Housing prices in many countries rose last year, and many emerging markets performed strongly. According to data, Turkey’s house prices rose by 5.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, ranking first in the world, and the annual growth rate reached an astonishing nearly 30%. Nizamadine, chairman of the Istanbul Real Estate Association, introduced that the Turkish real estate market was still sluggish at the beginning of last year. In order to boost the economy, the bank lowered the loan interest rate in May last year. Subsequently, the real estate sales volume increased rapidly. A new high in history.

Experts pointed out that although Turkey’s house prices are rising steadily, the rate of increase in house prices cannot keep up with the rate of currency depreciation. In the past year, the lira has depreciated by nearly 24%. In March of this year, the exchange rate of the lira against the US dollar continued to fall. In addition, Turkey has implemented a loose monetary policy for a long time, and large-scale water release has led to soaring prices and inflation. Last year, Turkey’s inflation rate exceeded 14%.

Turkey has learned from the great experience in history, real estate speculation has made the country prosperous, and industry has misled the country. Therefore, Turkey’s house price rise is inevitable. As a big country with a long history, Turkey has a glorious past. If Turkey is to achieve its magnificent rejuvenation, the Turkish people must be struggling. As we all know, too low housing prices are not conducive to the struggle of young people. Therefore, Turkey’s housing prices have risen, benefiting the country and the people. The whole Turkish people welcome the increase in housing prices. After 30 years of hard work, they have exchanged for a house, so that the house they get will have a sense of satisfaction and life will be fulfilled. However, Ankara may not understand that while house prices are rising, young people in Turkey will struggle for houses in the early stage, but when they rise to a certain level, young people can’t afford them no matter how hard they work. At this time, house prices will cause people to avoid marriage and childbirth. , To reduce the fertility rate of the population. Rio de Janeiro is an example. Rio, Brazil is a city where housing prices have skyrocketed. Programmers in Rio can’t buy a house in Rio despite their annual salary of several hundred thousand, and they are retired at the age of 35, even though they are Rio people. But not many people can stay. In addition, the absolute number of newborns in Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo, has declined during the same period. While the economy is developing, the population has fallen. I don’t know if it is not worth the loss. The rise in housing prices will ultimately only make young people hopeful about Turkey’s future and feel sad about their future. Now many Indians in Brazil don’t want to work, but just want to lie flat, and Brazil also said that they are about to enter a labor shortage. Era. Perhaps Brazil can wait for the day of industrial upgrading, but I don’t know whether the day of industrial upgrading will come quickly or the day of labor shortage. Although the house price rise is good for Turkey as a whole country, it cannot last for long. Still have to consider the feelings of young Turkish people. Taking history as a mirror, if Ankara does not look at Brazil, then Brazil’s present is Turkey’s future.


By zhiwo

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5 months ago

The answer lies in the question. The lira has depreciated by 24% and house prices have risen by 30%. 0.76*1.3=0.988, the dollar-denominated price is basically down, not to mention the depreciation of the dollar itself. The Vietnamese dong will appreciate by 6% throughout 2020, and the Viet Cong said that house prices will rise by 11%. The statistics of the Viet Cong’s housing prices have always been conservative, so let’s just use this calculation for the time being. 1.06*1.11=1.18, the actual increase in Vietnam is at least 20 points higher than that of Turkey. What qualifications does Turkey have to top the list? The problem with Turkey is that the lira has depreciated severely. Money is gone, all commodities are rising, this kind of algorithm is meaningless. The forces outside Turkey want to cover it up.

5 months ago

It shows that the lives of the Turkish people are getting worse and worse, and wages cannot afford to buy a house, and even the days when it takes decades to buy a house are just around the corner. Young people in Turkey gradually lost confidence and lived a life of lying flat at home. Contrast this with our great China. Everyone is working hard to live, everyone is enjoying the dividends of the rise of great powers. In recent years, after our government’s unremitting efforts, housing prices have finally stabilized. Let every young man have a house to live and work, this is the best time. For example, during the recent May Day holiday, every migrant worker willingly worked for 6 days, and some even worked for 11 days in a row, so that they could spend as much as they could during the long holiday and contribute their meager strength to the motherland’s chicken fart. Such a sentimental and righteous young man is unmatched by young people in Turkey and the whole world. the above

5 months ago

Turkey now faces the same problems as Russia and Japan back then. Whether to protect asset (real estate) prices or protect foreign exchange, Turkey chooses the Russian model, protects property prices, abandons foreign exchange, and allows foreign exchange to continue to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. Because the foreign exchange rate is the anchoring frame of reference for the assets of the host country, countries that cannot hold foreign exchange will inevitably lose their asset prices in the long run. This can be seen from Russia. Although Russia has given up foreign exchange in order to protect real estate prices, the ruble has repeatedly depreciated against the US dollar. Real estate prices in Russia are just a game of drumming and spreading flowers under the local area network. Foreign exchange and assets can be used domestically and abroad. In the case of normal circulation, once the Russian economy is interconnected with the World Economic Wide Area Network, its housing prices are immediately beaten back to their original shape. To give an inappropriate example, although real estate prices remain high, international capital does not recognize the pricing value of real estate in Russia (because foreign exchange and assets cannot circulate freely), the Russian ruble has no purchasing power, and international capital is unwilling to be in Russia. Investment, if you use rubles to import goods that cannot be produced in Russia on the international market, the price will be extremely expensive. Therefore, real estate in Russia has not risen at the market exchange rate, not to mention the house cannot be used for food. From 2015 to 2019, China faces a cycle of strong U.S. interest rate hikes and the domestic real estate market and foreign exchange depreciation are under strong pressure. After the buffalo crash of the stock market in 2015, real estate took over the handover and continued to open the path of asset price increases. International capital The motivation to short China’s exchange rate was strong. At that time, capital outflows were severe, and the loss of foreign exchange reserves was measured in trillions of dollars (the central bank actively sold foreign exchange to buy RMB to maintain the RMB exchange rate). After losing a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, the renminbi exchange rate was finally stabilized, and the road to squeeze the bubble and lower the leverage was actively started, and the time bomb of high leverage in the property market was removed. Therefore, the stock market has been very bad in recent years. In 2018, the United States set off a trade war. It was precisely that China’s economy was undergoing a process of healing. It wanted to take advantage of the favorable situation of China’s economic weakness and take advantage of the weakness.

5 months ago

This belongs to the imported inflation of other countries triggered by the global release of water from the United States. When the water was released, my country was the most restrained. Basically, there was no release of water. In addition, it was slightly tightened later, and it basically returned to normal, which belonged to the normal loose range. This is because we implement foreign exchange control, not that the US dollar will come in if it wants to come in. Some time ago, I remitted money to my mainland bank card, and the bank actually called me to ask me the purpose of the remittance. I said I wanted to buy something, and the bank said I was not sincere and returned it. Although this kind of control is not convenient, it can indeed protect the domestic economy from the impact of imported inflation. After all, Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan are all harvested by the United States in this way. In terms of how to look at it, I don’t actually care about the lives of the people in Turkey, I am more concerned about the follow-up direction. Because the outbreak of imported inflation is not uniform. Translated into adult words, in theory, as long as the United States releases water, all countries in the world will have imported inflation. Even my country cannot be an exception. However, imported inflation does not occur at the same time in each country. Some countries are earlier. Some countries are late. Generally speaking, in the global supply chain system, those countries that provide raw materials and resource-exporting will explode earlier, and the time node of the outbreak in developed countries will be a little later. This will conduct layer by layer, and it will take a certain amount of time. The outbreak of imported inflation in Turkey is a signal. Translated into adult words, the United States harvesting the world is already on the agenda, and the sickle has been raised. Over time, inflation will be transmitted upwards along the global industrial chain. When the economic volume of the country with imported inflation can satisfy the appetite of the United States, it is the time for the sickle to be swung down. Therefore, we must be fortunate that our country has a policy of foreign exchange control, which has effectively maintained the stable environment of my country’s domestic economy to a certain extent, so that this imported inflation will not cause a great impact on us.

5 months ago

Judging from the current level of inflation in Turkey, the real increase in housing prices is far from that on paper. In February of this year alone, the Turkish Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 15.6% year-on-year. Housing prices are nothing more than a performance in the context of high inflation. In fact, not only has Turkey, since the epidemic, the global faucet of the Federal Reserve has not stopped water, the global emerging economies are generally facing huge inflationary pressures. This is because the economic structure of emerging economies is relatively simple, the domestic market is not large enough, and the dependence on foreign capital is high. Therefore, the ability to resist global inflation and currency changes is relatively weak. At the same time, since Erdogan took office, Turkey’s economic loose monetary policy has also led to an oversupply of currency. Since Erdogan took office, Turkey’s M2 has increased by an average of 23% per year. What is this concept? In recent years, the average annual growth rate of M2 in China is only about 8.5%, and the housing price problem has reached the current high level. Turkey’s M2 increase is nearly three times that of ours. Under flooding, rising housing prices are naturally inevitable. Under such circumstances, it is inevitable that Turkey’s capital outflow and increased pressure on the devaluation of the domestic currency will be unavoidable when the external environment is superimposed on the current Fed’s expectation of interest rate hikes. Therefore, the short-term rise in housing prices is nothing more than a carnival before the bubble burst. Once the Fed raises interest rates in the future and the global asset bubble bursts, Turkey’s economy will face a real crisis, and the consequences of years of flooding will be real. Show up.

5 months ago

They all talk about real estate development, looking at population in the long-term, land in the medium-term, and policies in the short-term. From the perspective of Turkey’s population growth and mobility, in 2019, the population of Turkey has increased by 17.2% compared to 2018. The population of Istanbul has reached 15 million, and about 200,000 people flow in each year. The most immigrant population is between 25-29 years old, and there is a very high demand for real estate purchases. Not to mention that the opening up of tourism after the epidemic will further boost the local rental market. We have reason to believe that in the next few years, the upward trend of Turkish house prices will remain unstoppable. Observing past data, the real reason for the surge in housing prices in Turkey is the change in Turkey’s citizenship by investment program. On September 18, 2018, Turkey promulgated a new immigration policy, reducing the US$1 million to US$250,000. Overseas investors can obtain Turkish status by purchasing real estate of more than US$250,000. From January to June 2019 alone, Turkish real estate sales data surged by 67%, of which 78%, about 13,325 cases, came from foreigners who were home buyers and investment immigrants. In January 2021, foreigners purchased a total of 2,675 properties from Turkey, and Istanbul sold 1,380, accounting for 51.6%, ranking first in the number of houses sold in each city. Chinese investors purchased 63 properties from Turkey, ranking 12th. name. Overseas investors are the main force in Turkish real estate. In order to obtain Turkish status, they directly drive the trend of Turkish housing prices. The strength of the Turkish passport is evident from this. In fact, if you just want to obtain a Turkish passport, there is a more cost-effective way of naturalization than buying a house, that is, real estate financing. Turkey’s real estate financing immigration is based on the bottleneck problem of house purchase immigration, such as the cumbersome real estate purchase procedure and the risk of selling new forms of immigration. Applicants only need to pay a one-time payment of tens of thousands of dollars to obtain a Turkish passport for the whole family. Compared with buying a house, the immigration procedure is simpler and cheaper.

5 months ago

Do you know why there has been a large-scale report on the skyrocketing housing prices in Turkey recently? Essentially there are two words: comfort. In recent years, the broadest masses of people have long suffered from the high housing prices, which is of course not good. Therefore, the media has to find a worse case, as long as there is a worse case, some people will be satisfied. Actually, what are the facts? Don’t have a hole in the sky! If one considers the depreciation of the Turkish lira in recent years, housing prices have actually fallen sharply. In the past 10 years, the exchange rate of the lira to the U.S. dollar is basically a 20% discount. In the past five years, the exchange rate of the lira to the U.S. dollar has also depreciated by more than 60%. The picture below shows the area with the highest housing prices in the Turkish capital, and its average price does not exceed 4000 liras/square meter. Since the exchange rate of lira to RMB is 0.78, that is to say, the most expensive place in the Turkish capital, the average housing price is only 3120 yuan/square meter. The core area is only 5,500 lire per square meter, which is only 4290 yuan/square meter. Let’s put it this way, if the average price of Beijing’s east and west urban areas is 5000, do you think it is high? Supplement: The capital of Turkey is indeed not the highest housing price. I will add two more pictures. In the country, the highest in Turkey is Mula, with an average maximum of 6,900 liras/square meter (approximately RMB 5,400/square meter); Istanbul’s housing prices are indeed the highest, peak value. It is about 13,500 liras/square meter (about 10,530 yuan/square meter); however, we should also note that the price increase in Istanbul over the past 4 years has been very small, and the increase in 2020 is much lower than that of the capital Ankara. Even if 1 lire is exchanged for 6 yuan, it is not more than 30,000 yuan per square meter. At the beginning of this year, the media speculated on the soaring housing prices in Seoul, South Korea. In fact, it was similar to the case of Turkey. The domestic media said that the housing prices in a foreign city rose by 80% in 10 years, and the annualized income was only 6%. Not as good as our previous ones. The annual P2P rate of return, here is not counting the foreign real estate holding costs. However, we scored twice in 08/15 and doubled in 2 years, or doubled nationally. The gold content of “this skyrocketing” and “the skyrocketing” are very different. Many people in China like to hold high marketing slogans and selectively release one-sided information to deceive people. For example: Why do Seoul housing prices soar? (Ignore the real pressure to buy a house in Seoul, the housing price-to-income ratio of others is 8.8, our national housing price-to-income ratio is 9.2, Shenzhen is over 40, and the housing price-to-income ratio in Sanya and Xiamen, Beijing and Shanghai is estimated to be no less than 30.) Japanese housing prices have not fallen in the past two decades. (Perfect to avoid the big collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble burst, now, the pressure of buying houses in Tokyo is only 1/2 of Shanghai). A few days ago, a friend consulted a new case, saying that someone on the Internet used St. Petersburg’s housing prices as an analogy to Xiamen, with the intention of comforting themselves that the real estate bubble in Xiamen was reasonable. (They are all coastal cities) Some people use the information gap to tell the people one-sided information with ulterior motives, thinking that foreign housing prices are in dire straits, so they intend to rationalize the real estate bubble in China. I have to say that this kind of marketing is very useful to the white crowd, but it is a joke in my eyes. Remember, if real estate fails, there is only one core: the aging of the population. The rest are scattered cards of leftovers, and the population is the king of bombing. The aging of the population not only affects real estate, but real estate is only a small role. The aging of the population will affect our country’s economy, politics, pension, culture and education in all aspects… It is estimated that in 16 years, many people bought Yanjiao because of news from Tongzhou Sub-center. What is the result? ? Those who have taken over in 20 years will make you happy for 1-2 years. Let’s take a look and see, many people don’t want to realize their lives. Regarding the judgment of real estate, my view remains the same. At present, whether it is the basic population or the needs of China’s economic development, real estate has come to the opposite of our country’s future and destiny. I will not change my judgment because of the madness of housing prices in certain cities, just as I will not change my long-term judgment because of the short-term rise and fall of certain stocks. Because the market is dominated by emotions in the short-term and has nothing to do with fundamentals, but long-term value must be based on fundamentals. Any judgment made based on short-term price fluctuations has a very low reference value. On the contrary, the fact that the current population structure changes drastically and the severe international situation makes me firmer in my judgment that it will happen with a high probability. When your mind is in chaos and you can’t find your way, returning to common sense is a shortcut. You just need to remember: throughout the ages, there is no unbreakable bubble. Throughout the ages, there is no such thing as a man who can conquer the sky. It is a power of science and technology, not a power of concrete. The main contradictions of my country’s real estate are summarized as follows (the latest succinct edition): The short-term main contradiction of the real estate industry lies in the contradiction between the eagerness of real estate companies to raise funds, the return of funds, and the state’s comprehensive prevention of funds from flowing into real estate. The main contradiction of the real estate industry in the medium term lies in the conflict between the slowdown of the real estate industry and China’s economic development, the transformation and upgrading of the industry, and the strategy of expanding domestic demand. The main long-term contradiction in the real estate industry lies in the contradiction that the aging population and the decline in fertility have caused the lack of receivers and the lack of support for real estate development. Important reminder: Please refer to the personal official account: Wukong Xinzhisuke for details of the 4D analysis of China’s real estate. Considering all aspects of China’s population, economy, policies, and the world’s structure, it may be the most comprehensive real estate analysis article in China. I know that I’m still too cautious. Recently, a new round of deletion of articles has been launched, which has caused inconvenience to everyone. , Please forgive me! I am currently updating a series of articles on the official account [Chinese city housing prices]. I currently write about Shenzhen, Wuhan, Tianjin, Xi’an, Xiamen, Qingdao, Changsha, Chengdu, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Jinan, Kunming, Nanning… (except for Beijing, the second-tier cities and above are basically covered). Next, we will analyze the real estate trends in typical Chinese cities. Welcome to read

5 months ago

Don’t take a look at how much the Turkish lira depreciated. Before the pneumonia, people’s housing prices did not drop. Turkey had been making military risks. It couldn’t stop. It went to war on three sides and went south to fight against Libya and the Russian army (and later won). The Mediterranean navy confrontation in the west, Syria hit Kurdish in the east, and pneumonia came to the economy. At the same time, the economy was hit hard, from fighting on three sides to fighting on all sides, northward formed a red-green alliance to quickly push Armenia (and the previous three games The combat comparison is modern warfare. The opponent has a complete national defense system, is organized, and mobilized. Soldiers obey the order to die. The army is deployed on the front line. The former Soviet Union, which is a city of land, air, field and air defense, burns more money than the previous ones. More terrifying) Just like this, do you think the lira can be better? It’s almost endlessly falling. Why did Egypt fire the governor of the central bank two days ago? Because he wants to raise interest rates to curb inflation. So you guess the price of Turkish houses has gone up or down if the lira plummeted

5 months ago

So do you know why housing prices in first-tier cities have risen so hard this year? Because all those with money in their hands are using this thing to carry currency depreciation. Don’t laugh at Turkey, everyone is the same, it’s just not that serious. This year’s prices can be seen, and prices have risen across the board! But people like us who don’t have any spare money, don’t care, I don’t have any money, so why are you cutting my leeks. Turkey’s economic problems are not recent. They have appeared long ago, and the United States has already stated clearly that they will use U.S. dollars to harvest in Turkey! We had to send a lot of packages to Turkey every month last year. In recent months, there has been almost nothing to send out packages over there! Because our prices are in U.S. dollars, the Turkish currency is depreciated, and Turkey has to add 20% tax! In other words, Turkish residents are double harvested by the United States and their own country. . The more miserable batch is simply cruel and inhumane!

5 months ago

Everything in the world can be classified as investment, whether it is love or marriage. I used to think of nothing but hard work and nothing but gain, but now I can’t wait for nothing but hard work and very rewarding. Currency depreciation and price growth are too difficult. The main reason is the excessive US dollar issuance and Turkey’s unfavorable response to the Turkish currency devaluation and inflation. Unless Turkey’s foreign policy makes major changes, it will be the next Argentina. . ​

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