to burst out shocking figures. Everyone keeps one eye open. By the end of this year, most Western countries will be vaccinated, and the infection rate will drop significantly. Large developing countries have begun to vaccinate in large numbers, which is a good result. There are other constraints, such as: there is no mutated virus that can resist the vaccine, and it is not difficult for too many people to refuse vaccination. The danger of infectious diseases is that as long as there is one disease, the whole world will feel insecure. Therefore, even if Western countries are vaccinated, there is no safety in other countries in the world, and it is still difficult to guarantee absolute safety. In addition, the new crown virus mutates very fast, and it is difficult to say that the vaccine will protect for several years. Once there is a variant that can escape the vaccine, you have to wait for a new vaccine. The world may return to its original state again. Let alone these, vaccination is now the only way to fight the virus. Even if there is a vaccine, the government’s management level and the availability of medical facilities are also a test. The United States, which claims to have first-class medical facilities, experienced huge chaos at the beginning of vaccination. The states protested the uneven distribution of vaccines and related priority vaccination. According to China’s experience, in the initial stage of the game with infectious diseases, the most reliable thing is the government’s comprehensive management and control capabilities. Without a vaccine, China controlled the epidemic in only two months. In the long run, all people will be vaccinated. This year, the country has begun to promote free vaccination for all citizens. I hope you will respond as soon as possible and get the vaccination as soon as possible.

7 months ago

Let me start with the conclusion. It is impossible for 2-3 years to end completely like sars, but does it mean that you can’t go out, can’t go abroad, or travel before that? I am more optimistic. I expect that by August 2021, the epidemic in most parts of the world will be greatly reduced. It is normal for the winter to get worse. This winter is not as unprepared as last year. With herd immunization, vaccines, and With the increased awareness of prevention and control experience, the winter will definitely be better every year

7 months ago

Difficult, just say that around us, now the community is vaccinated for free, how many people are vaccinated? In terms of guiding users, you have to learn more from mobile games. For example, can you get the vaccine early, and the photos of the health dock will enable the beauty function. Others have black fonts, and the vaccinated ones have gold fonts. When you enter the store and scan the code, the voice prompts “Prestigious Immunity Residents Admission”. For another example, after vaccination, unlock the healthy dock frame with lace around it. From the simplest ordinary lace to the holiday limited avatar frame with dynamic light and shadow effects. If you want to get the new frame, you must forward and recommend friends to vaccinate, and activate one for every 5 new people recommended. You can never imagine how far human beings can take the initiative to unlock achievements.

7 months ago

Pfizer’s vaccine works well. I’m a purely medical layman, just look at some data briefly. Israel has infected thousands to hundreds every day for two months (330 people were infected on April 4 and 8000+ at the beginning of January), and 60% of the Israeli population was vaccinated on April 4. ——But it cannot prove that Pfizer is easy to use, because from a scientific point of view, various reasons must be studied. Someone must have suggested that there are many reasons such as the hot weather, the lockdown of the city, the elect of God, the arrival of Biden’s money, and the fraud. Let me explain: this picture is by age group. At Christmas last year, the starting points of all age groups in Israel were not too different, reaching the peak of diagnoses on January 15 (8,000 people a day). But at the same time, keep in mind that Pfizer vaccines are administered from the high age group to the low age group, that is, the elderly (80 years old and 65 years old and above) are vaccinated separately first, and then the order is reversed to the young people. People under the age of 16 are forbidden to vaccinate. In Israel, a “theoretical immunization” group (also the oldest group) appeared on the 7th and 8th of January, who had completed both injections. Then it can be approximated that the peak on January 15 is the situation where the vaccine is almost zero, and the proportion of young people is high, which can be considered because young people do not care about the epidemic. However, it is obvious that after January 15th, when a large number of vaccinations started, the elderly group (over 60 years old) declined faster than the young people, and did not rebound; in the same period, the 40-59 year-old group and the 20-39 year-old group At first, the number of cases did not decline or even had a trend of counter-increasing, but it also began to decline rapidly after a month, which should also be the effect of the vaccine. The purple line (60-79 years old group) is the most representative, because the 80+ group may have data bias due to the relatively small number of people. It seems that in theory group immunization requires more than 75% of the population to be cured + vaccine. Israel should reach this limit in another month, and it may be more representative to look at the new additions at that time.

7 months ago

From January 22 to 23, Xicheng District, Beijing completed the nucleic acid test of 1,130,680 people in batches, and one person was found to be positive for the first time. The person was tested at the Shichahai lotus market inspection point at 16:39 on January 22. The Xicheng District subsequently reviewed the person and found that he was a confirmed case diagnosed and cured after entering Shanghai in August 2020, and he entered Beijing in October after meeting relevant regulations. The possibility of rejuvenation is not ruled out. The person has been transferred to a designated hospital for further diagnosis and treatment, and his close contacts have been isolated for observation and nucleic acid testing, and environmental testing and disinfection of the places involved. The nucleic acid test results of related personnel and environmental samples are all negative. Recently, there have been several cases of “fuyang” patients. Except for this case in Beijing, which may be a patient with Fuyang, on January 24, a confirmed case was found in Fushan County, Shanxi Province and recovered after recovery. The patient was an immigrant and was observed in home medicine. After the quarantine period expired, the nucleic acid test was positive and he was diagnosed as an asymptomatic infection. On January 18, Jieyang, Guangdong, also found a case of asymptomatic infection imported from abroad. Experts authoritatively interpret issues related to “rejuvenation” after rehabilitation Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Some related patients were found to be positive for nucleic acid during follow-up after discharge. There are three possibilities for this phenomenon. First, there are false negatives or false positives in nucleic acid testing. For example, two nucleic acid negatives before discharge are false negatives or follow-up nucleic acids are positive, and the results are false positives. Second, the virus has become active again. Third, re-infection. For the first case, multiple sampling from multiple sites can reduce the occurrence of false negatives or false positives. For the second case, the mechanism is still unclear. Limited research suggests that this type of patient is not highly infectious, and no cases of transmission have been observed. For the third case of re-infection, the infectivity is similar to that of other first-time infected patients. Generally speaking, the proportion of patients who appear to be nucleic acid positive again during follow-up is not high, about less than 5%.

7 months ago

Suppose the title says global? You first calculate with math problems. There are seven billion people in the world, and you don’t need money for vaccines. Can you finish the fight this year? Think about it again, seven billion may be tens of billions of various vaccines. The production cost, transportation, storage, injection organization and management, would be tens of trillions, right? Where does the money come from? Even if you have money, how many countries and what percentage of people are unwilling to inject, and at the same time have to go wild, what do you do? Even if you can control it-it’s okay, it can’t be managed-can you control the new crown mutation? I said at the beginning of last year that this view has not changed now, and it happens to be very similar to what Trump said at the time… I can only wait for various reasons to get together, the new crown itself can’t stand up, I am confused and can’t tell what’s going on, just like SARS. , Suddenly faded. In other words, people’s self-discipline + proper isolation + vaccine effect + weather change +new crown benign mutation + no government is holding back. In summary, the new crown may end. Shit luck this summer, I think there may be a possibility of less than 10%. Otherwise it will be the summer of 2022, and so on. I know I know, I haven’t forgotten the southern hemisphere. and so? A random calculation is 10% x 10%, about 1% probability? I think this year we should pay close attention to the changes in Brazil from June to July. If we see some patterns, does China really have to consider the possibility of “closing the country”?

7 months ago

At present, the proportion of vaccination in the UK is relatively the largest, probably above 50%. Then the mortality rate of the epidemic in the UK is the highest in the world, yes, it is even higher than that of the United States. In the United States, the total number of vaccine injections is currently the largest, with more than 160 million injections. The total population of the United States is only 300 million. The proportion of all 2 injections completed is about 20% (18% for the 4.5 number), which is about 60 million people. Among them, the injection rate for people over 64 years old is more than 50%, and about 75% of the remaining injectable people have more than one injection. This is the vaccination rate that can only be obtained by relying on the absolute “America First” without giving allies to allies. According to this ratio, the United States should be safe, right? But no, the epidemic is now in a bottleneck period in the United States. During this period, the number of people infected with the epidemic every day was between 30,000 and 50,000. Compared to the 100,000 plus infections per day in the front-end time, it is much better. But it is far from enough to end the epidemic. There are several main reasons. 1. The amount of vaccine injection and the injection rate are still far from enough. At present, only 20% of the two injections are completely injected, and the so-called “herd immunity” can only be achieved if it reaches more than 70%. And everyone should pay attention that in the United States, children under the age of 18 are not vaccinated. Then the United States still needs at least 200 million shots of vaccinations. 2. The virus mutates. It is very likely that the mutated form will appear before the vaccine is completely injected. In fact, the British new crown virus (first discovered in the UK) has spread in the United States. This has led to more young people being hospitalized, including children, with more serious illnesses. In the past, the elderly were generally hospitalized, and they were relatively mild. 3. Lax prevention of epidemics has led to repeated epidemics. In many areas, with the injection of vaccines and people’s slack, the epidemic continues to repeat. In many parts of the United States, many people no longer wear masks. (Unlike most areas of China with 0 infections, every area in the United States has infections, so you must stick to 0 before you can take off the mask.) 4. Everyone knows that the epidemic will naturally shrink in the summer. When the epidemic is zero or very small, it is okay for everyone to relax. But for the United States’ current summer of 30,000 to 200,000 per day, the winter will inevitably return to the terrible situation of 100,000 to 200,000 per day. At the front end, Biden and the U.S. government are enthusiastic, claiming that their GDP growth rate can reach 6% this year, and he is proud of the amount of vaccines he has injected. However, as soon as the bottleneck of the recent epidemic broke out, the United States fell into a state of despair. Many Americans, including medical officials in the United States, are worried about the development of the epidemic. If this summer or before autumn, the United States cannot complete a better epidemic firewall, then it is very likely that the epidemic will re-erupt this winter.

7 months ago

There is no optimistic view on the view of relying on vaccines. Generally speaking, the immunity of individuals to the virus comes from two conditions, one is the vaccine, and the other is natural infection. It must be recognized that the vaccine is not 100% effective, and preliminary investigations of SARS-CoV-2 also show that infection-related immunity seems to weaken over time. From the above figure, we can see that although the rate of new additions in many countries with severe epidemics has decreased significantly in early 2021, although it is undeniable that vaccines have played an important role in them, it cannot be doubted that a large number of people have been infected and cause infection. The reduction of the host further leads to a slowdown in the rate of infection. At the same time, there will be many variants of the virus, and human behavior cannot be completely controlled by the government, which increases the unpredictability. Therefore, since late February, the number of daily new cases worldwide has risen again. Of course, for us Chinese who are in the safest place in the world, we do not have to be disappointed because the vaccine does not imagine that the virus can be eliminated once and for all. Now it is said to “normalize epidemic prevention and control”, so ordinary people trust the government, trust doctors, and wear masks as much as possible in public. Guowu Hospital has asked all Xinguan designated hospitals to cooperate with local scientific research institutes or universities to find out and treat every new case as soon as possible. Take the case of Pixian, Chengdu in early December last year. Although the results were reported on the Internet a month later, the teacher in Huaxi said that a series of sequencing and tracing work was actually completed in two days, and it was only reported a month for caution ( Why did you close the school for so long! To death?) When the epidemic was the worst last year, we didn’t have a vaccine and we depended on everyone to survive it

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