On April 10, Zhu Min, dean of the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University and former vice president of the IMF, stated at the 2021 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum that the average monthly flow of Chinese people is now 9GB, which is higher than 50% of OECD countries; 10 Years later, in 2030 (China) per capita traffic will probably reach 100GB/month.
In fact, a large part of the credit for the current per capita 9G traffic is that the country required the three major operators to “speed up and reduce fees.” The root of the booming mobile Internet in recent years is actually here. I remember when I was in college, 4G just debuted. What was the level of data traffic at that time? If you accidentally exceed the traffic for 5 yuan, 30M, 10 yuan, 70M, you don’t know how much it is. What is enough traffic? QQ alone may be in arrears. There was also a joke back then. It was said that using data to watch videos before going to bed at night, it would automatically broadcast after accidentally falling asleep, and the house would be owned by China Mobile as soon as I woke up. Although it is a joke, it truly reflects the embarrassment of ordinary people on the Internet. It is also the reason why I like to call China Mobile Unicom Telecom the “Three Big Rogues”. What happened later? Three orders and five applications of the State Council require operators to increase speed and reduce fees. The three major operators are all state-owned enterprises, and the production of state-owned enterprises depends on the will of the state, and the free market adjustment factors are not high. So the country’s demand for price cuts can really come down. Otherwise, with the monopoly status of these three companies, a few hundred yuan per person per month may not be enough for traffic charges. I started to realize the freedom of traffic when Unicom launched a 1 RMB 1G daily rental card that year. In the age of 5 yuan and 30M, I used to leave WiFi and turn off the data. Now I have the confidence to open it all day. Another interesting comparison is customer service. The position of customer service does not affect productivity, but directly affects user experience. Private companies in a monopoly position cannot hire too many customer services because they no longer need to care about the user experience, and users cannot find other better alternative products, such as Tencent. Although the three major operators have absolute monopoly positions, it is obviously easier to call 10086 to find manual customer service than Tencent customer service. This is the difference between private will and state will. 100G per capita is indeed possible in 10 years, because for the further prosperity of the mobile Internet, the will of the country will definitely require continued acceleration and price reduction until the traffic is comparable to Chinese cabbage. But there are also pessimistic negative factors, that is, capitalists may further increase the overtime and labor intensity of workers. Until 007 is complete, food and accommodation will be at the work station, causing the entire population to spend on online entertainment greatly shrinking. At that time, no matter how much traffic, no matter how cheap it is, it will not be used. At least there is currently no favorable conditions to fight capital oppression. Only God knows what will happen in 10 years.