On April 10, Zhu Min, dean of the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University and former vice president of the IMF, stated at the 2021 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum that the average monthly flow of Chinese people is now 9GB, which is higher than 50% of OECD countries; 10 Years later, in 2030 (China) per capita traffic will probably reach 100GB/month.

In fact, a large part of the credit for the current per capita 9G traffic is that the country required the three major operators to “speed up and reduce fees.” The root of the booming mobile Internet in recent years is actually here. I remember when I was in college, 4G just debuted. What was the level of data traffic at that time? If you accidentally exceed the traffic for 5 yuan, 30M, 10 yuan, 70M, you don’t know how much it is. What is enough traffic? QQ alone may be in arrears. There was also a joke back then. It was said that using data to watch videos before going to bed at night, it would automatically broadcast after accidentally falling asleep, and the house would be owned by China Mobile as soon as I woke up. Although it is a joke, it truly reflects the embarrassment of ordinary people on the Internet. It is also the reason why I like to call China Mobile Unicom Telecom the “Three Big Rogues”. What happened later? Three orders and five applications of the State Council require operators to increase speed and reduce fees. The three major operators are all state-owned enterprises, and the production of state-owned enterprises depends on the will of the state, and the free market adjustment factors are not high. So the country’s demand for price cuts can really come down. Otherwise, with the monopoly status of these three companies, a few hundred yuan per person per month may not be enough for traffic charges. I started to realize the freedom of traffic when Unicom launched a 1 RMB 1G daily rental card that year. In the age of 5 yuan and 30M, I used to leave WiFi and turn off the data. Now I have the confidence to open it all day. Another interesting comparison is customer service. The position of customer service does not affect productivity, but directly affects user experience. Private companies in a monopoly position cannot hire too many customer services because they no longer need to care about the user experience, and users cannot find other better alternative products, such as Tencent. Although the three major operators have absolute monopoly positions, it is obviously easier to call 10086 to find manual customer service than Tencent customer service. This is the difference between private will and state will. 100G per capita is indeed possible in 10 years, because for the further prosperity of the mobile Internet, the will of the country will definitely require continued acceleration and price reduction until the traffic is comparable to Chinese cabbage. But there are also pessimistic negative factors, that is, capitalists may further increase the overtime and labor intensity of workers. Until 007 is complete, food and accommodation will be at the work station, causing the entire population to spend on online entertainment greatly shrinking. At that time, no matter how much traffic, no matter how cheap it is, it will not be used. At least there is currently no favorable conditions to fight capital oppression. Only God knows what will happen in 10 years.


By zhiwo

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6 months ago

There is basically no problem in reaching 100G after 10 years. Nowadays, many people are reluctant to use data to scan videos because of the high price of data, just like many people are reluctant to turn on the air conditioner in summer and winter because of the power saving. To be sure, in the future, people’s income will be higher and higher, and the price per g of traffic will be lower and lower. People will let go of video. The biggest impact should be that people will become more and more interesting when commuting to get off work and waiting in line, and not so boring. Because you can watch the video on your phone without worry. 100G is actually not much, an average of a little more than 3g per day. There will be no problem with using three or four Gs every day on the way to and from get off work in the future. Imagine that people in the subway are all watching videos and watching live broadcasts. If it is not 5G, the bandwidth is not enough.

6 months ago

There is a truth that productivity determines the relationship of production, so if it is changed, it can be said that practicality determines the upper limit of flow. At the moment, the reason why Chinese people can consume 9G data every month is obviously related to the large amount of time consumed by various APP applications. For example, according to the data, the average time for Chinese people to use Douyin last year reached 110 minutes/day, which is obviously a big data consumer. If you put it in 2010, let alone 9g, even 900M is difficult to use, because there is no need for this demand, then it is mainly based on graphics and text. In the same way, if you want to reach 100G per capita by 2030, the premise must be that people are willing to use it frequently in daily life and have extremely practical supporting software. Originally, when 5G was promoted in the first two years, many experts and scholars thought that a new era was coming. After I changed my mobile phone at the end of last year, I also changed my mobile phone package to 5G, but at least so far, I have not seen any essential difference between 5G and 4G in “daily life”. If this situation does not change significantly in the next 10 years, such as the lack of the impact of “online video refreshing” during the transition from 3G to 4G, then it may be quite difficult to achieve the 100GB target. Why is this so? I think in addition to some APP concepts that are not mature enough, one of the most fatal problems is that the mobile phone or tablet itself constitutes a constraint on the data upgrade, whether it is a full screen or a folding machine, but the use of mobile phones and tablets Compared with 10 years ago, there is no difference. And many years ago, when Jobs took out the original iPhone, it was epoch-making because it changed people’s definition of “Internet tool” at that time, and allowed a qualitative change in the way that originally used “fixed location to surf the Internet”. So people say that this marks the arrival of the mobile Internet era. Before 2030, can we see Internet tools that break away from the existing mobile phones and tablets, and have more “sci-fi” colors, enter the homes of ordinary people? For example, can the Internet chip be implanted in the brain, and you can enter the online world with your eyes closed? For example, a wearable network device with strong practicality, use your finger to surf the Internet in the void? For example, can the VR devices that have been hyped up in the past few years become more compact and convenient? When this point is reached, imagine the application scenario: just like “Sword Art Online”, you can enter the game world with your eyes closed, which will naturally consume massive amounts of data. Or is it possible to achieve face-to-face sex like in “Sword Art Online”? Or, as in “Sword Art Online,” normal social interaction, study, and work can all be “connected” in your mind with your eyes closed? Since the nature of the Internet is half politics and half sex, starting from the human instinct of “sex” to engage in research and development, I believe it will make developers more motivated and consumers more willing to pay. After all, the level of hunger and thirst among netizens has never been average, and I can help people come over if I change the profile picture of Wang Bingbing. Obviously, once the Internet access tool changes can be realized, not to mention 100G, unlimited traffic may come true. In this way, it is possible for us to make a world like “Ready Player One” a reality. But then again, at this stage, the methods of controlling people’s hearts through public opinion operations will only become more “rich”. After all, with human physiology, I am afraid that there is no way to distinguish between what is real and what is illusion. In the current mobile Internet era, there have been a large number of popular incident reversals that “there are pictures, videos and truth”. It can also be seen that because of the information cocoon effect, the voices we refute to the West’s rumors have never been transmitted to the Western world. In the future, there is no right to speak and take the initiative, let alone the West, your mother may not necessarily believe that you are her child. Whoever controls the Internet tools and applications can control human beings. As for whether to entertain human beings to death or to bleed endlessly, or to achieve human unity, it is just a matter of one thought. Judging from the current industry dynamics, you can see that Musk is already trying to do something similar: How do you think about Musk’s announcement of monkeys playing games with minds, saying that people who are paralyzed in the future can use minds to play mobile phones? What is the future of the brain-computer interface? Although many of his behaviors of cutting leeks are disgusting, and sometimes he feels like a lunatic, but sometimes technological breakthroughs are often done by lunatics. But the problem is that lunatics usually don’t pay attention to humanity and morality. If the future way of surfing the Internet is really determined by Musk…
Is it a good thing or a bad thing?

6 months ago

I now have an average monthly mobile traffic of 30G, and I have been reminded by the operator many times. Not to mention home broadband, and broadband for work. I no longer deliberately search for WiFi for all app updates. Videos are usually buffered and watched. Game updates are also used. Even mobile phones can be used as hotspots for laptops. It’s best to have WiFi, if you don’t have it, use a mobile hotspot. You want to put it 10 years ago, that is, the traffic was open overnight, and a set of commercial houses was gone. This shows that, at least for me, traffic is not so scarce. From 1G to 30G per month, the change for me is far less than the change from 100M to 1G for me (100M here is only mobile traffic). Unless through such technology, unexpected applications such as mobile payments, short videos, and takeaway taxis have emerged. I am in 2021, and I cannot make accurate predictions 10 years from now. This is an inevitable limitation, just as I look at the predictions of 4G networks nearly ten years ago. Mobile payments, QR codes, and phone calls have actually existed since the last century. But these three things were not connected at the time, but in 2014, we could take a taxi through the mobile phone network, and then use the QR code to make mobile payments. All of this is due to the large-scale popularization of 4G, and the traffic generated is only By-products. When our per capita traffic reaches 100G, the impact is definitely not on the traffic itself, but on the information carried on the traffic. For example, it is the same 5GB traffic, which may have carried several high-definition videos or web photos in the past, but now it carries diversified things such as taxi rides, takeaways, mobile payments, mobile games, and live broadcasts.

6 months ago

normal. Ten years later, even if 6G is not commercially available, it is at least the peak of 5G. At that time, the per capita network speed can reach at least 1Gbps, and the peak network speed of the high-end package is estimated to reach 10Gbps. At that time, 100GB of monthly traffic per capita is in the case of the popularization of gigabit broadband. If the price of gigabit broadband is not reduced or popularized, I am afraid 100GB will not be enough. Is 100GB a lot? There are only about 30 2 hours of 1080P movies, which is just one movie a day. Nowadays, mobile phones have many 2K screens. Ten years later, 4K folding screens are not impossible. Ordinary screens are at least 2K screens. At that time, 1080P movies were all introductory picture quality, and the most common thing was 2K picture quality or higher. Even when users have gigabit broadband in their homes, 100G is barely enough for heavy mobile phone users. Because at that time, a short video might have one or two hundred megabytes; a webpage might have dozens of megabytes; a photo might have more than ten megabytes, and the original image might even be tens of megabytes; applications also started at 100 megabytes, and hundreds of megabytes abound ; Online game applications have more than a dozen GBs, and large-scale stand-alone games have dozens of GBs. At that time, the 512GB ROM was just the beginning of the mobile phone. Then, under that kind of Internet environment, you can’t go home and use your mobile phone with WIFI, right?

6 months ago

A few days ago, I saw Huawei’s whole-house smart conference, and I suddenly sighed that the future will definitely be a world where everything is connected and smart dominates. So from the perspective of human beings as subjects, how can we expand our capabilities and make the world more comfortable? We can divide all the connected devices like this: perception, input (voice, keyboard), output (display, voice), intelligent analysis, and control (device). Various sensors, smart watches, thermometers, cameras, etc. will intelligently perceive our human body, surrounding environment, etc., or input our instructions through voice, keyboard, etc., and use artificial intelligence to analyze and predict, and optimize control The surrounding equipment, for example, he perceives my existence and perceives it is night, he knows that I like the color of the light and automatically turns it on for me. He knows today’s temperature, knows my preference for air conditioning temperature, and will automatically adjust to my most comfortable temperature. In the morning, the smart watch sensed that I got up and automatically opened the curtains. It perceives that I am brushing my teeth, knows that today is Wednesday, and will go to work after the meeting, and automatically turns on the air conditioner in the car and adjusts the temperature. At that time, smart cars have become popular, and autonomous driving has matured. If I am willing to enjoy the fun of driving, I can drive like a traditional one, but if I can catch up with the TV series I didn’t finish last night, I just go to the big screen of the car Up. Watch TV at ease and drive the car by yourself. When I return home, I will automatically guess my intentions on the road, and switch to the sound system at home, or the movie I watched, and I can automatically switch to the TV to continue watching. Some people may say, but I don’t want to Switch, but the smart watch perceives that you are already sitting on the sofa in front of the TV and put down the phone, and the sensor on the smart glasses perceives that you are looking at the TV, so it is unlikely to be wrong through smart analysis, and if you Without this series of actions, it will presume that you did not want to transfer the content to the TV. Of course, there are many, many, some of these things have been realized, and the others are actually very close to us, not far away. Finally, this package of several operators is a problem. It is always cautious to fear that it will be overused. Most of the time, WIFI is mainly used. As a result, one third of the traffic is not used up every month.

6 months ago

The effective information that a person can consume every day is actually limited. It is about 1.5 times the knowledge points you can master every day (because it covers other aspects of life). In this era, even if it is the most space-consuming video, it almost means that you need to watch it every day. Look for a long time. Will the logic of the traffic track evolve from the current high exposure to high competition? I don’t think so. The current trend of the traffic track is to control the distribution channels. This is not good news. In the future, richer network space and contacts may mean that competition in distribution channels will quickly reach an inward balance. But in short, no one would consider rolling in high-quality works—because the cost-effectiveness is too low. Make a bold speculation that future traffic competition will return to real channels. Neon lights all over the street? Outdated, all the display screens! There will be enough display screens stacked on the poles. As long as the place is energized, it will be full of display screens and VR equipment. Even if it is not powered, it may be flooded with battery devices. The glasses company will be the next Internet infrastructure company: in the future, all Internet companies will launch devices similar to Google glasses-with the function of myopia glasses by the way. The logic of offline channels is: this kind of bombing is inevitable, inefficient but effective. With the expansion of interactive screens, it will even be efficient. The most important thing is that offline competition is basically compliant and basically orderly. Online competition will only quickly determine the winner.

6 months ago

From telephone dial-up, to ISDN, to ADSL, to FTTH, from 2G to 5G, operators are building wider roads, and content providers are constantly building cars. It’s not surprising to see 100G per capita traffic predicted in ten years. The Internet has been growing according to Moore’s Law, and quantitative changes will inevitably lead to qualitative changes. The biggest change in recent years is the emergence and popularization of smart phones. It can be said to be a revolution. The next revolution is unknown, but it will definitely come.

6 months ago

Can I say that rising tides are just a matter of spending money~~. The average is a magical algorithm. The performance of the twenty-eight principle is too prominent. Everyone should have a deep experience of income being averaged. Therefore, experts say that the per capita traffic is 100G. If it is due to a small number of two, it will be passively increased. The effect is fine. What is certain is that when everyone generally reaches 100G, this per capita number will inevitably have to be turned upwards. However, even if it does not reach 100G, the increase in per capita traffic is the general trend. The first is the 5G network, the highlight of the new infrastructure. If the network is built, it must be used. Let alone the development of new business and new scenarios, the current business upgrades cannot be left behind. Take the Goose Factory video as an example. There are currently four formats for conventional source quality, with the lower limit being 270P and the upper limit being 1080P. Xiong looked for “XX Big Adventure”, which is being chased by Xiong, and read it, 270P 33M, 720P 99M, if the Internet speed is in place, starting at 480P, or even 720P, the traffic will not come out. In addition to the increase in existing businesses, new businesses are also being developed one after another. Every car you see is online, and the data interaction it generates is too huge in terms of the number of vehicles in the country. Moreover, there are a bunch of IoT devices lining up to connect to the Internet. When the tide rises, the ship will rise, the access network will be faster, the traffic base will be larger, and the data processing capacity and capacity of the core network will inevitably have to keep up. Servers and data centers, buy and buy, build and build, will drive how much GDP , And how many new jobs have been created, I like to hear and hear. For our users, the original monthly stream is less than 10G, and the 64G/128G mobile phone is very happy to use. In the future, the monthly stream will be 100G. I don’t believe you don’t dislike it. In short, as long as you upgrade, it will be income-generating. These are the country and the supply side, and I am happy to see the logic of the increase in traffic, but it also needs the cooperation of the stable fee policy to increase consumption without causing additional burdens on the end user. Note that this refers to the unit rate of traffic. . A chestnut shows that the bear has a monthly income of 5k, and can spend 20 yuan a month to buy 6G traffic. Next year, with a salary increase of 10k a month, I can spend 40 yuan to buy 12G traffic. However, this may be an ideal situation. The service provider may prefer nightwear. You spend 50 yuan to buy 50G traffic, and sell it as a respect. Anyway, it’s stuck in your psychological tolerance. It rises a little every year. After all, it has risen a lot. You may limit the current by yourself. If you don’t use it anymore, the gains outweigh the losses, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will target them. Therefore, Xiong expects that the absolute value of traffic consumption can rise, but the proportion of income should not be increased, it is better to be flat or decrease, so that the bear can open up to watch Blu-ray adventure.

6 months ago

Many in the group claim to have been ahead of China for 10 years, haha. Let’s review the country’s 10-year plan for Chang’e. Only advance, not postpone. The so-called 100G per capita refers to the per capita, and the per capita has reached 1.4 billion, and it is the greatest project in the world. It’s nothing like concurrency ratio or coverage. 100G per capita, that is, 3G per person per day, stable 100M wireless bandwidth, whether it is Guangzhou Railway Station or Beijing Road during the Spring Festival Transport Period, or Chengdu Chunxi Road, Chongqing Jiefangbei, or any rural area that is 4 hours away from the city by car. Starting from 100M. This is another great and arduous project. do you know? The network scale of a prefecture-level city in Guangdong may be equivalent to that of a European country. Only Guangzhou Mobile, Shenzhen Mobile, Dongguan Mobile, and Foshan Mobile’s network scales are larger than those of Germany as a whole. Other provinces and cities don’t know, at least Guangdong is still engaged in natural village coverage. The so-called natural village is about 20 permanent residents. It is necessary to lay several kilometers of optical cables and more than 100 poles (50 meters each), as well as the supporting equipment optical cable with 12 cores, which is about 10,000 yuan per kilometer. Calculating how many years the operator can recover the cost. Therefore, it is estimated that it is another 10-year journey in the communications industry. . Of course, Internet public opinion doesn’t think so. For Chinese operators, there are still a lot of scolding on the Internet.

6 months ago

too naive. I don’t watch short videos or TV dramas. I only use Weibo occasionally, I post on WeChat all the year round, and download novels every day, and the traffic is less than 10g a month. My mobile package is 18 yuan, 20m+60 minutes of call. Usually I spend 10 yuan at the beginning of the month to buy 6g. In the middle of the month, the rich man smokes a few grams and it’s ok. If I move in these two months, I want to cook me in warm water every month To send me 20g, I must stick to my heart, refuse sugar-coated shells, use more and use less. Mobile routines are usually: free traffic for the first three months, then 28 yuan for xxg traffic after three months, 48 yuan for xxg Three months of traffic. . . By analogy, getting higher and higher is sure I can’t easily change my phone. Everyone sings praises for speeding up and reducing fees. I’m still too young. The wool is on the sheep and the sheep is smashed and the wool has to be called: Thank you Lord Long

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