Summarized several contradictory explanations related to the newborn population: 1) The contradiction between the increase in aging pension consumption and the decline in the newborn population! One of them is the pension’s Yin Chi Mao Liang. 2) The contradiction between the consolidation of profit-sharing groups and the decline in the new population. Class consolidation does not mean that the two strata have no wealth exchange, but that the second of the second and eighth middle schools depends on the wealth created by the eighth middle school. 3) The financial bubble will rely on the support of the lower base of the pyramid for overdrafts in the future. To give the simplest example, investing in so many houses is expecting someone to buy it from the holders at a higher price in the future. The reason is that there is no fear. The bundled public resources may not be as scarce as before after the declining birthrate, and some people even become non-rigid needs. 4) In the short-term, the role of smart manufacturing in publicity is greater than its actual role, and input or even output. Most of it requires local finances. We account for more than half of the world’s manufacturing capacity, which is also a key part of economic growth. It will be very important in the short term (ten years). Relying on labor dividends, the so-called dividend refers to the cost-effectiveness of labor, which includes not only the average education level, but also the average working hours and hourly wages! The prerequisite for making money in finance is that the entity is profitable, and the relationship has changed from the previous symbiosis to the present parasitism, and the premise is that the host cannot die. 5) The middle-income trap relies heavily on cost-effective labor dividends. The low- and middle-end manufacturing industries are often labor-intensive, and their profits are derived from the mining of large-scale labor dividends. Correspondingly, many people are provided with middle-income opportunities. Disappearing, it is unprofitable. The capital-led industrial chain leads to more cost-effective areas. Fewer people may not necessarily increase the employment rate. The middle-income early-stage cake continues to grow, covering up the problem of uneven distribution. Once wealth The speed of creation drops, and social conflicts intensify in an instant. To sum up, the economy is a system in which some people produce and some people consume. No matter when there is a shortage of groups that create wealth more than consumption, aging coupled with the emergence of Ponzi in various fields, it also needs takers, such as macro leverage and asset bubbles. Rely on young people to deal with the situation. But it has also fallen into an endless loop. The smaller the young population, the greater the average burden on young people by aging and Pond’sization. The greater the burden, the lower the fertility rate, and the smaller the young population in the future, and even low-desire groups and groups will appear. The gnawing old tribe should also be excluded from the wealth-producing group. Therefore, there is almost no solution to the decline in fertility at this stage, and the solution can only be found in the endless loop. The first possibility: increase output without increasing working hours. This is more dependent on technological progress and let young people There is enough time to enjoy life; the second possibility: to prevent Pondrichization from reaching young people, which means major reforms in many distribution systems, such as the bundling of academic degrees and houses, and a fairer distribution of public resources. It is not a joint effort to force young people to take up all aspects of the profit. The increase in pension costs under aging cannot be completely attached to young people. The third possibility: to strengthen the implementation of labor protection, can not make 996 really a blessing, even there is no rest time, marriage and childbirth education is even more difficult, this is obviously a way of exhaustion.


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6 months ago

I have said before about the ineffectiveness of fertility promotion. Experts suggest letting go of three births to deal with the structural crisis brought about by declining birthrates and aging. Can it actually increase the fertility rate? What are the reasons for the declining birthrate? I just want to talk about the basic infeasibility of immigration. Let’s put aside the culture, the impression of certain national races and religions, and simply talk about some more basic mathematics and logic. First of all, if there is a replacement rate that is normal or slightly lower than the normal level, China needs to increase its annual population of about 18 million. This is easy to calculate, 1.4 billion/75=18.6 million. Then this year’s birth population is generally believed to be less than 13 million. The difference is 5 million. Suppose that only 2 million people are introduced a year, and that there are really so many people willing to come. It seems that China’s 1.4 billion base is not very large, but in fact these immigrants must only accumulate in first- and second-tier cities. Suppose 20 cities, that is, 100,000 people in each city every year. What is this concept? It is said that there are now less than 30,000 blacks in Guangzhou. As the most ethnically complex city in the world, New York is the place with the largest number of Chinese outside Asia. It has 3 Chinatowns. After a century of immigrants and multiplication, there are probably more than 600,000 Chinese. Now 100,000 people will be migrants from each city every year… Some people say that it is possible to evacuate below the 3rd line. Let’s not talk about whether there are so many jobs below the 3rd line. The income level of those places is not high. China is a country with a very large average gap. The income and average prices of 4-5 tier cities (I won’t talk about housing prices) are hardly attractive to immigrants. If semi-mandatory placement is used, no one dares to come. In addition, the level of immigration governance below the 3rd line is also a problem. Then, what I’m talking about here is only 2 million immigrants every year. In fact, this number cannot solve China’s population problem at all. The decline in the birth population in 2019-2020 alone is generally expected to exceed 2 million. In other words, even if there are 2 million immigrants each year from now on, they can only fill the gap in birth decline in 2020 (a reduction gap, not a stock gap).

6 months ago

The wording can almost be said to be very harsh, especially in the last chapter, which feels like pointing to the nose and cursing. All overdue benefits only push the price to the future. For example, China’s rapid development of infrastructure is behind the high housing prices that far exceed income growth; behind the demographic dividend and engineer dividend are low wages and poor working conditions. Behind these rapid economic growth is the long-term growth potential of overdraft. The ancients clouded the dead to make up for it. However, the ten central banks will not go back to the cost of long-term path dependence. The historical philosophical movement has developed to where it is today. I don’t have any ability or information to make false predictions about where it is going in the future, and I can only wait and see.

6 months ago

On the whole, due to the official caliber of the paper, it has played down the current situation and the seriousness of the problem to a certain extent, and is optimistic about solving the problem. With more detailed data analysis, it proves that the country’s population is rapidly aging, declining birthrate, and getting rich The old situation, but the so-called countermeasures taken out are suspicion of avoiding the important. Personally, the crisis of population and aging is imminent. We have already missed the window of remedy to a certain extent. As the marriage rate declines, the divorce rate increases, labor conflicts, education and medical care, retirement and pension problems accumulate, one-child Fertility rates are no longer sustainable. In reality, birth restrictions have not been liberalized, and the silver-haired economy is still advocating that there is great potential for the economy. More importantly, the most critical social resource allocation problem that restricts population growth. There is still no effective countermeasures and hope to solve them. The polarization is still going on, and solving the problem of old age and low birthrate is just empty talk.

6 months ago

People are not tools. Man is an end, not a means. The fruits of development are shared by all people. “Everyone’s free development is the condition for the free development of all people.” Life is alive, life is not easy, and the purpose of development should be to make each living person live a better life. Instead of entangled with too many people and few people, we should return to this basic issue. No one wants the next generation to live in an uncomfortable world. This is a fundamental and fundamental issue, as well as the root of all issues of survival and development and public policies: What is an ideal life? What is the ideal social order? How do you want to spend your life? There must be labor, entertainment, consumption, savings, dignity, and reasonable labor income. All of these are inseparable from the division of labor and cooperation of people, and they cannot do without people’s mutual assistance. For survival resources, a reasonable exchange price and distribution mechanism must be formed on the basis of division of labor and cooperation. Every legal profession should be made into a profession with dignity, security, a reasonable career and a safe expectation, without distinguishing the so-called high and low or the three-six-nine. Otherwise, the root cause of the mechanism that forces people to become leeks will not be eliminated. To put it bluntly, you can’t expect some people to be leeks when they are born, and you can’t expect other children to be the cows and horses for you. It is hoped that a person is destined to be a tool person, a cheap labor, and do a lot of work for very little money. This line of thinking is inherently immoral. When discussing social issues, you should consider what you think about the object you are talking about, even if you consciously or unconsciously “should” in your words. It is not a good way to return women to their families. When the absolute number of females is lower than that of males, if women’s income is also lower than that of males, and men are required to bear all the economic costs, then what is the situation of women’s sexual choices against men, and what is the tragic situation of competition among men, you can imagine. Is this kind of scene everyone’s favorite? Although immigrants are not Chinese citizens, they are also human beings. They have dignity and rights. They have different levels of needs such as survival, development, and social identity. While creating value, they also need resources for survival and development. It is impossible to just let immigrants work. , Does not give immigrants rights. This also requires social resources. For example, can immigrants settle and buy a house in China? Can children born in China be naturalized and can they go to school in China? Where do the indicators for entering a higher education come from? These are all problems. How many years later, if you start robbing the school district with immigrants, and the second generation of immigrants rushing to enter the school, will the scene be unbearable? So immigration is not a very light thing. Refer to the United States. Refer to the previous answer that the permanent residency is no longer there. For the general onlookers, when we are concerned about social issues or public issues, if we are entangled in cumbersome details and arguments, we can’t figure out our clues. It is recommended to take a few minutes to consider the basic values ​​and what our ultimate purpose is. Of course, don’t justify and justify the unnecessary sacrifice and suffering of others. By the way, I should also reflect on where I am in the whole logic chain and the society of theoretical derivation.

6 months ago

Since I will not give anonymity, I might as well say it clearly. For a long time, I have seen Zhihu’s population questions and answers, all of which are one kind: hahaha, isn’t it fully liberalized yet? Everyone is gone! This scene is too cool to see, one by one is no longer born, this has to be done, all have to be killed, destroyed, hahahaha. Right, right, not serious, not serious, don’t pay attention, family planning continues to be carried out, there are still many people, don’t you think you can’t find a job? Hahahahaha. Yes, 996 continue, don’t stop. Big and small weeks, engage, Da Ma Ge Xiao Ma Ge, Dong Ge. Oh, you guys are busy, it’s okay, don’t worry about us, really, it’s not a hindrance, what should you do, what else should you do. Company development is important! Can’t slow down, yes, hurry up, get up. My reason tells me that if the population brings catastrophic consequences to this society, I will never die, I will be the one lying in the nursing home, no one comes to see me, the back is covered with sores, and no nurse can help me. The one that turned over. I would be the one who retired at the age of thirty-five and coincided with the collapse of the housing market, then opened Didi to pay off the debts and then had to work until seventy-five years old to start receiving a pension. I think the price of vegetables and meat will get higher as the price of vegetables and meat gets higher. Then the kid who came across as a volunteer in the nursing home told him that when we were only 35 pounds of watermelon, I was drooling, but I really couldn’t eat it. My reason is very clear. When the social structure collapses, it must be me who is the most miserable, not Brother Ma and the others who have no good fortune. But I don’t know why, I just can’t stop feeling good and happy. I have the kind of joy that I felt when I was in high school and there was a power outage during my self-study nights. Obviously good students have finished their homework, only I was waiting for Ergou next door to copy the paper, Ergou was waiting for the fat copy in front, but the happiest is us, we clamored to go home, I secretly locked the phone screen Unlock it, let him shine a bright green light in the dark, and then quickly shut it off when someone next to you yells whose phone is on. We laughed while listening to the class next door being noisier than us, fearing that the call would come soon. So I hope the radio will ring soon, tell us to end school hahahaha. Don’t call. Don’t call. I know that this kind of happiness is a kind of sickness, a kind of despicable root of badness. Maybe even if the reverse is vigorous development, the population is no problem, the competition continues to be fierce, and the human taste continues to be bleak, then my life is probably about the same miserable. Well, the blessing will not really come to me. When I was young, I would simply give advice and talk nonsense about what welfare and policies should be introduced. We must improve welfare and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. But then I realized that the right to speak is in the hands of vested interest groups that have many powers, just like the Yangtze River is rolling away from the east, how can people resist the general trend? I don’t care anymore. I am now full of cocoons. I am already thirty years old. What am I afraid of? While witnessing the death of elderly family members one by one, while witnessing the pain of being bred all over, I can still look at you and smile, as if this is the best time. Actually, around me, the little friends who used to play in the yard of the old house with no movement, no laughter, no leakage of the front teeth, are now facing polycystic, low sperm survival rate, obesity, and high. blood pressure. In the night with these terms working overtime, do you think there is light in their eyes? Is there any hope? Is there a love for this world? It’s just that this kind of happiness, this kind of deformed refreshment also makes me feel ashamed, makes me feel gloomy, and makes me question the education I have received over the years. How can I think so? I should worry about the country and the people. I’m cool, happy, but what about the people who have the subsistence allowance? What about farmers who only have 200 yuan in pensions? Of course they will be worse than me. No matter how miserable I am, I can still type on the keyboard and listen to Jay Chou’s Qilixiang. As long as I listen to Qilixiang, how can I be miserable? This kind of self-blame and shame will quickly and soon turn into an indescribable sadness. Sure enough, Ultraman doesn’t exist. Where are the Kuro cards scattered around the world? And Doraemon, it’s already…it doesn’t matter…it doesn’t matter…Mom, they abandoned me, like you experienced, abandoned my mother, how much I love you when you sing When I love you, it’s just those violent emotions that torment me when I can’t fall asleep. My gradual falling past is connected to your mother in the starless night. I love you.

6 months ago

Yi Fuxian, author of “The Big Country’s Empty Nest: China’s Family Planning Going Astray” Reporter: You emphasize that China’s fertility rate has been below the replacement level since 1991. What are the official data released by China, and what is the basis for your judgment? Yi Fuxian: I also rely on official surveys and censuses. According to China’s official data, the fertility rate in 1990 was 2.25, but the 1991 sample survey was only 1.8. Then the 1995 small census found that the fertility rate was only 1.43; in the 2000 census, the fertility rate was only 1.22. These objective data are consistent with my judgments based on medicine, sociology and other disciplines. However, Chinese officials do not recognize the fertility data obtained from these objective surveys. It said that all developed countries have 1.6, how can we only have 1.2? With a stroke of the pen, it changed to 1.8. Reporter: With the stroke of your pen, is it the data tampering you mentioned in the article you just published? Yi Fuxian: This can be explained more. For example, if the fertility rate in 2000 was 1.2, then only 13 million people would be born, but the National Bureau of Statistics announced it was 17.71 million. Then in 2010, these children born in 2000 will be 10 years old, and there is no need to hide them. According to the 2010 census, there were only 14 million people aged 10 years. In fact, this data still has water, but even if there is water, it is only 14 million, not 17 million. Then in 2015, these children graduated from junior high school, and there were only 13 million people who graduated from junior high school. The 2015 census showed that the 15-year-old population was only 13 million, which is the 13 million births obtained by the 2000 census. It is accurate. The 17.71 million announced by the National Bureau of Statistics is wrong. There are many other years of data that have similar problems. That is to say, it will take many years for the data revised by the National Bureau of Statistics to use other data to slowly reflect that the data they revised in that year was wrong. Reporter: As an official statistical agency, why should it tamper with the actual survey results? Yi Fuxian: In 2007, Yu Xuejun, Director of the Laws and Regulations Department of the National Family Planning Commission, had an interview on the Chinese government website. His statement represented the mentality of Chinese officials and mainstream demographic scholars. He said that if there is only 1.2, there is no need to implement family planning. He also said that it is precisely because our current data is 1.7 and 1.8, if there is a rebound, the population will increase indefinitely. In other words, if it is 1.2, family planning should be stopped and the entire family planning system should be abolished, so many people will have no jobs. For the demographic community, this means that their lifetime research is based on the wrong data. If population data becomes real data, then their lifetime research will be wrong and worthless. By publishing papers, they have obtained a series of positions, honors and benefits, etc., which are all based on fraud. Therefore, the demographic community does not believe in real data either. Reporter: You have been calling for the abolition of the population and family planning policy for many years. Recently, you said on Twitter that many policies in China are based on incorrect population data. Can you explain your point of view? Yi Fuxian: Because population data is the basis of economic, social, education, national defense, and foreign policy, if the population data is wrong, then other policies are also wrong. For example, the Chinese government is generous with regard to the One Belt One Road policy, and it is also generous in international aid and foreign investment. But if China has real population data and China’s economic growth is not so fast, then the Belt and Road Initiative should not implement so many preferential policies, and foreign investment will be more cautious, because China itself is facing a crisis. In addition, there are local debts. On the one hand, if your economy cannot grow, on the other hand you have to spend money and continue to spend money on it, which will lead to local debts. In 2014, I published an article in the State Council’s “China Development Observation” and pointed out that from a population perspective, local governments will face many debt crises. At that time, the local debt crisis was not very serious, but now the local government debt crisis is already very serious. Also, according to real population data, China’s real estate will also face a crisis. China has built so many houses, but no one lives, the houses cannot be sold. Once the real estate shrinks, it will cause a big bubble crisis, which will cause a great blow to the Chinese economy and the global economy. Reporter: You mentioned just now that the authenticity of China’s population data and population policy will affect China’s diplomacy and national defense. What is your specific view? Yi Fuxian: Chinese scholars judged based on erroneous population data. China’s economy will soon surpass that of the United States, and it will be two or three times that of the United States. This also misleads the international community. For example, Bai Bangrui, a former adviser to the White House of the United States, also said that China’s economic future is two or three times that of the United States, and the United States has a sense of anxiety and therefore has a strategy of confrontation between the United States and China. These are all based on erroneous misjudgments that have deteriorated Sino-US relations. There could be a lot of good cooperation between China and the United States.

6 months ago

1. I saw that some of the WeChat Moments and official accounts that I followed were transferring the work report of the central bank, and the topic was about population. I thought it was the central bank’s prediction and response measures for the long-term interest rate structure changes when the population grew negative for a long time in the future. On the one hand, we should guide the society and academia to conduct some discussions, and the more the arguments will become clearer; on the other hand, the current monetary policy is not clear. According to past experience, create a long-term anchor. The people’s increasing demand for… (PSL shed reform) later became matched with economic growth, and then later became matched with economic growth under potential total factor productivity (that is, although GDP is 6%, M2 is 10 %, this is a match, why? Because some of our production factors have not been played out. If they are all played out, it will be 10%). Open it and look, good guy, the title is population, and the content is also population. Open Zhihu, the better guy, you are discussing the issue of liberal arts students, and the depth of your discussion is really breathtaking. Let me just say a little bit about it, and let’s not talk about such esoteric topics as liberal arts students. 2. Although the central bank does not care about the population, the status of the central bank, what he said, is likely to represent the direction of work. Similar to the past, when the financial department talked about population or real estate, it was not actually under his control, but they had a high status. 3. So, you don’t need to look at the process of Yang’s mother, just look at the conclusion. Is there any good comment? Why do you think the central bank is arguing with you? First look at the conclusion, then compare the conclusion to find his argument, and see how his argument evaluates this part of the element. You probably know what his true attitude towards this element is. Especially for both the need and the need, but also more. What is needed, who is the first and who is the first, this should be returned to the main text. (1) The coping method is not quoted. The general idea is that time does not wait for me. At this time, I do not wait for when. We must seize historical opportunities and grasp historical trends with the determination, courage and perseverance of the enemy and the invincibility, and the courage and perseverance. To live, to be able to live, to want to live. (2) Countermeasures Aging means net consumption, and declining birthrate means no output. The natural response is to save. Liberalization and encouragement of fertility are the savings of labor; savings and investment are savings of capital and productivity; perfecting the pension system is savings of wealth; education and technological progress are savings of productivity. One is to fully liberalize and vigorously encourage childbirth. The birth rate depends on the proportion of women of childbearing age and the fertility rate. The former is affected by the historical demographic status and it is difficult to change; the latter is affected by the current women’s awareness, and the improvement takes effect relatively quickly. On the one hand, we must fully liberalize childbirth (three births and above). Don’t hesitate to wait and see the effects of the existing policies. Let them take advantage of the fact that some residents want to live but don’t let them live. When everyone no longer wants to let them go, it will be useless. On the other hand, fertility is strongly encouraged. It is necessary to create a good reproductive environment, and effectively solve the difficulties women encounter in pregnancy, childbirth, nursery school, and school, so that women dare, be able to give birth, and want to give birth; advocating childbirth is not only a matter for parents and families, but also for the country and society responsibility. The first and most important thing is to increase the willingness to have children. In fact, everyone thinks so, right? That’s right. A small number of people may say that this is not just a slapstick, you can’t say that, because…Yes, you can’t say that. The second is to attach importance to savings and investment. First of all, we must be highly vigilant and prevent the savings rate from falling too quickly. It must be clear that our country not only shoulders the heavy responsibility of development, but also faces a heavy burden of pensions, and understands how to grow without accumulation. Second, we must recognize that consumption is never the source of growth. It is necessary to understand that it is easy to change from frugality to luxury, and it is difficult to change from luxury to frugality; it is necessary to understand that there are historical reasons for the high consumption rate in developed countries, and they are trying to change but are unable to recover. Therefore, do not use this as an example to learn from. Third, we must attach importance to investment. To expand investment in the central and western regions of China, although my country’s overall marginal return of capital continues to decline, there is still much to be done in the central and western regions of machine substitution; to expand outbound investment, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America, because these regions provide a large amount of Deposited demographic dividend. (It simply means the dividing line, not exclamation, no other meaning) (The content of this paper by the central bank is quoted in the brackets: 1 From the perspective of structural adjustment of economic aggregate demand, the transformation of economic development mode is to enhance consumption demand and economic growth To increase investment, increase savings and increase investment, increase investment efficiency and reduce net exports. 2 Promote consumption in an all-round way and increase consumption’s fundamental role in economic development. To increase foreign investment, net exports cannot be reduced.) (Simply It means the dividing line, it is not an exclamation, and it has no other meaning.) The third is to promote the pension reform. First of all, the pension system must be transformed from an immediate payment type to a savings type. The original intention of my country’s existing pension system was to consider the long-term needs of saving pension, but in actual implementation, it became Pay As You Go. This can be barely maintained and is simple and easy to maintain with the same population structure, but it is difficult to deal with the aging crisis brought about by the demographic transition. Second, distinguish between basic guarantees and personal accounts. The vast majority of people confuse the two and put them under the pension fund for unified discussion, which has caused great confusion to our understanding and actions. In fact, the purpose, nature of the product, source of funds, payment standards, etc. are fundamentally different between the two. From the perspective of purpose, the former is to build a basic social safety net, and the latter is to solve intertemporal allocation caused by short-sightedness; from the perspective of product nature, the former is a public product (full coverage, no difference), and the latter is a market-oriented product (with Differences and incentives); from the perspective of funding sources, the former should be financed, the latter should be paid by enterprises and individuals, and the government should not subsidize; from the perspective of payment standards, the former is a basic guarantee and should not be too high (basic rather than extravagant) ), the latter can change the payment rate and pension treatment standards according to the conditions and needs of enterprises and individuals. Third, properly resolve the transformation costs. On the basis of distinguishing basic guarantees and personal accounts, personal accounts should be appropriately expanded; special treasury bonds are issued to supplement the cost of conversion, to maintain the continuous payment and payment of personal pensions, and to achieve stable conversion. Fourth, multiple systems cooperate. Some people think that the pension reform can quickly realize the transition, but in fact there is a long way to go. Reform either lowers the pension standard or pays more labor to achieve sustainable pensions. The former can reduce the replacement rate and eliminate the phenomenon that retirement wages are higher than those in the job; the latter can extend the retirement age, but it must be done early. The longer the delay, the more difficult it is to solve. Pension reform also needs to be guaranteed by the improvement of the taxation system, the sound corporate annuity legal system, the enhancement of the ability of pension asset management institutions, and the enhancement of residents’ pension protection and investment management awareness. The central bank is not just talking about the direction. Isn’t the delay in retirement already advancing. Don’t care who cares what, you have to refer to high status. This is the general direction of pension reform. At the same time, the argument mentions the experience of other countries for the elderly, including: developed countries, as the pioneers of transition, underestimated the role of population and the seriousness of aging and declining birthrate, and overestimated the role of education technology, encouragement of childbirth, and improvement of elderly care. Third, it overestimated the role of the old-age security system. Developed countries have established old-age security systems very early, but they are not enough to deal with the aging crisis. This is because: First of all, the pension system is essentially an income distribution arrangement, which transfers wealth from the working population to the elderly, and transfers expenditures from the present to the future, without increasing the total wealth and output capacity. Secondly, welfare expenditures such as pensions have reduced savings and investment, and weakened long-term economic growth. Greenspan once pointed out that if there is no high welfare expenditure caused by aging, the economic growth of the United States and the world will be much better. Thirdly, the reform of the pension system is rich in content and difficult. Including the construction of a multi-pillar pension system, reform of the financing model (pay-as-you-go system to fund accumulation system), adjustment of pension parameters (such as pension replacement rate, retirement age, contribution rate), etc. There will be huge resistance, social unrest and even revolution in the reform. Fourth, the role of the elderly care industry is overestimated. Some people say that the development of industries such as elderly care and health has expanded total demand and created new opportunities that can make up for the output loss of the elderly and promote economic growth. This part is correct, but the overall situation is not correct. Because: the “silver economy” such as pension and health has developed, but other industries have shrunk more; aging may expand the demand side, but the reduction in labor has a greater impact on the supply side; the consumption of the elderly is greater than the output, which is negative saving and negative output. So I hope everyone has a clear understanding of the direction of the pension policy. Don’t think about how and where I will go and what I want to accomplish when I retired in the future. The first thing you need to think about is to have a good body! ! ! The fourth is to promote education and technological progress. In the future, my country’s shift from factor-driven to innovation-driven is not just empty talk, but needs real support. First of all, the environment is relaxed. We must grasp the main contradictions and grasp the balance between innovation and supervision. Secondly, establish a basic social security system. Innovation takes risks. If people know that even if they fail, they will have food, housing, and medical care, they will dare to take risks and innovate. The third control housing prices. Innovation and entrepreneurship rely on young people, but most of them have no money. A city’s housing prices are too high, driving them all away, so what about innovation? This is the main experience that Shenzhen has surpassed Hong Kong in the past, and it may become an obstacle to its long-term development in the future. The fourth value is education. We must attach importance to the education of mothers and children; attach importance to basic education, improve education coverage, and education equity; attach importance to science and engineering education. One of the reasons why Southeast Asian countries fall into the middle-income trap is that there are too many liberal arts students. What needs to be pointed out is that education and science and technology progress have a long cycle, slow results, and uncontrollable (Schumpeter also believes that innovation and destruction are hard to find rules). Therefore, our country still needs to focus on the savings of people, money, and materials. Education and technology Supplemented. The positioning of the fourth point, from the structural point of view, is the most important one at the end? In order to prevent you from having such thoughts, there is a sentence at the end of the text, “Education and technology are supplemented.” That is to say, this paragraph is very secondary content. Similar to a person with a car accident and severe bleeding, the doctor said: “First, you have a blood transfusion, and then arrange for an operation. After the operation, you should take a good rest. During the recovery period, you should eat less spicy food, go out for fresh air more, and maintain a good attitude.” On the topic of demographic transition. , This paragraph in the countermeasures is the content of “rest well”, the position of controlling housing prices is probably “breathing fresh air”, and the position of emphasizing education is probably “maintaining a good attitude.”

6 months ago

A certain classmate said that I was Mr. Bai’s black money, and he chased me in a private letter. In fact, it was not that I lived in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan Province. My grades were neither low nor high, and my family conditions were neither bad nor bad. I went to college. It is also a medium level, an ordinary undergraduate, and a computer science. I am about to graduate. I can be regarded as the most ordinary template for ordinary people in our place. I am not a rich second-generation, but I can live in the provincial capital. Everyone has no shortage of snacks, clothes and toys since childhood. I can attend the cram school interest class, and it can even be said that the family conditions are very good. I am really grateful to my parents for giving me such a good living condition. They have no culture, but they rely on their own hands to be diligent. In this city, my parents often say, “Xiao, we will be relaxed when you work.” I really thought that back then, but now the more I grow up, the more pessimistic I am about my salary after graduation. Basically It is two thousand to three thousand. Good three thousand are more than two thousand less. Moreover, there is no five social insurance and one housing fund for the work here in Henan (a few have, or a part of it, not all five social insurance and one housing fund are paid. There are very few people who are fully recruited, let’s just talk about most of them), there are no two-day breaks. This is still a computer study. Looking back at the house price, the average price is about 15,000. It is very discouraging. It will take a few years for me to buy one. The house with two bedrooms and one living room with study room I want? I just don’t understand, why can’t I rely on myself to buy a house where I grew up? Why should I buy a house and have my family emptied their savings and carry on decades of loans? Not counting the car, the bride price, and the three golds. By the way, my child, how dare I think of my child. It’s really uncomfortable to take money from the family. Looking at my parents’ gray hair, I have to open my mouth and ask them for money. I feel like a waste. And, objectively speaking, my conditions are relatively good. There are still a large number of people. There is no such thing as a long-lasting saying “Zhengzhou earns money and Zhengzhou spends money.” I don’t know if I want to take it home, but this sentence has been spread in Zhengzhou for a long time.

6 months ago

Looking at this paper, there is always a feeling of “it is about to climax, but he ended.” The paper uses a lot of space to introduce the history and common problems of the world-wide population structure, and wait until the paragraphs discussing social issues in China. The problem is covered at once, and even avoided. As for the decline in China’s own birth rate, the reason given in the article is: women’s desire to have children is low. Is this not the whole reason? A boy of me can’t stand the practice of dumping the pot to women. In addition, the suggestions given at the end of the article are only based on the reasons discussed in the previous article and are not comprehensive. The suggestion seems to be effective, but if it is implemented, there will be a long way to go. In summary, the paper is still too gentle, a bit like an official report

6 months ago

This article points out that “the demographic dividend is to be repaid”, which is already shocking enough. I talked about some of the experiences and lessons of developed countries. As for the lesson, it seems to me that I am scolding certain departments…underestimating the role of population. Especially in the context of high population growth for a long time, the population is simply regarded as a burden in general, and the decline in the population and the intensity of the decline are not expected. I didn’t realize from the bottom of my heart that population decline is actually a serious constraint on growth. Overconfidence and overestimation. One is that it overestimates the effect of improving the quality of a single labor force. It always feels that a college student is worth ten migrant workers. But the example of Japan has proved that the dividends of education and technology cannot offset the impact of the sharp declining birthrate. Japan’s average years of education from 90 to 10 years have increased by 2.6 years, but total factor productivity has dropped from 74.5% to 70.3% of the U.S. imperial counterpart. The second is the overestimation of the effect of policies to stimulate births. Every developed country burns money crazily, and it is still below the total fertility rate of 2.1. In 2006, it was 1.26 in Japan. It rose to 1.45 in 15 years and fell to 1.36 in 19 years. The third is the overestimation of the pension system and the pension industry. They all thought that they were able to make money evenly, but in fact they were losing money, and they did not increase the total wealth of society. Comparing the documents of a certain department, it is almost a one-to-one face. The article specifically mentioned the U.S. and India. Although it is a demographic perspective, it can actually be regarded as a wake-up call to the optimism of Sino-US confrontation. By 50 years, the U.S. will have 50 million more people, while China will drop by 32 million. In terms of the more critical labor structure, the proportions of the labor population in China and the United States in 19 years were 70.6% and 65.2%, respectively. However, in 50 years, the proportion of the US imperial labor population will rise by 7.7%, while China will fall by 15.2%. There will be a key crossover where the proportion of China’s labor population is 1.3% lower than that of the American imperial population. The same reversal is the elderly dependency ratio. In 19 China and the United States were 17.8% and 24.8% respectively, but by 50, China will be 7% higher than the US imperialism. If the fertility trend is not reversed, thirty years later, old China will face middle-aged American emperors and young India. The faculty thought for a long time, but they probably didn’t think that we were a disadvantage in terms of population. A lot of suggestions are given at the end of the article, but the source of these suggestions actually comes from the “experiences of developed countries in dealing with population transition” in the first half of the article. The article summarizes it well: developed countries have dealt with aging and declining birthrates for so many years. There are only two effective methods to put it plainly: first, capital expansion; second, immigration. Can China rely on immigration? Can the national will accept it? So don’t think about it. That is capital expansion. The example in the article is still Japan, which is also an old topic: overseas Japan, a semi-independent economy outside of Japan. Using the Japanese government’s ODA national loans as a driving force, and using Japanese multinational companies as a channel, it controls a large number of overseas markets, exports excess products and capital, and obtains high profits. The domestic benefits recovered every year are about 3% to 4% of GDP, which greatly reduces the financial pressure of Japan’s aging population. To be more straightforward, in an aging society, economic self-circulation is not established, and internal and external two-wheel drive are also for nothing, because your own population structure can no longer bear the burden of the aging population. Therefore, if we are aging, and if stimulating childbirth is no longer effective, we can only seek economic expansion. The older you are, the more you have to expand, otherwise your home will become a pressure cooker. Of course, the starting point of the article still hopes to return to the most original problem: birth. No matter how many methods an aging society has, it is also a dojo in a screw shell. Japan’s revolving movement is still so difficult. China has to do a long-term seesaw with the US imperialism. Those supplementary measures may not be able to support the balance point under the American imperial siege. Therefore, the article’s countermeasures are simply “capital expansion + improved distribution.” First, fully liberalize birth restrictions, nonsense; second, encourage childbirth, especially to solve the difficulties of women in pregnancy, childbirth, nursery school, and schooling. indeed. But this means that the country must increase its investment in public medical and education systems, and collect the current medical marketization and education marketization. Third, pay attention to savings. Be vigilant to prevent the savings rate from falling too quickly, and realize that consumption is never the source of growth. Wow, this is the central bank’s text? The speaking is very direct. indeed. Who dares to live in the debt economy? Bank card balance is the best condom; secondly, consumption is not investment, and it does not directly improve labor productivity. Economic growth is basically investment, and only by generating new or better capabilities can there be sustained growth. “Consumption is never the source of growth.” This sentence is actually quite serious. It conflicts with many current documents and deserves to be the central bank. Fourth, pension reform. There are a lot of words here, but the key is the one sentence, “Instant payment type is converted to savings type”, which means “you only spend as much as you have, don’t spend money on your own.” Of course, this sentence sounds easy, but it is actually extremely difficult, because it involves a lot of reforms that involve self-interest. The current pension is unsustainable, so if you adhere to the spirit of “spending as much as you have”, you will either give less money or work more. More “flexible” pension payment standards, and delayed retirement to receive pensions, are appropriate. Fifth, promote scientific and technological progress. What I’m talking about here is not about technology itself, but about the environment that promotes technological progress. First of all, we must go to some market access supervision (state-owned enterprises let some industries come out), secondly, we must have basic social security that tolerates losers (the personal bankruptcy system is doing it), and finally, we must control housing prices and don’t drive young people away. As for the sentence “emphasis on science and engineering education” is added here, “One of the reasons why Southeast Asian countries fall into the middle-income trap is that there are too many liberal arts students”, I think it is the author’s private goods. There are many liberal arts students in Southeast Asia because Southeast Asia does not have enough industrial systems to support the employment of science and engineering graduates. This is a spontaneous choice for the masses to adapt to the market. The signs of de-industrialization in China in recent years have not been accompanied by the transfer of the enthusiasm for science and engineering majors to financial and other service industries? There is also an obvious phenomenon of abandoning the profession after graduating from science and engineering in our country. Don’t you know the reason for the big brother arresting you? It is a bit unkind to use our poor liberal arts students to block guns. In short, it is a good article in general, and it is very sincere to understand the seriousness and urgency of the current population problem in China. But I am personally pessimistic about reversing the demographic trend, because it requires large-scale inland investment, Roosevelt’s New Deal, and a war mentality. However, our country is still focusing on stability and pursuing industrial upgrading in a peaceful state. A large amount of resources are still being concentrated in central cities in order to obtain the optimal allocation effect in a peaceful state. After five or six years, China’s aging has become a foregone conclusion. If you don’t actually take this path, then hope that the country will embark on the path of industrial expansion, and at least get enough overseas income to make up for it. If the new income can be used to maintain the middle fertility rate in some regions, it has been considered a success.

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