On the evening of April 8, SF Holdings announced its first quarter performance forecast for 2021, with an estimated loss of 900 million to 1.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. The company has a profit of 907 million yuan in the same period in 2020.

In response to the performance loss in the first quarter, SF Holdings stated in the announcement that the 2020 epidemic has delayed the company’s capital expenditure investment rhythm to a certain extent, and the upward trend of customer demand is obvious. The company’s business volume has grown rapidly, resulting in capacity bottlenecks in multiple links of Express.

SF Holdings began to increase its temporary resource input in the fourth quarter of 2020 to undertake the increase, resulting in pressure on costs in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, SF Holdings began to increase capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2020, upgrade the automated production capacity of the transit field, and improve resource efficiency.

SF Holdings expects that in the second quarter of 2021, the pressure on capacity bottlenecks will be further eased, and economies of scale will begin to be released in the second half of the year.

In addition, SF Holdings also stated that during the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the delivery of anti-epidemic supplies and online consumer goods will further drive the high growth of time-sensitive parts. The growth rate in the first quarter of this year will be affected by this high base; at the same time, due to the fact that peers are in some regions during the Spring Festival The non-closing arrangement has differentiated part of the scattered order business, and the growth of the scattered order business in the time-limited package has been lower than expected.

It is not so much a company operation problem as it is an industry management problem. The first quarter was the golden season of revenue for the express delivery company, and the result was lost. It needs a serious diagnosis. Today, SF Holdings (002352) has a lower limit. As the leader of the domestic express delivery industry, it has fallen by 35% since the beginning of this year. It is expected that the trend in the next few days is not optimistic. In fact, the downward channel has already been formed, as evidenced by the fact that market investors voted with their feet. Of course, I am not a stock analyst, so I will not discuss the valuation trend of SF Holdings. After all, that is not my specialty. I am only a management consultant in human resources, and can only analyze from the perspective of my understanding. Taking the Yiwu market in Zhejiang Province as an example, the price war has intensified. The logistics from Yiwu to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is generally 5 yuan for a 10-15 kg box, and an express delivery only costs 80 cents. Such a price is not enough to support the healthy development of the express company. of. Employee wages + operating expenses and income are inverted. Is it strange that the express industry does not lose money? ! Look at the stock market. YTO, Shentong, and Yunda have all fallen into dogs. The express market is not fully competitive, and the express market is in random competition. If you can’t make money in the market, you take money from the stock market and burn it like this. The majority of stockholders will not be stupid, and they will generally provide financial support for these express companies. The biggest cost of an express company is people, vehicles, warehouses, and the logistics information management system that runs through them. The business may not make money for a while, and if it does not make money for a long time, it is more than just a SF company that is injured?


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

Not surprisingly, many people, including me, also complain about Cainiao Inn, but Cainiao Inn meets people’s needs in most cases, and more importantly, Cainiao Inn greatly reduces the labor cost of express delivery. SF Express delivery to the terminal personally suffers a lot and is inefficient. Another JD logistics has also risen up, and it has had homogenous competition with SF Express, and its business has a lot of overlap. Especially for large e-commerce customers, many choose JD.com. JD Logistics also offers great discounts on this. During the Chinese New Year holiday, a large number of temporary workers were recruited, and a lot of money was spent.

7 months ago

There is no moat in a segment of business model innovation, not basic technology innovation. The capital market is tired of this kind of business model innovation. SF Express can do it, and so can the subsequent spoilers. Jitu has already been valued at 7.8 billion, and it is unknown how many Jitu will appear in the future. If Taobao is doing a good job, Pinduoduo can surpass. What is impossible? This is the distrust of capital in this model. The industry leader’s single-quarter loss also verifies the fragility of this model.

7 months ago

I am not a professional researcher of industries and companies, and I am a trader. I only talk about the operation of this stock’s stock price to give investors a reference. This question, as mentioned in the title, has lost more than 160 billion yuan in market value in two months. Just listen to the scary title of the party. Before today, the stock price fell from 124 to 80, a 35% drop. It is the average decline of a high-level group stock. Why divide SF Express’s stock price into today and after today? Because of the high-level group stock price movement, there is really a watershed in the middle. We will talk about it next. After a year, Baotuan stocks fell the least, Wangguizhou Moutai fell from 2627 to 1900, down 27.6%. Photovoltaic Maolongji shares fell from 125 to 75, a 40% drop. New energy Mao BYD fell from 273 to 155, a drop of 43%. The edible oil Mao Arowana fell from 145 to 73, a drop of 50%. Yimeimao Aimeike, from 737 to 359, fell 51%. In comparison, express Mao Shunfeng fell 35%, which is the average of the high-level group. The stock king Moutai was not immune from a drop of nearly 30%, so the express Mao fell so much. This process of killing the price is a process of violently killing valuation and violent harvesting. Baotuan stocks fell so much, and they also led the index, especially the ChiNext. In the short term, 3476 fell to 2603, and the index fell 25%. After the sharp drop, the market slowed down. Also ushered in a quarterly report time window. In this time window, the quarterly report on performance divided the Baotuan stocks into two camps. Baotuan Jiuguijiu’s quarterly report performance surged, and its stock price rebounded from 121 to 186. Baotuan stock COSCO SHIPPING Holdings surged 51 times in the first quarter, with a net profit of 15.4 billion. The most powerful annual report on the market before, Tencent Holdings, reported net profit. It is 110 billion, and the stunning degree of this quarterly report of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is no less than that of Tencent. The stock price rebounded from 9.59 to 17.77, a new high in more than 10 years! ! Previously, it was the same as Baotuan stocks, falling from 17.65 to 9.59, a 45% drop. Performance is the fate of Baotuan stocks in the near future. SF Holdings reported a burst of losses for the first quarter, and today’s one-character limit fell, which is very normal. Let’s go back to Baotuan stocks and A-share indexes. Baotuan stocks did not fall in place this round, and naturally neither did the index. The market must make the valuation reasonable in order to move forward better, lest the market does not move when liquidity tightens, and a tragedy like 18 years occurs. ZJH has to invite state-owned assets from various places to help.

7 months ago

This matter should be viewed in two steps. One is why SF Express lost 1 billion in the first quarter, and the other is that its market value decreased by 160 billion in two months. Because these are two things. Let’s look at the loss of SF Express in the first quarter. I read it when SF Express made the announcement yesterday. Earning 900 million in the first quarter of 20, and losing 1 billion in the first quarter of 21, this rate is really big. The reversal is very strong, with a change of 1 billion to 1 billion. According to the announcement, the company dumped the pot to five golden flowers. The first golden flower is a new project recently and a large investment. The second golden flower is that business is very good recently, but the production capacity is insufficient, so it is costly to recruit temporary workers and rent temporary venues. The third most expensive one is the repair of the airport, but land transportation is more popular recently, so the cost is a bit expensive. The fourth golden flower is that there is no holiday during the Spring Festival, and triple wages are too much for the company. The fifth golden flower is the fierce market competition in recent months. The price of express delivery has not risen but dropped, which is so uncomfortable. It stands to reason that all logics work, but we have to find the most important one from the inside. If you analyze one by one, you will certainly not be able to find out which is the key. After all, each of the above has a pivotal position in SF’s income statement. We might as well start from another angle. I think in the first quarter of 2020, although SF Express made 900 million yuan, its net profit margin was only 2.49%. In other words, SF Express only has a net profit of 2.49 yuan for every 100 yuan of revenue. The cost is slightly fluctuating, so this two yuan and four cents are gone. Well, there will be a wave of turbulence in 2021. In this way, SF Express must be an unstable business and often lose money. Not at all. Despite the low gross profit margin, SF Express has a stable operation and can raise the unit price and pass the cost to customers. It seems that the gross profit margin is very low, but in fact it is also a safety line to prevent others from competing. Express Mao Zhenshen. Unfortunately, the problem now is that due to fierce market competition, SF Express can no longer pass on the cost to downstream customers through price increases. On the contrary, it has to reduce prices to compete for customers. We see that the first four are all about how to increase the cost, only the fifth is that I cannot pass on the cost. Therefore, Article 5 is the key. This also means that the golden body of the courier Mao was broken. Moving on to the second part, SF Express lost 160 billion in market value. SF’s pe is still 45 times. This means buying at the current price, and under the circumstance of unchanged profits, it will take 45 years to theoretically recover the cost. Then I would like to ask, if a company’s business logic and profitability have encountered challenges, are you still willing to invest?

7 months ago

SF Holdings made a loss in the first quarter, and outstanding companies continue to develop, and there will always be different cycles of rapid growth, stable performance, and decline in performance. What is hateful is not the enterprise, but the cancer in the market of the organization. When A-share institutions were hyping, they used all kinds of logical analysis, all kinds of great excellence, and the cash flow was discounted to 50 years and 100 years, and the price-earnings ratio reached 100 times pe. Only tell the story, not the valuation. Once the performance declines, there are various ghost stories, killing performance and valuation and logic, and the company is devalued to be worthless and is about to go bankrupt.

7 months ago

SF Express itself gave five reasons: 1. The company is in the period of new business expansion. In order to expand market share and build core competitiveness, the company continues to increase investment. 2. The epidemic last year delayed the company’s capital expenditures, but customer demand has risen significantly, so the money was moved to this year. 3. The company re-examined the investment of resources in each business line and integrated resources. In the initial stage of integration, there will be overlapping investment of resources, which is expected to be effective in the third quarter of this year. It means that things need to be upgraded, so it took a bit more. 4. During the Spring Festival, business did not stop, and more bonuses were given to employees. 5. Colleagues also came to grab business during the Spring Festival, diversifying business income and reducing profits. From the financial report of SF Express, since it went public, it has never experienced a single quarter loss. SF Express also gave 77 times the highest valuation, which is indeed a bit outrageous. In the express industry, the average valuation is at most 20-25 times. It shows that everyone expects him too high and feels that he is still going to grow substantially. If the performance this year does not increase but declines, for example, the performance drops by 10%, how much will the valuation fall? This is no use. Even if everyone thinks that he can still grow high in the future, it is estimated that he will be given a valuation of at most 40 times, then the corresponding price is only more than 50, which means that once the high point triggers the situation of Davis double killing, the stock price It’s normal to fall in the middle. The enlightenment from this incident is that overestimation is not terrible. The terrible thing is that performance is also overestimated, and everyone’s enthusiasm is also extremely high. This is the most dangerous Davis double kill, that is, killing performance while killing valuation. Thinking about one thing too well makes it very easy to be disappointed. In the future, many core assets may have this problem. In the past two years, the speculation is too high. Everyone thinks that they are too good. The valuation is not low, and the performance is at the end. Once he starts to decline in performance, the market will inevitably usher in a sharp decline. . So please remember that if you don’t go where there are many people, there is no high performance that can grow forever. Continuous growth of 20-30%, this kind of thing will not last for a few years. On the contrary, the growth of 10%-15% can last longer. The great, long-term growth companies in history have actually averaged an annual growth rate of 8%, so don’t expect too much. Remember, don’t go where there are too many people.

7 months ago

The trend of “falling and falling” all the way! Good guys came directly to a lower limit today. Although when the results were announced last night, it was expected that it would open significantly lower today, but I did not expect to directly block the lower limit! After all, the stock price trend has already left a lot of people. Today, it directly fell by more than 300,000 hands and blocked it. It is expected that it will fall to about 60 in the future (personal prediction only). When the trading volume shrinks and consolidates, then consider entering the market! Take a look at the following points: 1. Last year, the global epidemic was affected to varying degrees. For example, during the epidemic, the logistics industry increased subsidies for salespersons. These expenses increased operating costs, and then it was for diversified development. Expanded the industry layout and invested in front-end costs. 2. The increase in business volume and the bottleneck of production capacity, so the automation upgrade, increased cost input. 3. SF Express comprehensively integrates resources such as express network, express network, warehousing network, and franchise network farms and lines, but in the initial stage of integration, there is a phenomenon of overlapping resources. 4. Last year, Pinduoduo’s Extreme Rabbit Express has various low-price wars, grabbing market share, and the competition in the logistics industry has become more fierce. This wave of SF smashed, I think it is another good investment opportunity, but the admission still needs a long time. As the industry leader, SF Express is probably the best express delivery you have ever used. It is estimated that SF Express is the two of SF Jingdong! This time, the super forecast loss in the first quarter is worrying, and the subsequent quarters will begin to pick up. Wait for a good time to buy!

7 months ago

Interest-related: Does not hold SF Express and its related stocks. SF’s decline in this round is to kill valuation. Excluding the factor of stock price, SF Express’s loss this time is actually positive rather than negative. The fundamental reason for SF Express’s loss is that it will make a short-term loss by planning for the future and increasing investment. To put it simply and crudely, SF Express has invested, but its friends did not. In the future, SF Express will only consolidate its leading position. However, because of the fund’s group rise, the future growth has been overdrawn, so even if the first quarter’s performance loss was due to expansion, rather than poor management or bad logic, the stock price is still not good. Of course, SF Express has indeed risen too much before. From a long-term perspective, SF Express is still a very good company, but it is not suitable for intervention in the short term because the margin of safety is not enough.

7 months ago

So where is the certainty premium, the premium of core assets, and the fact that a company looks at ten years and a hundred years, they are all cheating leek. You can’t understand the performance of a quarter, and a quarterly report can influence the decision-making of all investors. There is no such thing as an enterprise that has been looking at a century and a decade, and it will be cut at every turn. A little bit of trouble, and I’m advocating value investment with you. The funds and institutions that invest in the long-term run faster than you, because they have better information than you. I found that those who really believe in value investment, long-term investment, eat dividends, and ignore short-term performance in A-shares are often really individual investors. In many cases, organizations are actually chucks. They are advocating certainty premiums and value investment with you today. After a round of market conditions, they can immediately tell you that there is no certainty in this world, and the greatest certainty is uncertainty. , Soldiers are impermanent, water is impermanent, and we must embrace change.

7 months ago

Everyone who sends express delivery knows that SF Express is very fast, but I didn’t expect to lose money so quickly. In fact, many cities may be equipped with couriers according to the local economic development. There are basically no other express delivery services. Only SF Express, JD.com, China Post, and even Sometimes only the postal service can be delivered to the designated depository, while SF Express and JD.com can only go to the courier point. Therefore, I still like SF Express for the express delivery business, and it is not a big problem. So where does this wave of losses come from? In fact, it can be understood in one sentence that SF Express’s new businesses other than express delivery are basically at a loss, including: SF Express→Bulky Logistics, which can’t compete with Debon, and may not be able to compete with some local companies such as SF Express, Fengnong.com, and Datong. The customer department may also have Fengchao. It is said that SF Express and Fengnong.com have been cut off before the Spring Festival. Of course, it may also be layoffs. In addition, PDD’s Extreme Rabbit Express has entered the game, bringing this express industry into chaos again, so various express companies have begun to burn money again~ Do you feel it? Having said that, I still have 2 hands that SF hasn’t thrown, hum!

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