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There are four normative premises. The first is that people are residents of mainland China. The second is in the 21st century. The year is defined as 2020. The year in 1980 is defined as the third in 1980. Technology is defined as the fourth that can be put into large-scale commercial use. Object is defined as the assumption that the interviewee’s subjective cognition far exceeds the current engineering practice level. There is a supplementary condition, which is to allow the question to be examined from multiple different social roles. If the person in 1980 is a bachelor of 1977.1978.1979.1980 For students/graduate students, the answer is: there is basically no small or small affiliated organization in the Chinese academic circle. This organization is generally responsible for the collection and sorting of scientific and technological information. At that time, China’s scientific and technological information was basically circulated internally. Have the student status, work permit or letter of introduction of the academic unit. These scientific and technological information not only involve advances in cutting-edge fields, but also generally involve conventional advances in the industrial field. For example, take the 12306 ticketing system of the Ministry of Railways. If you are a student of a university affiliated to the Ministry of Railways, you can basically learn from the library when you read scientific and technological information magazines that in 1980, the All-Suzhou Railway Transportation Science Research Institute had done four or five. The “Express -2 (ЭКСПРЕСС-2)” ticketing system was developed in 2015. This system can realize all-terminal networked ticket sales on the entire Soviet Union. Passengers can purchase railway tickets that will arrive in the next 45 days from the terminal at the station. This system was put into production in 1982, so for college students in 1980, something like 12306 is not a science fiction at all, at best it is an engineering problem constrained by material conditions. If it is for the defense industry, there is nothing sci-fi. The handheld GPS terminal is a technically content thing in 1980. It is still a little far away from sci-fi. In 1980, GPS was allowed for civilian use, and in 1982, the Soviet Union. The GLONASS system began to be networked like nuclear thermal rocket engines that now look quite sci-fi. The United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in the 1960s, and all engineered products have come out of automated command systems? Yes, the research and development of the Soviet army’s maneuvering, light, and air began as early as 1980. By 1980, the long-range early warning radar network and the establishment of a unified and centralized missile early warning system in the Soviet Union were almost completed. . You must know that the Arpanet in the United States was from the 1970s. The Internet and informatization are far less sci-fi. As for what digital country, the digital government is compared with Kitov and Grushkov’s Cyber ​​Soviet Union. Kitov, director of the Computing Center of the Soviet Ministry of Defense, was considering the automation of Soviet planned economic management in 1957. Rushkov went further and directly proposed the establishment of a unified economic control and information exchange system across the Soviet Union, which was in the 1960s. To be crazy, people are much crazy than Baidu, Sina, and Ali. They are trying to establish a direct data link from the headquarters of the State Planning Commission (Moscow) to any machine tool (production line), and Industry 4.0 is nothing more than this. If it is really done, I believe that Lubyanka’s basement will really become the highest place in the whole Soviet Union, because there can really see every move of the whole Soviet Union with the help of Grushkov. Grushkov died in 1982. Many years before his death, he predicted that a hand-held information terminal and paperless reading and paperless office were all his visions in the 1970s. To be honest, for college students at the time, as long as they borrowed scientific and technological information journals, they would learn about these things, which is not unusual at all. If we talk about spaceflight, then after the Cold War, it is simply a big shame. Salute series space stations are things from the 1960s. Diamond series military space stations are things from the 1970s. Not only are they in the sky but also armed with Saturn. 5 is something from the 1960s, Energy. It’s something from the 1980s, and the Soviet Blizzard started drawing in the early 1980s. The Blizzard also carried an AL31, which all began to evolve into aerospace aircraft. None of them surpassed the cognition of Beihang and China Southern Airlines in 1980. Even in the Soviet Union, in the 1970s, it was optimistic that a Mars base station could be established in 2000. Is the human base station on Mars completed in 2000? Not to mention the energy field. The Soviet fast breeder reactor BN600 started operating in 1980. The current fourth-generation Russian nuclear power BN1200 and BN600 have a direct evolutionary relationship in technology. Is it science fiction? I don’t think that engineering thermophysics all over the country think it’s science fiction, even in 1980. At most, the engineering is very difficult, but it is definitely not up to the level of science fiction where theoretical explorations such as starship fusion reactors and warp engines are still a mess. So this problem is essentially a problem of poor information. One is the difference in the amount of information and the other is the time difference. If the subject of the survey is a scholar who eats commercial food, there is nothing sci-fi, like many second generations born in the 90s have computers at home. There are mobile phones before elementary school. Mobile phones and computers are nothing unusual. If the target is farmers in the rural areas of northern Shaanxi in 1980, then the light telephones upstairs and downstairs are a bit sci-fi.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

I don’t know if the current geology students still need to hold a handheld GPS when they are in the undergraduate field practice, look for a strong satellite signal everywhere in the ravine, and report the longitude and latitude that has been stabilized on the black LCD screen for a long time. Then, on the paper high-precision topographic map, find the point where you are based on the latitude and longitude coordinates, and draw the stratum information just measured. This scene is less than fifteen years away from now. Because now the mobile phone is turned on and the electronic map software opens the satellite image mode, you can immediately know where you are on the earth, and the signal is particularly stable, and the positioning is generally accurate. As long as you know how to compare the satellite or topographic map on the screen, Align with the paper high-precision topographic map at hand, then the location is clear at a glance. Every time I use an electronic map to locate in the mountains, I always think of my experience of getting lost in the mountains many years ago-standing on the top of a 600-meter mountain, unable to find the right way down the mountain, and the sky is getting late. At that time, I was still holding a candy bar phone, and only one friend’s early smartphone had a Google Earth installed on it. So we opened it, found Beijing, and then found the mountainous area where we were based on the terrain, and then made a simple triangulation based on the surrounding scenery and nearby hills to determine our position on the satellite image, and then we found the correct and unobstructed one. Downhill direction. And now, I can directly follow the navigation mindlessly in the mountains that are not too remote. If I think about the explosion of my first time using Google Earth in 2004, I always think it’s sci-fi-it’s much more interesting than going out without money.

7 months ago

In addition to lamenting technological progress, this question can also be used to exaggerate science fiction. “Encounter” by Liu Wenyang. The writing time is about 95-00 years, which is the youth of people in 1980. The theme is online dating, which is the kind of common “so-called online dating of the Matrix in the future era when humans liked 1G of computer memory at that time”. It seems that I didn’t guess the future right. But the theme of this article is that only when the protagonist and the girl fall in love online, they are each other’s dream lovers, which has nothing to do with the reality of the two. The ending is probably that the protagonist reluctantly returns to the real world to do something (probably similar to a business trip to a remote area now), and finally meets a girl in reality. This girl is not ugly and the conditions are not bad. If you remember correctly, you should She is a young beauty in the passerby level (6.5-7 points) running. The protagonist also didn’t feel that Yy was disillusioned (why isn’t she a 9-point girl), but felt that the fate of the two was disillusioned. The encounter between the two in reality is very boring, and there is nothing to say. Then the protagonist returned to the Internet again, and the two once again became a soul mate who had nothing to say, and was destined to be in a previous life. Of course, they could also be 100% VR sex mates. I feel that I have seen the voice of 90% of my colleagues holding smartphones, and of course I am the same. By the way, what is one of the most worrying things of a modern person who really travels to remote areas? Of course, the phone has no signal. I had to take it, and the writer died young from cancer, RIP.

7 months ago

Let me give you a technique that I was shocked and stunned. No, no, it’s not a smart phone. The person who played with my father’s sony palm in elementary school said that he knew that it would add a communication module to turn it into a mobile phone, but he didn’t expect that the pen would be removed… it’s segway. This technology that has been reduced to a children’s toy by using a gyroscope to achieve dynamic balance of the car body was blown up in magazines at the beginning of this century. ​It’s really amazing. The built-in precision solid-state gyroscope is used to judge the body’s posture state, and after the appropriate instructions are calculated by the precision and high-speed central processing unit, the motor is driven to achieve the effect of balance. Suppose we use the longitudinal axis of the overall center of gravity of the driver standing on the vehicle and the vehicle as the reference line. When this axis is tilted forward, the built-in electric motor in the Segway body will generate forward force. On the one hand, it balances the torque of the person and the car falling forward, and on the other hand, it generates acceleration for the vehicle to move forward. On the contrary, when The gyroscope finds that when the driver’s center of gravity is tilted backward, it will also produce a backward force to achieve a balance effect. Therefore, as long as the driver changes the angle of his body to lean forward or backward, he will move forward or backward according to the direction of the tilt, and the speed is proportional to the degree of the driver’s body tilt. Five gyroscopes were installed in the first generation of segway~ this thing was a completely black technology for people in 1980. And unlike the smart phone, it is just a delicate toy without network support. The self-balancing car can shock everyone in 1980. Because they can easily understand how it works, and then be overwhelmed by the ingenuity of technology. Things that are accustomed to daily appear suddenly in a weird to incredible way, using understandable technology but it is completely impossible to manufacture with contemporary technology. This is not sci-fi~ what else is sci-fi? Segway is the kind of product that was completely unimaginable before it was invented. Forty years ago, people would rather believe that hovercraft were popular than that two-wheeled vehicles could achieve self-balancing, just like before the invention of elevators, people would rather believe that single-person aircraft was popular than that they could use a steel cable to pull a room. Small houses come to realize the same as skyscrapers. Yes, it is the first product invented in our century that conforms to the elevator effect. When I read it in a magazine when I was a kid, I really thought I was reading a science fiction magazine. And that is already a thing of the 21st century.

7 months ago

GPT3 is a super huge artificial intelligence language model equivalent to one percent of the human brain. It can generate fluent English articles by itself, can automatically generate reports, can conduct human-computer dialogue, can read comprehension, and solve common sense problems. It can even be used to automate programming. There are also some mathematical artificial intelligence models. Humans do imo, which is the question of the International Mathematical Olympiad. The highest score is probably around 95 points. Artificial intelligence is around 98 points. If there are too many people, continue to write.

7 months ago

Can linguists imagine how uncomfortable and struggling it would be to do acoustic phonetics research without Praat? The first official version of Praat appeared in the new millennium in 2001, which is only 20 years away. To make a simple analogy, now remove Praat from your tool library. Do you know how to measure the fundamental frequency? Do you know how to obtain a spectrogram? Do you know how to measure a series of variables such as spectral tilt, harmonic-to-noise ratio HNR, and spectral center of gravity CoG? If you do a perception experiment, do you know how to create your n-step stimuli without using Praat?

7 months ago

There is a browser in every app, and even every app has become an operating system. Let alone 40 years ago, when they first appeared a few years ago, I felt that science fiction, the first reaction was: “Too xx wave urged”, oh no, it is “too xx sci-fi” and the server operating system repeatedly nests dolls, deploying applications can also be deployed with the operating system, very sci-fi. It also takes hundreds of megabytes to write a Hello World page, and countless small files rely on this kind of thing, which is also very sci-fi

7 months ago

Look at the technological predictions of the last century. People are always so optimistic about the future of technology and overestimate the speed of technological development. In fact, almost none of the above has been achieved, nor will it be achieved in the foreseeable future. People who have traveled from 1980 to the present, the most likely idea is: Well, what about the average life expectancy of 140 years? What about landing on Mars? Can’t even cure cancer? Your technology will be too hip in 2021, right?

7 months ago

smart phone. In the 1980s, I only read similar things in Ni Kuang’s science fiction novels. Nothing else feels sci-fi. For example, the popular Internet of Things and smart homes have actually existed before the 1980s-but they were still called “industrial automation” at that time. Electric cars have also existed for a long time, but they are only used for industrial purposes, such as electric flat cars on railways. Most of today’s technology products are things that existed before the 1980s, nothing more than more advanced. Only the mobile phone is real 6. When I bought the first mobile phone, it really felt like I had entered the future society from primitive society all at once.

7 months ago

To be honest, there are not many, mainly in the field of communication and personal smart devices. Videophone was already a consensus in the 1980s. Everyone knows that it will be used sooner or later. It is no longer technically an illusion. Smart technology is similar, everyone is even waiting for the robot butler to enter the house, but the reality is that smart hardware is still very mentally handicapped to this day. The traffic has basically remained the same. The Chinese have all driven in the car and boarded the plane. This is economic progress. In terms of aerospace, go backwards. The Americans are going to return to the moon, and the Mars rover is not a science fiction. In terms of entertainment, video games existed in the early 1980s, and Director Ao turned out those terrifying works of early wisdom. Today’s video game products cannot be said to be science fiction. In terms of biotechnology and physiological research, cancer is still incurable, and AIDS has increased. The virus is raging. Gene editing just saw the door. Literature and art collapsed. The movie cg technology is good, but it can’t be called science fiction. It has everything that should have been in the 80s, but the effect is not enough. In short, technological progress is obvious, but it has not surpassed the field of vision of human beings. Science fiction really can’t talk about it. It’s amazing at best. Compared with the lunar base in the 1980s, space mining, strong artificial intelligence, fusion applications, gene therapy, and industrialization of food production should be regarded as science fiction. Relative to today: Quantum computers, alien civilization detection, genetic modification and recombination, Martian immigration, space factories, unlimited energy can be considered science fiction, right?

7 months ago

For an 80-year-old person, there is no technology that can be “excited, admired, or kneeling.” Basically no. At least at the “product” level on the market. Basically, people born after 80 years should not feel “kneeling.” At most, this product improves the previous complicated operation. The function of any product is placed in front of the post-75s and 80s. These functions can be “analogized” with that year, and there are even multiple analogies. Under this analogy, a logical chain can be formed. Fully understand the essence behind its “design”, or the working principle. Of course, the principle is strengthened by the teacher the day after tomorrow. The trickier thing is the post-50s. When they know new things, they cannot make any analogies. This is the generation gap. Once there is no analogy, it cannot be logically stipulated. When the operation process of the ipad cannot be compared with past experience, and straightforwardly cannot be compared with transplanting rice and feeding pigs. You can only recite the “up, down, left, right, left, and right BABA”. You can’t explain it at all, “you can’t connect to the Internet, you need to turn on wifi”. Although “turn on” can be compared with “switch lights”. But wifi can never explain the analogy relationship with these people. Unless he understands radio. In fact, they can’t be connected if they are online or not, they can only be connected to 404. Unless they understand that the phone is blocked. Therefore, generally speaking, it can be solved after a generation. Because scientific invention is actually an improvement on the complicated labor of this generation. The previous generation can definitely find an analogy. Direct GG after the second generation.

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