I have always felt that the ban on Taiwanese pineapples has a great impact on Taiwan, after all, the mainland accounts for 97% of sales.
It is understood that about 7% of the pineapples produced in Taiwan each year are sold to the mainland market, but they account for 90% of Taiwan’s total export pineapples. According to statistics from the island department, Taiwan exported 45,621 tons of fresh and refrigerated pineapple last year, with an output value of about NT$1.64 billion (about 380 million yuan). Among them, Taiwan exported 41,661 tons of fresh and refrigerated pineapples to the mainland, with an output value of about NT 1.49 billion (about 350 million yuan), accounting for about 91% of the total export value. Secondly, it exported 2160 tons to Japan, 1186 tons to Hong Kong, 421 tons to Singapore, and a small amount of pineapples to Canada, Macau, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea.
So how much impact will the mainland’s ban on pineapples have on Taiwan?
I’ve been in high spirits for more than a year. I remembered my old duty. The agricultural product market is different from other markets, and the fresh agricultural product market is even more different. How different is it? The market supply exceeds the consumption power by a little bit, and the whole market will be chaotic. Suddenly there is an 11% increase in supply, so some people still think that the impact on the Taiwan market is not large enough? The Taiwan market itself is still a very small single market, rather than a complex market with a vast geographic area and a consumer population of more than one billion. For example, if you can’t sell pineapples in Tainan, it’s a virtue to bring them to Taipei. Whether you can’t sell them or you can’t sell them. The mainland market is different. Sichuan’s citrus is not selling well. Great Wonderland, Qinghai, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang. The geographical area is vast, the demand is different, there is always a place where you can find a market. Manual market regulation is powerless, so it can only rely on the “invisible hand”.
I don’t know what the upper limit of the Taiwanese market’s artificial adjustment capacity for a single agricultural product is pineapple, but according to the data of the past few days, 11% of pineapple sales are also more than 40,000 tons.
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It’s spread to Taiwan’s 24 million permanent residents, and one person eats 1.75 kilograms of pineapple. Of course, it’s not too much for a year. If you bite your teeth, you will eat it, but if you eat too much, it’s a bit heartburning. It is estimated that Taiwan’s dentistry business will be more prosperous next year. This wave and this wave are good for Colgate. People are okay, the market is hard to say. The market is a little bitch. Everyone who has done sales knows that if you waited on her carefully, she suddenly collapsed; you slapped two slaps on the side, and she slapped you up. The same is true in China’s domestic market, which often inexplicably gives you a wave of large price fluctuations, such as the “Garlic You Ruthless” and “Ginger You Army” incidents that many people remember. How much is the actual out of stock? Less than 3%. A shortage of less than 3% is enough to cause a price increase of more than 30%, and even directly double the price in some areas. So what kind of market fluctuations this wave of 11% sudden oversupply will cause, let’s wait and see. Although the “invisible hand” was invisible, it was not at all ambiguous when he raised his face. In normal years, as shipments to the mainland increase year by year, it is conceivable that many people have invested in this product. Pineapple is not Chinese cabbage or broccoli. Its maturity cycle is more than a year, which is not the same as vegetables that can be shipped within a few months. I don’t know how to grow pineapple. It doesn’t seem to be something that can be quickly converted anyway. This time it is estimated that many pineapple growers will jump their feet. I also know that if they jump their feet, most of them will be led by that group of politicians to the “strong country duck tyrant” routine, but there are too many lice and debts, and it is not bad for him. But the changes in investment psychology caused by this cannot be ignored. Immediately after a series of planting industries that are closely related to the mainland will feel the chill, capital will be more cautious in the cultivation of these products, even if the mainland does not take any measures here, the capital investment will also be more cautious. What’s more, has the mainland said that no further measures will be taken? Have it? no? In short, it is not appropriate to say “not much harm and extremely insulting”. It should be said, “The direct harm is not great, the indirect harm is extremely strong, and it is full of insults.” What’s more, who said this is just a pineapple matter? Can the local market trade in New Taiwan dollars, the foreign market trade in RMB, and the foreign market trade in US dollars. Can this affect the same? You traded 89% of the pineapples on Taiwan Island in New Taiwan Dollars. That’s because you are playing internally. Selling is also New Taiwan Dollars, and buying is also New Taiwan Dollars. This pulls out 11% of pineapple transactions that are settled in renminbi and US dollars, which is considered foreign exchange.