The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the “Key Tasks for New-type Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2021” to orderly relax restrictions on urban settlements. Various cities should reasonably determine the conditions for settlement according to the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and the actual needs of economic and social development, adhere to the principle of stock priority, and promote agricultural transfer populations who have entered cities for more than 5 years of employment and life, family migration, and stable employment and life in cities and towns. Key groups such as migrant workers, rural students entering schools, and those who joined the army and marched into cities have settled down conveniently. Cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million in urban areas have implemented the complete cancellation of settlement restrictions. Cities that implement the point settlement policy ensure that the social security payment period and the residence period score account for the main proportion. The urban settlement policy should treat renters and purchasers equally, and allow the permanent residents of renters to settle in public households.

If a person does not have a basic and clear framework to judge the overall situation, he will be surprised at some small news. Regarding the liberalization of the threshold for settlement, I had already made a prediction as early as 18 years. I was not optimistic about real estate and also considered this factor. National conferences and policy documents have long planned the process of liberalizing household registration. This news is not worth making a fuss at all. The permanent population is less than 3 million, and it is only a small city with a third-tier and below! It is basically useless to let go of the threshold. The so-called influence is nothing more than the “influence of real estate agency propaganda”, whose purpose is to inflict anxiety and speed up the sale of houses. At present, apart from the absolute threshold for Beijing hukou, Shanghai hukou is slightly more difficult (in fact, Shanghai also accelerated the liberalization of the hukou threshold last year, and four Shanghai 985 undergraduates settled randomly), and the hukou thresholds in other cities can no longer be considered thresholds. Let’s take a look at what I have said about the liberalization of household registration in the past few years: Event: On April 8, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a clear document to continue to intensify the reform of the household registration system. The urban permanent population of 1 to 3 million type II large Cities should completely abolish the restrictions on settlement; Type I large cities with a permanent population of 3 to 5 million in urban areas must fully open up the conditions for settlement, and completely abolish the restrictions on settlement of key groups. Analysis: For urban development, population is the core competitiveness, and the number of people will become stronger in the future. This is why Hangzhou, Xi’an and other places have joined the robbing battle. These cities basically lowered the threshold to “zero” in order to grab people. (For details, see the article: Letting go of the settlement restrictions, what about?) Hangzhou and Xi’an are so much robbed of people, how can other fourth- and fifth-tier cities live? The robbing of people in these cities is a dimensionality reduction attack for the fourth- and fifth-tier cities, because they are crushing in terms of science, education, culture and health. I said earlier that “it’s not impossible for backward areas to send houses to attract talents.” You see, Hegang has already started sending houses and cars in order to attract the population. The above content is excerpted from the official account: Wukong Xinnosuke’s April 2019 article “Housing Price: After Hegang, how many Hegang is still on the road?” 》Nowadays, many people are worried about owning a hukou in a certain city, but for the future hukou system, my judgment is: there will be no difficulties in setting up a hukou in the future, and the final mode of the future is to settle down at will, without hukou barriers. . Of course, the two cities going north may be released later. But you must not be wrong about what I mean. In the future, even if people can choose cities to settle in at will, the vast majority of people still have no choice. This choice is not because of the household registration system, but because of their own viability. If you want to settle in Beijing or Shanghai, but your own ability is not up to the passing line of survival in this city, you don’t need to “drive you away”, you will leave this city and return to other places. It is not the rules and regulations that will prevent people from settling in the future, but their own viability! The above content is excerpted from the public account: Wukong Shinnosuke’s September 2019 article “Real Estate Miscellaneous Talks, Views on Some Key Issues” In the past, some cities still used household registration to attract talents to settle down, but at present, except for the imperial capital and the magic capital, the threshold for settlement in other cities is almost Is zero. Especially after the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the “Opinions on the Reform of the System and Mechanism to Promote the Social Mobility of Labor and Talents”, they completely ripped off some cities that used “convenience to settle down” to fool young people to work and settle. Golden signboard. Hukou is no longer a high-quality bargaining chip that can attract talents to settle down and buy houses. If you want to attract young people to settle down and buy houses, you must come up with more attractive bargaining chips. Combining the advanced experience of developed countries, our country will mainly rely on consumption to drive economic development in the future, but the sharp decline and aging of the population will seriously affect my country’s consumption capacity. The sharp decline and aging of the population will compress China’s consumer market! Corresponding to the city, if there are not enough consumer groups, especially the young people with the most spending power, it will seriously affect the future economic and social development. For the future urban competition, it is not so much a competition of talents as it is a competition of population. Someone has a future, and no one will quit the stage. Based on the fact that the population is about to drop sharply and the aging is increasing, I have a view: cities below the second tier should immediately grab people to buy houses and settle down at no cost, because the future urban competition is actually the competition of the number of permanent residents in the city, what you have The more people and young people there are, the stronger the consumption power, the more fiscal revenue, and the better economic and social development. Now that the first- and second-tier cities have not fully liberalized their policies, they must first act first, and wait until the first- and second-tier cities are open to grab people. You don’t even talk about soup, you don’t even have scum. Among them, the most important thing I said regardless of the cost is the house. Anyway, the house price will fall back sooner or later. It is better to take the house to give warmth and gain a good reputation. At present, the bargaining chips from all over the world are not enough to look back after two years! The above content is excerpted from the public account: Wukong Shinnosuke’s February 2020 article “Real estate talks, a comprehensive upgrade of urban grabbing battles” For future cities, no, for future Chinese cities, young people are talents and high-consumption young people are Super talent. Twenty years later, people who can breathe are talents. I even think that in extreme cases, dead people are talents to attract. For satellite cities with no industries, they can build a funeral industry with cheap land resources, because the future of big cities The situation is likely to face a situation that cannot afford to die. For example, in Hong Kong, this is the origin of the “coffin”! The above content is excerpted from the public account: Wukong Xinnosuke’s September 2020 article “You don’t need to buy a house in Hegang, the latest meaning of talents” The above is my understanding of the battle against people, lowering the threshold for settlement and talents. Now I am not surprised by a lot of news, why? Because I have a clear judgment on the overall situation for a long time, whether it is an aging population, real estate taxes, official promotion of price reductions, companies trying to reduce prices to withdraw funds, unfinished buildings, robbing people, etc., have already been pre-judged. The reality is that my prediction is right, nothing more! From my personal point of view, everyone must have a basic judgment about everything, otherwise, “salesman’s words” are not for dry food. People who don’t have basic judgments think that the salesperson’s language is reasonable, and he can’t tell whether what he or she says is true and what is false, and it’s even harder to tell whether he/she is talking about the subtleties or the core issues of things. As small as going to the mall to buy things, as large as buying a house and investing large amounts of money, if you don’t have your own judgment, then the risks follow. In this world, there are not many people with high morals. How can you guarantee that the person you believe is really nice to you? At this moment, you have to look at my content dialectically, I am not a saint, what should I do if you believe me wrong? ! It’s not news for a long time to open up and settle down. Fuzhou and Suzhou had policies promulgated early last year. The hot news in Fuzhou at the end of last year was “Workers and Housing”, and the price was much lower than the market price (the total housing price dropped by 1 million). In fact, the so-called “commercial housing” means that the developer conducts housing promotion and sale at a discount in order to withdraw funds and pay for the construction team. In fact, it is not just a way for real estate developers to cut prices and promote the withdrawal of funds in order to withdraw funds. At the end of last year, Suzhou also lifted the threshold for settlement. The settlement of rented houses in Suzhou is also in line with the spirit of the Central Economic Conference. “Gradually make rent-purchasing houses have equal rights in enjoying public services”, that is, the same right of rent-purchase! For details, please refer to the old article-“Interpretation of Economic Work Conference: Real Estate Curtain Calling, The Leasing Era is Coming! “. If you understand the three main contradictions in real estate that I have summarized, these news are not worth fussing about. Remember the three main contradictions I have summarized. Your judgment on real estate is an open-book test! The main contradictions of my country’s real estate are summarized as follows (the latest succinct edition): The short-term main contradiction of the real estate industry lies in the contradiction between the eagerness of real estate companies to raise funds, the return of funds, and the state’s comprehensive prevention of funds from flowing into real estate. The main contradiction in the real estate industry in the medium term lies in the contradiction between the slowdown of the real estate industry and China’s economic development, the contradiction between the industrial transformation and upgrading and the strategy of expanding domestic demand. The main long-term contradiction in the real estate industry lies in the contradiction that the aging population and the decline in fertility have caused the lack of successors and the lack of a source of support for real estate development. Important reminder: Please refer to the personal official account: Wukong Xinzhisuke for details of the 4D analysis of China’s real estate. Considering all aspects of China’s population, economy, policies, and the world’s structure, it may be the most comprehensive real estate analysis article in China. I know that it’s still not very friendly. Recently, a new round of deletion and inspection activities has been launched, which brings everyone Please forgive me for the inconvenience! I am currently updating the series of articles on the official account [Chinese city housing prices]. I currently write about Shenzhen, Wuhan, Tianjin, Xi’an, Xiamen, Qingdao, Changsha, Chengdu, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Jinan, Kunming, Nanning… (except for Beijing, where the second-tier cities and above are basically covered), the next step will be to analyze the real estate trends in typical Chinese cities.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

Sooner or later, the household registration system will be relaxed or even completely abolished. The birth of China’s household registration system has historical reasons, so I won’t repeat it. However, with the development of the economy, especially the increase in the flow of personnel, the disadvantages brought about by the household registration system have become more and more obvious. For example, if your household registration is in city A, you get married and work in city B, and you do not have a household registration in city B, which will bring about a series of problems such as children’s education and social security. In the early years, even ID cards, passports, etc. had to go back to the place of household registration. In addition to bringing problems such as education and social security, it will also severely weaken the sense of belonging to the city. In fact, the relaxation of the household registration system has been going on in the past few years. Up to now, with the exception of Beijing and Shanghai, which have strict household registration restrictions, almost all other cities have much looser restrictions on settlement (including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other big cities). However, this kind of relaxation is relative, and there are almost no restrictions for those with a certain degree (undergraduate or junior college), stable jobs and social security. But for some low-end laborers, such as typical migrant workers, it is still very difficult to settle in the city where they work. And these low-end labors, obviously, almost all have the idea of ​​returning to their hometown after earning enough money. The direction of the reform is to allow these low-end laborers to settle down in the city where they work. Their children no longer need to be left-behind children, but can receive education on an equal footing where their parents work. Of course, with the decline in the birth rate and the reduction in the number of laborers, the population shortage will become more and more serious. In the past, it was to drive people away, but in the future, it was trying to attract people. The same is true even for low-end labor. After all, no matter how developed a city is, you will need workers on construction sites, courier and takeaway guys, and waiters in restaurants. As for Beijing and Shanghai, the situation is relatively special, and it is expected that the household registration restrictions will continue for a long time. But even in Shanghai, the settlement policy has been relaxed a lot in recent years.

7 months ago

Answer it as a left-behind child’s point of view. The survival of the household registration system has both advantages and disadvantages. Let me talk about the benefits first. In China, the most intuitive thing is that there are no slums like Latin American countries and regions. To a certain extent, anyone who can settle down in the city can be accepted as an urban population. And the household registration is bound to a city such as social security medical resources. Large cities can be managed in a more orderly and convenient manner, so that resource problems such as water, electricity, and medical resources will not collapse due to short-term population gathering. However, the other side of the disadvantage is also very obvious, that is, most people live in the city, and these people are mainly young and middle-aged. Like me, I went to school in my hometown since I was young, while my parents’ generation worked in cities. Left in the countryside are mostly left-behind children and widowed elderly. Like me, there are not many people who can go to college. Most of them drop out of school to work after graduating from high school. Those who can go to college are people whose parents have some money. After all, college or three-book tuition is not cheap. Finally, like me, after college and graduate school, they all return to their parents, and they are also used as fuel for first-tier cities. It has nothing to do with the city in which it is located. Seeing a doctor is all at your own expense. Finally, the liberalization of household registration is both a good thing and a bad thing. Because of the liberalization of household registration, the more there are no restrictions, the more resources in first-tier cities will be scarce. After all, most people do not enjoy urban welfare and only rely on living in big cities. If it is liberalized and incorporated into the development of the city, there will be a shortage of medical care and education. Finally, even if there is no household registration system, there will be other things blocking you. It can be housing prices or social security. So don’t imagine letting go can change everything. Shanghai has introduced a little talent introduction policy, and housing prices have skyrocketed. If a city like Beijing can settle down with a bachelor’s degree, I believe that housing prices will double soon, and the school district’s housing will be 300,000 per square meter. At that time, do you think it’s better to let it go or not to let it go?

7 months ago

The urban-rural dual-track system was the reason why farmers used to go to the city. People did not move freely. The difference between farmers and citizens was the difference between the agricultural population and the industrial population. Food subsidy industry. I don’t want to be a farmer, I want to go to the city, I want to be a glorious worker. Since the beginning of the reform, the rapid urbanization, the movement of people has become more and more free, and the new population brought about by urbanization has come to an end. The very real problem is that cities cannot hold so many jobs, or that everyone who enters the city can work until retirement. The means of production (land) in the countryside is the escape and guarantee for many people, and the last line of defense. Except those Gobi deserts in the northwest. In the small county town of the 18th line in the interior, it is estimated that the farmers who give houses will not be willing to give up the means of production and enter the city. At least I, the third generation of farmers in 1993, can’t afford a house in the capital of a big city, or abandon their hometown and settling in the county is extremely cost-effective. There is a high probability that I will return to the countryside to provide for the elderly. My land and my field divided by the village collectively, although it is a hilly area, is also a means of production. Water, electricity, electricity and transportation are good, so why bother to enter the city? This policy is useless.

7 months ago

Look at this issue in reverse. The expansion of attractive places is limited, and random visitors are not welcome. It is best to live with closed doors. This is the bus crowding effect, where you get on the bus first and get on the bus after you get on the bus. However, places with few people are unattractive. The net population outflow, even if the balance is largely due to the inflow population supplementing the outflow population, this balance is very fragile. One depends on the speed of the outflow, especially the number of young people, and the other is the region. The population base within the country, such as the inflow of rural population to cities and towns, so the entire area is actually a net outflow! There must be someone to open the household registration first, and then the person can be retained.

7 months ago

Apart from going north, it is no longer difficult to settle in other cities. Guangzhou has six months of undergraduate social security and one month for master’s social security. The threshold is almost 0, but it is almost meaningless to enter this household if you can’t afford a house. The benefits of household entry are nothing more than medical education for the elderly. For employment, apart from going north, almost no company requires you to register locally. Medical treatment, social insurance for employees, non-local hukou has no effect. Education, how good is the quality of schools for public collective households? Retirement, that is a matter of decades later.

7 months ago

For most users of Zhihu, this is a useless policy, but it is still useful for countless real workers at the bottom. For example, Shenzhen needs an undergraduate to settle down, which is really easy for undergraduates. How many people in China have a bachelor degree or above? Of course, Shenzhen is not less than 3 million. I just give an example. For most of the workers in less developed cities, removing the residence restriction will be very convenient for individuals and families. According to the “Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction in 2019” published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, a reporter from China Business News found that there are currently 30 cities with a total population of more than 3 million people. Among the cities below 3 million, there are currently 8 provincial capital cities including Guiyang, Nanchang, Lanzhou, and Hohhot, and strong economic cities such as Wuxi, Wenzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai. These places also have a large number of permanent residents from outside, so the complete removal of the settlement restrictions will help accelerate the urbanization of these places.

7 months ago

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the “Key Tasks for New Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2021”, which stated that cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million in urban areas will implement a comprehensive cancellation of settlement restrictions. This means that in most cities in China, household registration Will no longer be an obstacle to the free movement of people. For urban development, relaxing the urban settlement policy is only the first step, and the key is to make up for the shortcomings of urban public services. At a time when the population is becoming increasingly aging, if cities want to win the “grabbing war”, they must find ways to make up for shortcomings, make hard work, and seek “hidden achievements” in public services such as education, medical care, employment, and elderly care. The plane tree is planted, and the golden phoenix is attracted. The foundation of urban development is human development. Only by enabling the “new citizens” to enjoy equal access to high-quality public services can they win the favor of talents and win the long-term future.

7 months ago

The rich depend on fate, the rich depend on luck, and the small rich depend on diligence. People born in the 1980s and 1990s should have heard of a NetEase game “Fantasy Westward Journey”. Since it was released in 2003, it is still in operation, but the players have basically been lost, and the people who are still playing now are basically rich people or studios. Why is this, because as long as the game is planning an expansion, your early investment will instantly be worthless. From the point of view of the Fa pet alone, the initial core skill is only the high-level Demon Heart. As long as the Fa pet has this skill, the best baby is very valuable. However, every subsequent expansion will update new skills, advanced spell combos, advanced spell critical strikes, advanced fluctuations, to the latest Sumi Mantra, which means that after the update, your best baby has no new skills, and the value is instantly cut down. Be eliminated. In the end, most civilian players will choose not to play because the cost is too high. At least I am like this, Ding Sanshi, you could have earned six cents per hour from me. When I saw various announcements and plans, I suddenly felt that the real world is also a game world. In a word of planning, most of the time, ordinary people’s hard-earned money for decades immediately depreciated and they couldn’t buy what they wanted. . Of course, there are very few people who can make a fortune by relying on the spring breeze of the policy. Everyone knows who these people are. What about ordinary people, just like Fantasy Westward Journey, they choose not to play with you. It’s a game played by the rich. Buddhism is chanting, mourning chanting, lying flat and doing exercises. One person is full and the whole family is not hungry.

7 months ago

The household registration restrictions are gradually liberalized, and the relaxation does not mean that the threshold for household registration is zero. A city’s public services (education, medical, transportation, etc.) meet the current needs to a certain extent, and it is impossible to plan ahead indefinitely. Take education in Zhuhai, Zhongshan as an example. The influx of large numbers of non-local populations in the past two years has put a huge pressure on educational resources. In order to relieve the shortage of degrees, the government has made a lot of financial investment in education: large-scale construction of schools, incorporation of private schools, Purchasing degrees from private schools, etc., in order to protect the most basic right to receive compulsory education for children with migrants. I believe that the government will formulate a more detailed, more reasonable, efficient and convenient method for the approval of the introduction of talents in accordance with its own urban development needs, rather than an instant full-scale opening.

7 months ago

Morgan Stanley’s “China Consumption 2030” report believes that in the future one-fifth of the urban population will have a net inflow, that is to say, four-fifths of the urban population will have a net outflow (the maximum population will remain basically unchanged), and this fifth The fourth is obviously basically cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million. So the policy of lifting the implementation restrictions is obviously to counter this trend and attract population to avoid the decline of these cities.

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