Several core problems of the middle-income trap: 1) The disappearance of cheap labor dividends and the increase in potential costs have led to the migration of the low-end industrial chain; 2) The low-end industrialization process is too fast but lacks the competitiveness of core technologies; 3) Unequal distribution accumulates social problems. The problem of uneven distribution when low-end manufacturing continues to expand the cake will be covered up. Once the industrial chain moves out, it will burst out instantly; 4) The middle-income trap relies heavily on international capital and prefers to put the middle and low-end Where is the industrial chain? Even so, many countries do not even have opportunities for middle-income development due to various reasons, such as social stability, education level of residents, and industrial foundation, and will not fall into the middle-income trap. The early stage of the middle-income trap is an opportunity for a backward country. This is also the reason why Southeast Asia is rushing to undertake the low-end industrial chain. However, the transformation of economic structure and the breakthrough of technical barriers are difficult for most economies to break through. This is also rare. Some developing countries have crossed the middle-income trap, which has become the reason for developed countries. In addition, the distribution problem is often unsolvable. Per capita income does not represent the income of the general public. Once the labor time is tapped and the low-end industry is combined, the pie cannot continue to be big. Ordinary people’s salary Can not keep up with prices, social conflicts intensify, along with the relocation of the low-end industrial chain, after which they will fall into the middle-income trap. This also gives us a warning. In the past, we undertook a large number of middle and low-end industrial chains for development opportunities, combined with compulsory education and national industrious characteristics, and provided the world’s largest and most cost-effective labor force. This is a golden mountain for any capital. . However, the low-end manufacturing and large assembly volume does not mean that the middle-income trap can be avoided. This is also the reason why the economic structure transformation and the breakthrough of technical barriers are imminent in recent years. It is difficult to tap labor time and weaken labor protection to reduce labor costs. If you continue to make the cake bigger, it is difficult to conceal the distribution problem. No matter how fast the house rises, it will not solve the problem. On the contrary, it will exacerbate the gap between the rich and the poor and the uneven distribution. In many media, it is a good thing to move out of the low-end industrial chain, but It should also be noted that the premise is that there is an alternative high-value-added industrial chain as the new economic growth support.


By zhiwo

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6 months ago

It was released on March 26, not April 14. If you read this article, you can know that “too many liberal arts students” is not the main point of the article at all. The main point of the article is that China’s population aging problem is very serious, and it is necessary to strengthen policy measures to deal with it from now on. The views and policy recommendations of this article can be said to be shocking. If you insist on picking up something wrong, you can find that there is a kind of arrogance of “the herdsman of the emperor” between the lines of the article. For example, “Some people worry that liberalizing childbirth will lead to more births for the low-income population. In fact, ordinary workers are the most lacking in China. The language is also more casual, such as “Dad poke one, mother poke one nest”. It can be seen that it should be written by an older person. The academic training of young people will not allow them to write such words. The writer writes more casually, and other authors are not ashamed to change it for him, that’s it.

6 months ago

Liberal arts students are purely blocking the knife. I dare say that most people discussing this paper on the Internet have just read a few news and a few screenshots, and not many have really finished reading it. The focus of this paper is on the “Responding Strategies” in the fifth part of the last section. Four points are clearly written: First, full liberalization and vigorously encourage fertility. The second is to attach importance to savings and investment. It mentions being highly vigilant about the tendency of the savings rate to fall too fast, and that consumption is never the source of growth (an alarming sign). The third is to promote the reform of the pension system. Among them, it is mentioned that the old-age care has changed from an instant payment type to a savings type, distinguishing basic insurance and personal accounts, and transforming and merging as soon as possible. The fourth is to promote education and technological progress. It clearly mentioned controlling housing prices (by name and criticizing Shenzhen), and then brought a sentence that emphasized science education. Here: the first basic consensus; the second warning blow; the third singing the opposite stage; the fourth directly hitting the face. The level of the central bank’s cadre knowledge reserve is higher than that of the network key government, and the most important thing is that it must be politically literate. On the contrary, the content of the article is of secondary importance, and the timing signal transmitted by the article is the main purpose. The Bureau of Statistics said at the beginning of the year that it will release the 7 Census data in early April, and yesterday was the last day of the first half of April. At this point in time, your taste, your fine taste. After the article was published, the hot discussion was not about saving savings, pension reform, nor house price control signals, but about science education with only one sentence in the article, and public opinion instantly turned into a conflict between liberal arts and science. To guide the public opinion to grasp a detail overwhelmingly antagonistic, the routine is very familiar. Therefore, it doesn’t matter who the liberal arts and physiology students are more useful, all they need is the volume of the opposition, just cover something.

6 months ago

I really read this paper. To be honest, I really like it, even though I am a liberal arts student. This essay is simple in writing, but daring to speak up. It is quite deafening in the academic and political circles that have always paid attention to stability. This report is relatively long, and the core meaning is one: let go of fertility quickly, encourage fertility, and don’t hesitate anymore, so as not to miss the final window period. This must be praised! Compared with the population problem, if it attacks liberal arts students and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong model, it is all tickle, not a problem. I suspect that the author team of the article is composed of science students, so at the end of the article, I suddenly came to engage liberal arts students, hahaha. As a liberal arts teacher in an engineering university, I offer a new way of understanding this: the number of people in pure liberal arts should not be more than that of science and engineering. To put it bluntly, we must be pragmatic and not fool the country by empty talk. In other words, there should not be more people engaged in ideology, social culture, history, and finance than those engaged in scientific and technological work. Correspondingly, we must adhere to the manufacturing industry and the real economy to establish the country. However, having said that, we must not belittle the value and significance of liberal arts because of this. The liberal arts is the ideological front, the spiritual destination of the individual, the cohesion of the nation, and the fair mechanism of the society… But the value of the liberal arts is not completely equal to the value of the liberal arts students. (The authors of the central bank are quick to thank my analysis.) What I mean is that there are really not too many liberal arts students, but liberal arts education needs to be greatly popularized, so all science and engineering universities should vigorously promote general education. Therefore, I personally hope that universities across the country, especially applied universities, will establish a strong liberal arts department and uniformly arrange general education courses. Above (I inexplicably like this inexplicable and cool ending method)

6 months ago

It’s a bit surprised, this is a paper, but how is it a working paper? Nor is it to solve the problem of “bank work”. After reading the paper, I was very tired! Hundreds of times more tired than answering questions by myself. Although I was exhausted after reading it, I was so tired, but it was all over. Looking back at other people’s questions: “How do you understand the central bank working paper published on the 14th that one of the reasons why Southeast Asian countries fall into the middle-income trap” is “too many liberal arts students”? “I think we should consider two points in order not to digress. First, how to understand the “population issue and Southeast Asia middle-income trap mentioned in the central bank’s work paper”. Second, how to understand “Southeast Asian countries fall into the middle-income trap”. One of the reasons is “too many liberal arts students.” The first question, I have already said, I am puzzled. Or, I have a misunderstanding about banking. The second question feels very abrupt. Whether the market needs liberal arts students or science students is directly reflected in the laws of the market. Isn’t it just literary and rational? To use this argument, we have to make it look very powerful. Is it better to use supporting arguments? Talking about other things, it feels like a digression.

6 months ago

After a closer look, I think this paper is actually well written, and the focus is not on major innovations and discoveries, or advanced solutions. But through its influence-including the influence of the central bank itself and the fermentation of this event, some very precise reality and future are put in front of people (and some people want to see but are too lazy to go. I hope that those ostriches who bury their heads in the sand who read this article can lift their heads from the illusion of winning, and fully understand these imminent future events that individuals cannot change and can only adapt to. . People in the circle may think that this is a fact of being said to be rotten, but according to personal experience in Zhihu, there are still many people who despise this future, and people continue to join the queue because of being deceived. And in view of the limited decision-making power of the national central bank, the solution mentioned in the article is just a study. Regarding the part of liberal arts students, regardless of whether it is correct or not, I think central bank scholars should know to treat Southeast Asian countries separately. Let’s analyze it in at least three parts. I remember that in the past few years, the paper analyzed the different development models of Southeast Asian countries. After all, the Singapore model is very different from the Philippine model, and the last time I saw the mistake of “taking Southeast Asia as a whole” was made, I knew it. . . I found this article: Shen Hongfang. Research on Economic Development Models of Major Developing Economies in East Asia [D]. Xiamen University, 2006. In general, my suggestion is not to focus on liberal arts, but to read it. Read the full text.

6 months ago

But you still want to hear the harm I spit on liberal arts students. Throw it up, idle is idle. In a word, the result is the cause, and the logic is wrong. Take the Philippines, which has the most surplus of higher education in Southeast Asia and I am more familiar with (I have written many times on Zhihu): First, I was a colony of American imperialism, and the environment was generally peaceful during the Cold War. As a result, primary industrialization was realized in the 1950s, and the economic prosperity was second only to Japan in that year, and the GDP per capita was second in Asia; second, language advantage. Tagalog is mixed with a large number of English words, and English is the lingua franca of the mass media in the Philippines, and the threshold for receiving American education resources is low; third, the American emperor was too young and simple, and sincerely wanted to build the Philippines into a model colony (a young empire’s Common ailments, like old prostitutes to teach sentient beings), fanatical to increase investment in higher education in the Philippines; 3.5, dictator Marcos gave the Philippines a period of 20 years of political stability. As a result, the Philippines had 1,178 public and private colleges and universities in 1985. China has only 2,956 universities today, and India dares to open universities with a sign, which is about 8,400. In 1985, the population of the Philippines was only 54 million. According to this ratio, China could open 30,000 colleges and universities, and India could open 80,000. A lot of people dream of universalizing the undergraduate ratio, or regard the number of college students as a symbol of “advanced”. The Philippines was old and advanced. then? Then encountering China’s reform, Southeast Asia took over half of the manufacturing transfer from Europe, America and Japan, and began to transfer to China on a large scale. Halfway through the industrialization was interrupted, and finally saved some money, and then used it to speculate in real estate and stocks and foreign exchange. In 1997, he was cut by Soros again. The half-dwarf industrial system in the Philippines is unable to provide effective employment for huge graduates of college graduates. As serious as 40% of higher education graduates, they are unemployed after graduation (October 2006 data). Not short-term unemployment, but long-term unemployment. In an economic downturn, the dropout rate can reach 73% (June 2004). Why were the Filipinos in the northern Philippines and the Moro in the southern Philippines so active ten years ago? Young people can’t mix in Manila. Instead of staying in a slum, it is better to go north to join the Filipino Communist Party as a forest owner, or go south to join the Moro (if it is difficult, you have to change your faith) as a mine owner and collect some passing money. With such a method, the investment in advanced higher education in the previous 40 years is equal to all Mu University. In order to recover the cost, it is not necessary to “reducing dimensionality and cracking down”, so that all teachers who study business and normal engineering will go overseas to work as Filipino domestic helpers. This has created the world’s most high-quality domestic workers: a monthly fee of 5,000 (RMB), only one day off a week (going to church), English thief (especially normal students), no housework and no children problem. Hong Kong people say yes to them, but it is a pity that the mainland has banned the introduction in order to protect employment. Severely de-industrialized environment, how do you let the country invest in the training of science and engineering students? Especially for the Philippines, which is heavily in debt, the national debt is nearly 200 billion U.S. dollars, and the annual trade deficit is more than 30 billion U.S. dollars. Parents are not willing. If your child is studying science and engineering, unless he is very good, he might as well work in Dubai or work in a big hotel in Manila. The country’s industrialization is too rudimentary to provide much competitive salary. Once the process of de-industrialization starts, unless there is a strong political consensus and external intervention, the country is destined to be trapped in a place where raw materials are produced and where goods are dumped. Because of the cost of industrialization, it is too expensive. Southeast Asia is caught in the middle-income trap (in fact, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand). This is the joint effect of the entire geopolitics, the relationship between the Cold War and post-Cold War countries, the reshaping of the global industrial system by China’s reform, and the influence of each country’s own ethnic and colonial factors on the political system. You let young people in the Philippines only study science and engineering. After graduation, most of them will still be Filipino domestic helpers and service industries? Retreat from reality, why bother. And we don’t ridicule Southeast Asia, don’t focus on liberal arts students, because we have already shown signs of de-industrialization. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we are calling for “maintaining the basic stability of the manufacturing sector.” As for the status quo, you can ask fat friends in science and engineering. Don’t stare at C9 and ask, ask those fat friends from the second college, and ask how many of them will continue to work in this major. Where is the grass, where does the sheep go? Why are they always squeezing the wool while waving the whip to force the sheep to gnaw the grass.

6 months ago

1. I saw that some of the WeChat Moments and official accounts that I followed were transferring the work report of the central bank, and the topic was about population. I thought it was the central bank’s prediction and response measures for the long-term interest rate structure changes when the population grew negative for a long time in the future. On the one hand, it leads the society and academia to have some discussions, and the more the argument becomes clearer; on the other hand, the current monetary policy is not clear. According to past experience, it is to create a long-term anchor. For example, it used to be a globalization of imports and exports. The people’s increasing demand for… (PSL shed reform), and then later became matched with the economic growth rate, and then later became matched with the economic growth rate under the potential total factor productivity (that is, although the GDP is 6%, the M2 It is 10%. This is a match. Why? Because some of our production factors have not been played out. If they are all played out, it will be 10%). Open it and look, good guy, the title is population, and the content is also population. . . Open Zhihu, the better guy, you are discussing the issue of liberal arts students, and the depth of your discussion is really breathtaking. Let me just say a little bit about it, and let’s not talk about such esoteric topics as liberal arts students. 2. Although the central bank does not care about the population, the status of the central bank, what he said, is likely to represent the direction of work. Similar to the past, when the financial department talked about population or real estate, they were not actually in charge of them, but they had a high status. 3. So, you don’t need to look at the process of Yang Ma, just look at the conclusion. Is there any good comment? Why do you think the central bank is arguing with you? First look at the conclusion, then compare the conclusion to find his argument, and see how his argument evaluates this part of the element. You probably know what his true attitude towards this element is. Especially for both the need and the need, but also more. What is needed, who is the first and who is the first, this should be returned to the main text. (1) The coping method is not quoted. The main idea is that time is not waiting for me, and when I am not going to be born at this time, we must use the determination, courage and perseverance to grasp the historical opportunity and grasp the historical trend with the strength of the enemy and the invincibility. To live, to be able to live, to want to live. (2) Countermeasures Aging means net consumption, and declining birthrate means no output. The natural response is to save. Liberalization and encouragement of fertility are the savings of labor; savings and investment are savings of capital and productivity; perfecting the pension system is savings of wealth; education and technological progress are savings of productivity. One is to fully liberalize and vigorously encourage childbirth. The birth rate depends on the proportion of women of childbearing age and the fertility rate. The former is affected by historical demographic conditions and it is difficult to change; the latter is affected by the current women’s awareness, and the improvement takes effect relatively quickly. On the one hand, we must fully liberalize childbirth (three births and above). Don’t hesitate to wait and see the effects of the existing policies. Let them take advantage of the fact that some residents want to live but don’t let them live. When everyone no longer wants to let them go, it will be useless. On the other hand, fertility is strongly encouraged. It is necessary to create a good reproductive environment, and effectively solve the difficulties women encounter in pregnancy, childbirth, nursery school, and school, so that women dare, be able to give birth, and want to give birth; advocating childbirth is not only a matter for parents and families, but also for the country and society responsibility. The first and most important thing is to increase the willingness to have children. In fact, everyone thinks so, right? That’s right. A small number of people may say that this is not just a slapstick, you can’t say that, because…Yes, you can’t say that. The second is to attach importance to savings and investment. First of all, we must be highly vigilant and prevent the savings rate from falling too quickly. It must be clear that our country not only shoulders the heavy responsibility of development, but also faces a heavy burden of pensions, and understands how to grow without accumulation. Second, we must recognize that consumption is never the source of growth. It is necessary to understand that it is easy to change from frugality to luxury, and it is difficult to change from luxury to frugality; it is necessary to understand that there are historical reasons for the high consumption rate in developed countries, and they are trying to change but are unable to recover. Therefore, do not use this as an example to learn from. Third, we must attach importance to investment. In order to expand investment in the central and western regions of China, although my country’s overall marginal return on capital continues to decline, there is still much to be done in the central and western regions of machine substitution; it is necessary to expand overseas investment, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America, because these regions provide a large amount of Deposited demographic dividend. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! (It simply means the dividing line, not exclamation, no other meaning) (The content of this paper by the central bank is quoted in the brackets: 1 From the perspective of structural adjustment of economic aggregate demand, the transformation of economic development mode is to enhance consumption demand and economic growth To increase investment, we must increase savings; if we want to increase foreign investment, we must not reduce net exports.)! ! ! ! ! ! ! (It simply means the dividing line, not an exclamation, and no other meaning) The third is to promote the pension reform. First of all, the pension system must be transformed from an immediate payment type to a savings type. The original intention of my country’s existing pension system was to consider the long-term needs of saving pension, but in actual implementation, it became Pay As You Go. This can be barely maintained and is simple and easy to maintain with the same population structure, but it is difficult to deal with the aging crisis brought about by the demographic transition. Second, distinguish between basic guarantees and personal accounts. The vast majority of people confuse the two and put them under the pension for a unified discussion, which has brought great confusion to our understanding and actions. In fact, the purpose, nature of the product, source of funds, payment standards, etc. are fundamentally different between the two. From the perspective of purpose, the former is to build a basic social security network, and the latter is to solve intertemporal allocation caused by short-sightedness; from the perspective of product nature, the former is a public product (full coverage, no difference), and the latter is a market-oriented product (with Differences and incentives); from the perspective of funding sources, the former should be financed, the latter should be paid by enterprises and individuals, and the government should not subsidize; from the perspective of payment standards, the former is a basic guarantee and should not be too high (basic rather than extravagant) ), the latter can change the payment rate and pension treatment standards according to the conditions and needs of enterprises and individuals. Third, properly resolve the transformation costs. On the basis of distinguishing basic guarantees and personal accounts, personal accounts should be appropriately expanded; special treasury bonds are issued to supplement the cost of conversion, to maintain the continuous payment and payment of personal pensions, and to achieve a stable conversion. Fourth, multiple systems cooperate. Some people think that the pension reform can quickly realize the transition, but in fact there is a long way to go. Reform either lowers the pension standard or pays more labor to achieve sustainable pensions. The former can reduce the replacement rate and eliminate the phenomenon that retirement wages are higher than those in the job; the latter can extend the retirement age, but it must be done early. The longer the delay, the more difficult it is to solve. Pension reform also needs to be guaranteed by the improvement of the taxation system, the sound corporate annuity legal system, the enhancement of the ability of pension asset management institutions, and the enhancement of residents’ pension protection and investment management awareness. The central bank is not just talking about the direction. Isn’t the delay in retirement already advancing. Don’t care who cares what, you have to refer to high status. This is the general direction of pension reform. At the same time, the argument mentioned the experience of other countries in providing for the elderly, including: developed countries, as the pioneers of transition, underestimated the role of population and the severity of aging and declining birthrates, and overestimated the role of education technology, encouragement of childbirth, and improvement of elderly care. Third, it overestimated the role of the old-age security system. Developed countries have established old-age security systems very early, but they are not enough to deal with the aging crisis. This is because: First of all, the pension system is essentially an income distribution arrangement, which transfers wealth from the working population to the elderly, and transfers expenditures from the present to the future, without increasing the total wealth and output capacity. Secondly, welfare expenditures such as pensions have reduced savings and investment, and weakened long-term economic growth. Greenspan once pointed out that if there is no high welfare expenditure caused by aging, the economic growth of the United States and the world will be much better. Thirdly, the reform of the pension system is rich in content and difficult. Including the construction of a multi-pillar pension system, reform of the financing model (pay-as-you-go system to fund accumulation system), adjustment of pension parameters (such as pension replacement rate, retirement age, contribution rate), etc. There will be huge resistance, social unrest and even revolution in the reform. Fourth, the role of the elderly care industry is overestimated. Some people say that the development of industries such as elderly care and health has expanded aggregate demand and created new opportunities that can make up for the output loss of the elderly and promote economic growth. This part is correct, but the overall situation is not correct. Because: the “silver economy” such as pension and health has developed, but other industries have shrunk more; aging may expand the demand side, but the reduction in labor has a greater impact on the supply side; the consumption of the elderly is greater than the output, which is negative saving and negative output. So I hope everyone has a clear understanding of the direction of the pension policy. Don’t think about how and where I will go and what I want to accomplish when I retired in the future. The first thing you need to think about is to have a good body! ! ! The fourth is to promote education and technological progress. In the future, my country’s shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven is not just empty talk, but needs real support. First of all, the environment is relaxed. We must grasp the main contradictions and grasp the balance between innovation and supervision. Secondly, establish a basic social security system. Innovation takes risks. If people know that even if they fail, they will have food, housing, and medical care, they will dare to take risks and innovate. The third control housing prices. Innovation and entrepreneurship rely on young people, but most of them have no money. A city’s housing prices are too high, driving them all away, so what about innovation? This is Shenzhen’s main experience in surpassing Hong Kong in the past, and it may become an obstacle to its long-term development in the future. The fourth value is education. We must attach importance to the education of mothers and children; attach importance to basic education, improve education coverage, and education equity; attach importance to science and engineering education. One of the reasons why Southeast Asian countries fall into the middle-income trap is that there are too many liberal arts students. What needs to be pointed out is that education and science and technology progress have a long cycle, slow results, and uncontrollable (Schumpeter also believes that innovation and destruction are hard to find rules). Therefore, our country still needs to focus on the savings of people, money, and materials. Education and technology Supplemented. The positioning of the fourth point, from the structural point of view, is the most important one at the end? In order to prevent you from having such thoughts, there is a sentence at the end of the text, “Education and technology are supplemented.” That is to say, this paragraph is very secondary content. Similar to a person with a car accident and severe bleeding, the doctor said: “First, you have a blood transfusion, and then arrange for an operation. Take a good rest after the operation. During the recovery period, you should eat less spicy food, go out and get fresh air more, and maintain a good mentality.” On the topic of demographic transition. , This paragraph in the countermeasures is the content of “rest well”. The position of controlling housing prices is probably “breathing fresh air”, and the position of emphasizing education is probably “maintaining a good attitude”, which is slightly less important than eating less spicy food.

6 months ago

There are some “coping strategies” and “coping strategies” in this working paper, and the understandings and tendencies reflected in them are worrying. We interpret one by one: 1 “Demographic Dividend” = human blood steamed bread. What is “demographic dividend”? Young laborers have lost confidence and hope in the long-term future, and are forced to reduce, give up, and eliminate their desire to reproduce and raise offspring, because this kind of self-castration of laborers reduces the labor employment price and constitutes a “dividend” to capitalists. . People-oriented, people are the ultimate goal, such basic concepts and positions are absent in this paper. Perhaps there is a point, and that point is probably: only a small group of talents is the ultimate goal, and everyone else is a “dividend”. When they have the ability to work, they are “good things”, and when they lose their ability to work, they are “indebted”. 2 Explain what is meant by “trying to learn from immigrants from developed countries”. The immigrants here are not immigrants, but the introduction of foreign workers. The domestic workers do not constitute the ultimate goal, but only the tools of labor, and then the tools of labor are not enough, so naturally we have to “try” to introduce them from the outside. This article is the implementation and continuation of the understanding of “tools of labor”, because the children born and raised by domestic workers are incapable of working at the beginning, and like the elderly, they are all “indebted”. The direct introduction of young and middle-aged people from outside saves upbringing costs, saves funds, and expands the “dividend.” The core point of the “demographic dividend” theory is that most people are the tools of labor for a small group of people. Therefore, the majority of women who belong to the majority of people are the tools of reproductive labor. Women “have the (biggest) difficulty”, It is regarded as a “tool of reproductive labor.” As long as women are still this tool for a day, they are destined to encounter this difficulty in making tools. This is an objective reality and does not depend on human will. It is like a kind-hearted person. The slave owner said, “To effectively solve the difficulties encountered by slaves in working in shackles and shackles,” the best way is to open the shackles and open the shackles. If you do not open, then the difficulties caused by the shackles and shackles will always exist. 4Education The long-term, slow, and uncontrollable progress of science and technology is a phenomenon after the market economy has developed to an advanced stage. In the early stage of the market economy, during the special war period, the progress brought by education and science and technology was rapid. The effect was quick in the past, but now The slow effect is the fact that the current economic system has gradually changed from promoting the development of productivity to hindering the development of productivity. It only looks at the phenomenon, not the essence, only lists the data, does not derive the argument, does not explore the reasons behind, and directly regards the phenomenon as the essence. What is the difference between giving up treatment and procrastinating for change, and the Chinese people who were weak due to malnutrition and then thought that they were “the sick man of East Asia” and were not saved?

6 months ago

There are too many unreliable assumptions. Too much. Is the young population necessarily a “labor force”? The average life expectancy in China in the late Qing Dynasty was only in the 30s. Is the population structure young enough? Is it very productive? According to this structure, countless countries in Africa should soon go to space and take over the world heritage of the great powers of the elderly. Their age structure is frighteningly young—the wrinkles in the whole country add up to be less than a kilometer long. “The youthful trend of America’s dependence on immigrants”, where is the youth? Most of the young people are born with a large number of Hispanics and African Americans. It is difficult to say whether they will be a force or a resistance in the future-whether they are better at building space shuttles or better at vibrato, flying leaves, and speculation. It’s really hard to say that you can buy coins and zero dollars. It is true that there are more elderly people, and all kinds of costs such as public security and transportation will plummet. And the cost-effectiveness of mental work increases with age. Many stable-operating companies are so fond of old white-collar workers with good records? Rich experience, mature professional ethics, stable psychological quality, low mobility, low management costs, and even cheap wages-accidental medical treatment has employee accident insurance, and they do not need to go to the dock to carry packages. Who says the elderly are a burden? Is Cook a burden? Is Jobs a burden? Is Gates a burden? It is believed that more young people will have higher productivity in the future. What is the essential difference between “this car uses a lot of steel and must run fast”? This is a kind of superstition. The “crisis of population aging” is a pre-modern problem in the strict sense-assuming that everyone is discussing life on the Ford Model T assembly line, or they are all begging for food with wood-cut propellers at Yamaha, that is really a huge problem. The question is what exactly is the demographic structure of the world’s industry now? How many operations in the workshop are manual operations? Agriculture still requires heavy manual labor, but how much has the labor force taking care of a unit area of ​​land dropped? Nowadays, machinery is mainly responsible for physical output. “Labor-intensive industries” will become history. Even “low-end industries” will be highly automated. It is not that “involvement” and “high-pressure living environment” force humans to reduce births, but the excessive young population itself has become a problem, so society instinctively adjusts the population structure. You personally think it is a problem, and that is your business. “Society” obviously doesn’t think this is a problem, but instead thinks it is a solution. You want to encourage people to live their lives because you are afraid that no one will use it in the future, right? What is nobody doing? Do you deliver food? Open Didi? Or should someone pick cotton? Want someone to plant seedlings? Need someone to tear the cabbage? VIP cashier? Why don’t people give birth? Because the people deeply feel that job opportunities will be extreme in the future-either a master’s degree or a doctorate graduate or a gold-collar position, or a low-income allowance. It is better to spend Lao Tzu’s own pension money to give birth to such a subsistence household to receive subsistence allowances. So why don’t you eat more than two or two pig heads, so you can eat bran yancai and give birth to a baby out to eat Lao Tzu’s pig heads? “What is the aging crisis? When I get old, no one can support me. I’m ready to find a beautiful place with a crooked face. To be honest, I didn’t expect to burden the country after the account was cleared.”-This is probably the majority, or even the greatest. The actual thinking of most Chinese elderly people. Dignity is desperate. They are all shouting about Japan’s “aging crisis”. They have been shouting for 20 years. Has Japan really declined? Frankly speaking, that is the illusion that China itself is sitting on the rocket and watching everyone slow down. Who in other countries looks down on Japan so much? It is often said that Japan has “failed” in its governance of aging, and that it is “to no avail” to others. If aging is such an ultimate crisis that must be reversed, are all the developed countries with a population of more than one billion idiots watching their own decline deliberately? Is it possible that people themselves are not as painful as we feel? In order to prevent the new crown with a little human performance, trillions of dollars and euros were issued within a year, and the real death rate of the new crown is obviously far from talking about national subjugation. It is said that the aging is to make adults go to the house and change the surname. In order to deal with this fundamental threat, even if it is spent for 30 years, at least three or four trillion yuan should be invested every year to show sincerity, right? Is it necessary to greatly liberalize and encourage marriage immigration? What should be done to greatly liberalize the adoption of third-world children, right? The catastrophe is imminent, don’t be so twitchy about single tax, right? There is no money to encourage childbirth. Have you considered shifting the annual health care budget of $10 billion to maternity protection and employment protection? Just like the nuclear waste water problem-since you have not exhausted the necessary means, how do you explain your “very important”? Is it evidenced by three bows? As for the conclusion that “too many liberal arts students are linked to the middle-income trap”. You first say yes, what is “liberal arts”. Is economics and management considered a liberal arts? Does Library and Information Science count as liberal arts? Does law count as liberal arts? Journalism is a liberal arts, right? Philosophy of science is liberal arts or science? Ethics is liberal arts or science? Art is liberal arts or science? Do you think there are too many Chinese liberal arts? ? Do you want to reduce it? ! The md generation of people in China almost can’t even speak round and round words. A meeting notice can make people angry. Even the existing liberal arts students are too few and not enough. Are you worried about too many liberal arts students? ! You really don’t need “humanities” to engage in processing with supplied materials. You can try to be Party A in another direction? Let the market educate you on what is meant by “reversely restricting the development of productivity by production relations.” Those who say “Arts students lead to a middle-income trap” should remember the fact-in an era when humans can only play with sticks, stones, and animal skins, it was the group of people who first learned to write poetry and wiped out all their neighbors. . In the long course of history, the advantages brought by production technology can last for at most fifty and one hundred years. Since your enemies can’t be killed, don’t expect them to learn. The Jurchens are illiterate and have no words. Later, they have technical advantages on the battlefield. Are they really winning with technology? Technological advancement can allow you to lead for a decade or two. The two countries compete for two to three hundred years, and even the two religions compete for one to two thousand years. Marathon, let you rush a few more steps at the beginning, really decide that the final champion is you? What really decides the outcome is the “liberal arts” gap. The creator of this China is an out-and-out liberal arts student. Does anyone think that changing to Zhan Tianyou will have a higher success rate? China’s prejudice against liberal arts is stupid. Why are there prejudices against liberal arts? Because of the poor teaching of Chinese liberal arts, liberal arts students are far from being properly and adequately trained. Those with the worst background in science and engineering are fortunate to enter the factory, but liberal arts students who have not been trained are basically displaced. This has led to China’s major disadvantages in culture, art, ideology, organization and collaboration, and even corporate management at the macro level-the soft power is so weak that it is heinously weak, and at the micro level, it has led to personal difficulties for liberal arts students-learning The distance from actual combat is farther than that of science students. But based on this, I came to the conclusion that “too many liberal arts students lead to a middle-income trap”, and even shouted to further weaken the liberal arts and strengthen the science and engineering. It is as if the front wheel leak has too little effect on the driving of the car. Remove the front wheels and hit the rear wheels to solve the problem. Also tnnd the brain to make up “other people’s riding is not slow because the front wheels are too angry.” It was… speechless. Science and engineering are to solve the problems between man and nature, and the humanities of literature, history, philosophy and economics are to solve the problems between people. Who is the greater threat to human happiness? Is it nature or human beings? Science and engineering are solving production problems, and humanities are solving distribution problems. What does an old saying say? Yau also heard that there are people with a state-owned family, who do not suffer from inequality but not poverty and anxiety. There is no poverty, peace and security. If the husband is like this, if the people from afar do not accept it, he will revise the text and morals since then. They come, the security. Science and technology enable you to fight, and humanities enable you to win. How did China’s science and engineering worship formed? The first is that the century-old national humiliation in modern times has been regarded by a large number of people as a “failure of technology”, and it was the loss of the “power of liberal arts” to the “power of science and technology”. But is it true? If you only regard poetry and poetry as a “liberal arts”, it is indeed. The question is, “Liberal Arts” is chanting poetry, right? What caused China’s technological backwardness? Is it the technological backwardness that leads to the technological backwardness? Why is Japan, which used to be equally technologically backward, is not technologically backward now? Was the basic science in Japan very advanced before then? It is precisely the backwardness of cultural spirit that determines the backwardness of technology. China simply did not lose out to a technologically advanced country as a culturally advanced country. But as a culturally backward country lost to a culturally advanced country, technically inferior to humans, it is only the specific form of the loss, not the reason for the loss. Lost in the humanities, not in the science and engineering. If the humanities win, the science and engineering will win sooner or later. Even if it is temporarily inferior, it will certainly be able to catch up from behind. If the humanities lose, the science and engineering will lose sooner or later. Even if it’s not forever now, it’s not enough. All victories are essentially cultural victories. Military victories and technical victories are just ways to pay for cultural victories. It doesn’t matter whether your money is withdrawn from your Alipay account or from your savings account.

6 months ago

1. There is a question. The financial cadres, including the central bank, should be the cadres with the highest level of economics and finance in China, none of them. But it is not necessarily the highest verbal political literacy (note that verbal literacy is not true literacy). After all, the former has a high threshold and requires years of theoretical study plus work and practice. The latter only needs to let go of shame and bark. 2. The central bank The reason why the cadres are so wordy is that the theoretical source should be the “creative destruction” or “destructive innovation” mentioned in Schumpeter (I am also a believer of Schumpeter) in “Theory of Economic Development”. The long-term economic development and long-term prosperity cycle rely on the above-mentioned innovations. Obviously, it is mainly scientific and technological innovation. The role of institutional innovation is to clear the obstacles of the prosperity cycle. For example, scientific and technological innovation is like adc, and institutional innovation is auxiliary. However, we can see from Figure 1 that the central bank’s cadres mentioned that innovation is difficult to find a regularity. It can be seen from the last sentence of Figure 1 that the actual political literacy of the central bank’s cadres is indeed very strong. On the one hand, they are correct. On the other hand, it doesn’t say that the reasons are saved for the organization—what is political literacy? This is literacy. What is the real reason? Let me give a hint to understand Lin Yifu’s theory of late-comer advantage. In the past, including now and for a long period of time, whether the source of China’s rapid growth is to rely on copying homework or doing homework by oneself, well-trained people may not say anything, but all of them are very clear, such as where the technology of domestic mrna is dug. Yes, you can take a look if you are interested. 3. It can be seen from 2 that innovation is often uncontrollable, so their idea may be a whole bunch of engineering sauces for science and engineering (only including disciplines and industries that may produce major innovations, civil engineering and the like are not included). See when there is a great mutation. What can’t be done will be eliminated from the market. As for what kind of work sauce can be successful, it mainly depends on what jobs can be copied in the United States: For example, if Tesla succeeds, a certain thief car will succeed. 4. Because innovation is uncontrollable, industrial planning is often similar to Krypton Gold. It depends on fate. So why are places so keen to draw cards? Low EQ: Because you can make money. High EQ: Millions of X work clothing and food department.

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