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The mainstream market in the currency circle has been a bit miserable in the past two days. Many friends are wondering whether it is really a bull and a bear. It seems that the popularity of the NFT is really a bit of a “fishtail” feeling. I recently learned a new term called: a foundation, which is used to describe funds that have fallen miserably now and all kinds of “mao”. When you see such a paragraph on the Internet, it also shows that the financial markets we can pay attention to are actually all Not so good, including the recent rise in U.S. debt that many big Vs are talking about, which will also have a negative impact on risky assets, and as the crypto world becomes more and more mainstream, it is normal that it is difficult to be alone. There is not much to do today. Let’s make a brief change. One thing is that we need to pay attention to an indicator recently-the premium of grayscale funds. It seems that we have not mentioned greyscale for a long time. At present, the prices of the GBTC and ETHE trust funds in Grayscale have shown a negative premium. There are a lot of data on Grayscale in China. Here I will give you a data page of theblockcrypto website: it mainly represents gbtc in the form of graphs. Or changes in various indicators of ethe. For example, in the above figure, the left side is the estimated fee income change of Gray, and the right is the change in GBTC holdings. It can be seen that most of the gray income comes from the end of last year to the first quarter of this year. Open interest also basically increased rapidly during this period, but it seems to have flattened out in the past one or two months. It is worth noting that the recent GBTC and ETHE both have negative premiums for the first time since 18 years: the negative premium of GBTC on the 4th is -11.59%, and today there is still a negative premium of 12%. In addition, the data updated by ETHE in March is also 4%. Negative premium: Negative premium means that the current price of GBTC or ETHE in its internal secondary market is already lower than the market price of BTC or ETH corresponding to its share of each share. There are three possible reasons for this situation: 1. The primary market is unlocked too much and there is no redemption mechanism. The currency circle has also formed a consensus on the crazy increase in the share of gray positions, that is, a considerable part of this is caused by institutions. Arbitrage, using Bitcoin to obtain GBTC through the gray-level first-level private wood, wait for the 6-month unlock period, and then sell the coins in the secondary market to earn a premium income. The gray-level growth trend mainly started in the second half of last year, so now It is also counted in the peak period of unlocking. If the arbitrage part is large, it may not be enough in their internal trading market. 2. The overseas retail market is sluggish. Buying Grayscale Trust requires a Drum Ticket account. Recently, Meigu, especially Tech Drum, is also in a state of confusion, and this part of investment users overlaps, so it will also trigger confidence in GBTC. Insufficient or sell-off, and BTC itself is also in shock. According to the law of historical premium fluctuations, usually when the market is not so good, the premium will drop. 3. The emergence of competing products of the same type. For example, overseas believe that Canada’s new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be a factor in the negative premium, and there have been many channels for overseas retail investors to purchase crypto since last year. In comparison, they do not have the 2% annual handling fee of Grayscale and the uncertainty risk caused by this premium. It seems that Grayscale will also have changes to reduce the handling fee. I personally tend to think that the factor 2 may be larger. In fact, GBTC itself also has some speculative elements in it. When the crypto market is hot, its performance is often better than the big pie, so its premium is reduced or even negative. It shows the decline in sentiment in this part of the overseas market. In addition, I have also seen some comments overseas that this may also represent the bottom of the phase. Emmm, it seems that it cannot be said that it is completely unreasonable. At the end of each wave, many people see the risk of loss, but it also means the beginning of the next cycle. . Regarding institutional cash-out or something, I haven’t seen the data here. The major shareholders of GBTC, blockfi and Three Arrow Capital’s holdings of this year’s update have increased by 10 to 20 million shares compared to the data in December last year: No The market is worried about hitting the market. Of course, this data update is generally delayed for about 45 days. Those who are interested can pay attention to the changes in the position. Regarding the negative premium of grayscale, I think it reflects to a certain extent the short-term market cooling, especially bit and ether. It may be said that the probability of expecting a short-term upward rush will be a bit small. If the negative premium is short-term, it may not be a big problem, or even an arbitrage opportunity. I think there are many overseas investors discussing this “10% off Bitcoin”. It seems that some more impulsive players have already charged GBTC and Has been quilted. However, if it continues, it will be 20% off and 10% off or even lower. In addition to questioning the so-called amount of money purchased by institutions, I don’t know if Grayscale will face the pressure to open the redemption. There is definitely a way to redeem, and once this liquidity is opened up, GBTC will naturally be able to better track the index, but will it have an impact on the btc market, so next we still need to pay attention to this premium dynamic.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

Inevitably, as long as you hold an ancient account, the bitcoins in that account start at 100,000, but because it is a dead account, it has no impact on the market, but as long as the bitcoins in these accounts move, even if only one is sold , But also an impact on the existing market. Coupled with the broadcasting characteristics of the blockchain, there is no secret transaction at all. Everyone will know that, if you think about it, even if only one account with one hundred thousand is resurrected, if you calculate it for a coin of four hundred thousand, he will eat the market alone. With the value of 40 billion, do you think the group of people who play coins willingly? All the ancient death accounts are being stared at by countless pairs of eyes. A slight change will cause the coin circle to tremble three times.

7 months ago

Show you a set of data, you will know if this is possible! In 2011, in 2 months, Bitcoin rose from 0.75 U.S. dollars to 30 U.S. dollars, a 39-fold increase, and then plummeted to 2 U.S. dollars, a decrease of 93%; from January to April 2013, it took 3 months, and Bitcoin went from 290 U.S. dollars. It plummeted below US$1, a decrease of 99%; from December 2013 to August 2015, experienced a long bear market, fell from US$1175 to US$162, a decrease of 86%; from December 2017 to December 2018, the use of 12 Within months, it fell from 19891 US dollars to 3215 US dollars, a decrease of 84%; from June 2019 to March 2020, it fell from 13,000 US dollars to 3,800 US dollars, a decrease of 71%; … According to this set of data, we can see Bitcoin is indeed a very risky investment. Once it drops by more than 80%, it also happens from time to time. But at the same time, we can also see that the decline seems to be gradually decreasing. Take the most recent plunge from ours. Affected by the new crown epidemic last year, the entire financial market was in the midst of a collapse of confidence. US stocks, crude oil, A-shares, and commodities all collapsed. After that, the currency circle is also doomed. It only took more than 20 hours for Bitcoin to drop from the position of 8000 to the position of 3800. When Bitcoin fell, mainstream currencies and altcoins collapsed. However, last year’s 312 plunge was a black swan event and has nothing to do with the trend. In other words, it is an accident that occurred in an extremely special historical period and under extremely special conditions, so it is difficult to replicate. And even with this extremely low probability black swan event, Bitcoin did not hit three digits. So today, Bitcoin is at a high of nearly 60,000 US dollars, and it may plummet, reaching 40,000, or even 30,000, or 20,000 per pin, but it will definitely not hit the triple digits all at once. If Bitcoin really ushered in a plunge, and how much gain has been swallowed by a seabed needle, we need to judge whether this is a bull-bear conversion or a deep wash. If the judgment is good, all we need to do is to choose the opportunity to buy the bottom. In the cryptocurrency market, the market uses the ARBR indicator to grasp the bull and bear turn. 1) When the price increases rapidly and the value of AR or BR exceeds 200, it means that the market is in an overbought state, which is a manifestation of insufficient rising power and should be sold at this time. Out. (2) When the price drops and the value of AR or BR is lower than 50, it means that the market is in a short-term oversold state, which is a performance that the downward force is about to weaken, indicating that the price will rise in the future, and you should buy at this time. (3) It is worth noting that when using the overbought and oversold values ​​of the ARBR indicator for trading, we must also comprehensively analyze the specific trend of the price. Generally speaking, only when the overbought and oversold value of the ARBR indicator occurs when the cumulative price increase is large or the periodical increase is large, it is an accurate signal for us to conduct short-term trading. …

7 months ago

almost impossible. 1. After several years of development in the currency circle, exchanges have become more and more professional, and the probability of occurrence of this super extreme market is too small. 2. Who can put out so many coins to do this detrimental to their own interests? 3. The bitcoin on the exchange has been declining in the past year, and more and more people or institutions are withdrawing bitcoin from the exchange. This may be one of the reasons why bitcoin is so strong in this bull market. There are fewer and fewer Bitcoins in exchanges, and it is increasingly difficult for Bitcoin’s mid-to-long-term market to be manipulated. If we all withdrew Bitcoin from the exchange, maybe Bitcoin rose to six or seven digits every minute. It is very difficult to see now, but the trend is this trend, and the situation is this situation.

7 months ago

Today, when institutions and listed companies hold coins, even if Satoshi Nakamoto suddenly comes up tomorrow and says that he will use 1.1 million bitcoins he has hidden for more than 10 years to smash the market, it is impossible to smash the bitcoins back to two or three in an instant. Digits. This is already the most bad news I can imagine. Institutions and listed companies hold currency either for hedging risks or for asset reserves, and it is impossible to sell them in large quantities in an instant. (Meitu just bought more than 200 bitcoins for asset reserves at a price of about 4W8 in the past two days. It is difficult for them to fall below 40,000 recently.) Except for institutions, early investors who hold a large amount of bitcoins are unlikely to smash it. plate. They are now worth billions of dollars. Cashing out part of it will save you money and food for a lifetime. There is no need to sell a lot to shrink your assets. Moreover, early investors who can get a large amount of coins today are believers, and the number of bitcoins held in their values ​​is more important than the number of fiat currencies. Then the only people who have a huge risk of selling are those who lost the secret key many years ago and suddenly found it back. However, if I didn’t get back the Bitcoin 1W2W, I can’t find it now. I guess I won’t find it for a lifetime. In addition, not to mention the number of retail institutions waiting for a dip. Bitcoin has a short-selling mechanism. If it drops back to two or three digits in an instant, the Air Force will make money instantly (and the result of a flat single profit will be the same as buying for the market. Buying long is the same, it will cause the price to rise.). What’s more, this is a global game. No one is willing to let this happen. The more people who participate, the less likely it is to happen.

7 months ago

As usual, let’s start with the conclusion: in theory, such an operation is certainly feasible, but in fact it will be a waste of work. Not to mention that Bitcoin transactions are carried out all over the world 7×24 without interruption. If we simply understand Bitcoin as an investment target with a trillion market value, it means that the difficulty of manipulation is higher than other trillion market value targets. More than one order of magnitude. To achieve this, it means that it needs to be sold at the reserve price at almost all exchanges in the world at the same time, and it must trigger a panic selling on a large scale to be considered a success. The problem is that you are going to sell at a price of less than 1,000 or even less than 100 US dollars. What do you follow to panic retail investors who have kept holding costs at tens of thousands of dollars recently? What to throw at this price, it’s better to lie down and pretend to die! Maybe if you have money, you can grit your teeth and buy more. Even panic retail investors can’t follow, do you still expect institutions to follow? People are busy robbing you to give away chips. It is estimated that this kind of operation will at most contribute a little bit of opportunity to kill Bitcoin in this market. Let’s warm up the upcoming April Fool’s Day in advance. To sum up: the lack of followers is meaningless.

7 months ago

Possibly but the odds are very small. The main reason for the sharp drop of more than 30% in one day at March 12 last year was that too many people used financial derivatives to arbitrage and led to a death spiral. For example, if I go to a collateral company to mortgage a bitcoin, I will get 90-60% of the current price, but for example, if the bitcoin drops by 10%, the person who mortgages 90% will liquidate the position, and the platform will liquidate at 92%. It will lead to increased selling and push 88% of mortgages to liquidate their positions, and so on, the selling pressure will become higher and higher, and fewer people will dare to take orders. Until the oversold situation appears. Now many articles analyzing the Great Depression in the United States also pointed out that before the Great Depression, Americans used debt and leveraged stocks, which caused some people to cash out at high points and retrace a point, which led to a catastrophic stock market crash. The fund manager later threw away everything even if it hadn’t been stacked. The last place is chicken feathers.

7 months ago

Stop dreaming, the possibility is zero. what is the reason? There is no need for a lot of reasoning at all. There are now a large number of quantitative transactions in global exchanges, as well as professional institutions that monitor the market 24 hours a day, and will automatically open counter-direction orders in response to extreme market conditions. If you watched the market during this bull market, you would find that there were a lot of “pin” markets, most of which happened on the day when the market fell sharply. For example: a super large amount of selling in an instant, so large that the trading volume of other K-line bars can not be seen. what’s the result? If you switch the K line to 1 minute, it is still a needle, and it is impossible to even replay the game afterwards. This means that Tianquan was sold within 1 minute and was also bought back by Tianquan. It is almost impossible for the retail investors who are watching the market to respond to this, and they would not be able to copy the bottom without paying the bill in advance. Then who knows that it can suddenly plunge so much, and it will rise back in less than a minute after being liquidated? This shows that the quantitative trading behind this coin is already very mature. The scariest thing about quantitative trading is that he can place orders at the speed of machine automation after a short period of market changes have occurred. And the biggest player in the currency circle (any investment) market will not use leverage, because it is clear that no exchange has more capital than the largest. What these capitals want to make money pay attention to is to amortize the average cost of entry, so it is very important to buy bottoms/sells as soon as possible after the occurrence of extreme markets that are not dominated by themselves, so that no one else can be faster than them. ring. As for Bitcoin, the rise or fall of more than 0.5% that occurs within 5 minutes every day is an “extreme market” and is an opportunity for quantitative trading to make a profit. Don’t ask me why I am so sure that it is done by quantitative trading. Every major exchange has an API interface. You will know it after researching it. Anyone who understands it will understand. I came to a conclusion a long time ago that this round of retail investors wanting to play ultra-short-term bands is simply impossible, and it is impossible to watch the market manually, and it is impossible to play this kind of highly purposeful exchange operation. To the thing. Oh, do you think there are still many short-term unidirectional skyrocketings? This shows that this is exactly the market dominated by the largest capital players. So be clear: even if Bitcoin is suddenly declared worthless tomorrow, it is impossible to smash the price of Bitcoin by 90% within “an instant,” unless you can market the market within “an instant.” All of the people are brainwashed and let them all turn into short positions and sell them all. The greater the volatility, the greater the amount of funds used by quantitative trading to open reverse operation orders. The funds that can be mobilized by quantitative trading are invisible and unimaginable. Finally, add two points. If Bitcoin really proves to be worthless tomorrow, and then the biggest capital player wants to do more, and the process of dropping by 50% suddenly pulls back by 20%, then what will the market’s reaction be? The majority “temporarily” becomes the truth. The 20% pull this time can blow up the contract that was shorted midway, which in turn will cause more funds to be forced to open long (the short position is forced to close the short order to become long). Although it will eventually return to zero, it must be a repeated process of falling. If you have experienced A-share market-marking experience, you will know that even one stock that will be delisted soon, write ST, * and “withdraw” in front of the stock name, and the stocks that will be delisted will rise and fall by 5% every day Width, the limit has been lowered for 30 consecutive days, and occasionally there will be a return of the three consecutive daily limits. The principle is the same as above. Although the leverage ratio of A shares is obviously not as high as that of the currency circle, the smelly garbage will be reversed during the zeroing process.

7 months ago

Have! Note that the time limit given by the subject is a moment, no matter how long this moment is, it should not exceed the time of one day. The historical plunge also took a long time. For example, in 2011, the price of Bitcoin fell from US$31.5 to US$4.77 in a month and a half, a decrease of 85%. The biggest one-day drop is $10,000, or 38%, which is not up to the requirement. With this time limit, let’s give a few more methods. Method 1: Brainwash all people on earth. Let everyone be brainwashed, Bitcoin is a worthless thing, it is worthless at all. In the past, the frenzied frenzy was simply a flood of brains. Now you can toss as much as you can! To be able to do this, let alone smashing the plate to three digits, it is smashing it to 0, and it is okay not to smash it to the bottom. Method 2: Brainwash a small number of people. Using the data of Bitinfocharts, we analyzed the distribution of Bitcoin at five time points in the history of Bitcoin. In 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and January of 2021, the distribution of Bitcoin did not change much. Addresses holding 1 BTC or less account for more than 97% of all addresses, and the number decreases sharply as the level goes up. Taking 2021 as an example, there are only 100 Bitcoin addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC. There is only one address at the highest level of 100,000 to 1 million. This address currently holds more than 141,000 BTC. Bitcoin distribution Of course, analyzing the distribution of Bitcoin among different addresses does not really explain the distribution of Bitcoin among the population, because some of these addresses represent organizations such as crypto exchanges, and a person may have more than one Bitcoin wallet address. According to data from Bitinfocharts, there are a total of 33.9 million Bitcoin addresses, and there is no doubt that the Bitcoin community is constantly expanding. It was deduced that approximately 2% of network entities control 71.5% of Bitcoin. These 2% of the people who brainwashed must include major institutions. The focus is on the brainwashing of Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin, and let them smash the market and sing empty Bitcoin. There is still hope that Bitcoin will be smashed to three. Counted. Method 3: Still brainwashing a small number of people. Of course, these few people are the power holders and legislators of sovereign states. The number of people can be reduced a little bit. For example, only a few five permanent countries are needed, and if you control the five permanents, then you will almost control the world. As long as you brainwash them and let them legislate, Bitcoin trading is a crime, and you can start holding Bitcoin for three years. That Bitcoin can definitely return to the black trading area in an instant, and it is not a problem that the price hits three digits. On the afternoon of April 18, Reuters reported that the Indian government will ban cryptocurrencies and impose fines on those who trade or even hold such assets in the country. India will define any behavior related to encrypted assets as a crime. Friends, have you started to act? The method already exists, it’s up to you to implement it! Zunjia believes that everything is possible! I just don’t quite understand. If you can do this, why have to compete with Bitcoin, which has a market value of 1 trillion, and Apple has a market value of 2 trillion. All mankind is unified, so why don’t you study how to help Zhuge Liang in the Northern Expedition, and how to escape the snail hunting. For more content, please pay attention to Zunjia Finance, Hong Kong and US A shares 0 commission ~ risk warning: The content in the article has its own specific position, investment is risky, and trading needs to be cautious. Zunjia strives but cannot guarantee that the above content is completely accurate and reliable, and does not assume any responsibility for the profit or loss arising from the operation of relying on or using third-party information.

7 months ago

“A moment” is impossible. First, there is machine arbitrage among various exchanges. In theory, as long as the bitcoin price of a certain exchange is lower than the price of other exchanges and the value is greater than the two-way transaction fee, there will be machines to move bricks to arbitrage. Second, Bitcoin is the leader of the digital currency market. After more than ten years of development, it has become a belief in the hearts of most people. Ordinary traders will go to the bottom when they see Bitcoin pierced. “Ten Moments” is okay. But there is a prerequisite: that is, the person who smashed the bitcoin holdings reached the level of control. In this way, “one moment, two moments, three moments, four moments, five moments, six moments,” and so on, continue to smash, buy one, buy two, or even buy ten thousand in the market and continuously consume it. Smashed it down. But for now, the possibility is very small. Because the largest known account holding Bitcoin has not been moved. Once moved, it is estimated that the holder will be more dangerous. Haha, maybe the world disappeared, so I went to do research.

7 months ago

impossible. The price of the currency in the currency circle is controlled by dealers, institutions, and exchanges. Ordinary people can only follow the trend and have a soup. If the trend is judged wrong, they will only be deeply affected. Even if it plummeted to 3000U last year, everyone would not be able to sell it. In the currency circle, even if the mainstream currency, altcoins have no hematopoietic function, the holders of the currency have a consensus. Coins are naturally valuable, so today, Bitcoin can no longer return to the price of the year.

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