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History always has the same rhyme, but it is the essence where it is not completely similar. Although China is a practitioner of the development model of the East Asian model, China does have some differences from Japan and South Korea; when it is Japan/Korea When the natural population growth rate dropped to about 1,000, their total factor productivity almost peaked. In fact, the high point of the Republic’s TFP (after PPP) was around 2017. After Japan and South Korea burned the demographic dividend, it was the final fireworks curtain call. So a basic assumption should be that if we did not walk out of the same path as Japan and South Korea, then our TFP would almost reach its peak. Considering that the population growth rate will slow down in the future, the currency growth rate will slow down, which means. For the global economy to continue to maintain the previous growth rate, there must be the following two possibilities. China’s technological development is beyond expectations. Besides China, there can be a country to top the gap after China’s economic locomotive slows down. So the road ahead seems to be there. The following are 1, the global economy has since slowed down, and the growth of 2% is expected to be in the mirror. 2. The global economy has maintained its growth rate, and China’s technological development has exceeded expectations. 3. The global economic growth rate has maintained, but there is a new global economic engine. Simply thinking about this issue from an economic point of view, you will feel very powerless, because these three possibilities all correspond to a future, and it seems that they are not unreasonable and all possible. But just like Dario’s prescription for the Weimar Republic (to balance inflation and deflation in the economy), this vacuum spherical chicken concept is not valid, because economy, or finance, is not an independent kingdom by nature. It is closely related to internal affairs and diplomacy, and many economically feasible policies are completely infeasible in internal affairs and diplomacy. For example, in international politics, there are often three kinds of theoretical realism, liberal constructivism, among which constructivism is like the Austrian school in my eyes, belonging to the emptiness that does not consider the bias-variance trade off at all. Pull the model complexity to a maximum, and then ignore the bias, and often make some accurate and wrong predictions (for example, the Austrian school believes that the Chinese economy will stagnate after 2008…) The abscissa is the model is complex Degrees and ordinates are model errors. Models that are too complicated and too simple are sand sculptures. So for most of humanity, our international politics are hovering in realism and liberalism. They are like this; world politics is not difficult to find If a country’s economic growth rate is rising, then it is more likely to adopt liberalism, and if a country’s economic growth rate is declining, then it is more likely to adopt realism. This actually explains the difference in diplomatic paradigm between China and the United States in the past period of time. However, the key question is, is there really room for the current economic growth rate to continue to slide towards realism? A simple question, if you think that China’s economic growth rate will not meet expectations in the future, can we use realism to construct a relatively balanced environment? If you think the U.S. economy is growing a little bit lower than it is today, can they create a safer environment than it is now? Here comes the classic problem. If one country pursues absolute security, it will be absolutely insecure for another country. The tragedy is that if these two countries are the world’s largest and second largest countries, and they have no military strength. The generational gap is very troublesome. So many times, I really don’t have a good impression of Trump. Institutionalized peace and prosperity, and global cooperation are China and the United States. In the current economic environment, they are almost the only options. This means that if the population decreases, then the future with nothing to make up for is very bleak, so this also means that most countries will try to avoid this possibility, at the cost of some paradigm shift. If we fail, our best outcome may be to be able to construct a relative balance of power, similar to the Cold War security competition. And even this is not easy. This leads us to the second possibility. If China’s science and technology breakthrough exceeds expectations, then an economic growth rate will recover, a globalized future may be waiting for us, and a world in which the population is declining but artificial intelligence has filled the output gap will emerge. In fact, this future may not be as terrible as everyone thinks, because you can think of artificial intelligence as an immigrant that does not produce ethnic conflicts…Most immigrant countries are actually alive and well. But to be honest, although the Republic needs technological breakthroughs more than ever, this thing is not what you want. Therefore, we still have a third possibility that the global economic growth rate is expected to maintain, but a new country needs to stand up; Macro Markets global credit pulse. This means that when China has three counter-cycles in 2008-20, if we maintain Social financing and GDP match, so the credit pulse, the indicator of social financing/GDP, will inevitably not rise…We need a new country to take on this responsibility. Who wants to increase leverage? Who can increase leverage? If it is observed that the United States has basically had no credit stimulus in the past 15 years, in fact, the United States and a series of developed countries are very likely to stimulate credit in this cycle, using all possible means. The credit stimulus will bring about a classic cycle. This cycle can help everyone understand Dario’s famous saying: Keep nominal GDP growth above nominal interest rates. Whether it is a country, a company, or an individual, we all have assets. The balance sheet, and our balance sheet can be divided into two types according to maturity, short-term and long-term, so we have short-term liabilities, short-term assets and long-term liabilities. Long-term assets and short-term insolvency are called liquidity crisis, and long-term insolvency is called repayment. Sexual crisis. Responding to the liquidity crisis is simple. When short-term assets <short-term liabilities, inject cash short-term assets + cash = short-term liabilities + new long-term liabilities. The problem is that cash is not interest-bearing, but liabilities will (of course, negative interest rates) And zero interest rates will help, but there are currently few long-term zero interest rates for companies/individuals) So after a period of time, when short-term liabilities become long-term liabilities, at the same time, for convenience, assume that short-term assets become long-term assets. The result after long-term assets + cash investment <long-term liabilities + interest on long-term liabilities This is the solvency crisis. This is when the Fed resolved the liquidity crisis in November 1929, and encountered a solvency crisis in the summer of 1930. When the liquidity crisis was lifted in 2008, the European sovereign solvency crisis broke out in 2011. And the reasons for countless similar examples. The only way to avoid this is if your cash growth rate is faster than the growth rate of long-term debt interest. This means that the rate of return on your cash investment is higher than the interest on debt. This is why the ratio of nominal GDP to nominal interest rates is so critical. This is also what the Fed is currently trying to do, not to raise interest rates rashly until inflation has confirmed its response. And if this assumption is true, if the United States and developed countries need to undertake new credit stimulus tasks, then they must ensure that their nominal GDP is above the nominal interest rate, which means that their doves will continue for a long time. Thinking about it this way, Kuroda’s words yesterday are actually very ambitious; to sum up, when China, as the world’s largest economic brighter in the past 20 years (the second is the United States), gradually embarks on the end of the traditional development path, we can have three This path corresponds to China’s technological renaissance in the future with negative global interest rates. Artificial intelligence + technological development is equivalent to bringing cheap immigration to China. Fiscal stimulus in developed markets exceeds expectations. Considering the reality of domestic and foreign affairs, I think the first possibility Sex is actually not big, if it happens, it is actually very catastrophic; the second possibility is unknown and unpredictable; therefore, the third possibility is actually underestimated before the second possibility cannot be confirmed. A little calculation, considering that China’s GDP after PPP is about 125% of that of the United States and the European Union, if China’s credit pulse this year rolls over 12 months from 36-37 trillion yuan last year to 28-31 trillion yuan, then roughly A reduction of 6-8% of GDP means that Europe and the United States must produce an impulse of about 10% of GDP. If one person has half of it, each person needs about 5%. Then the actual credit stimulus that the United States needs this year is actually 1 Trillion. The current US fiscal stimulus is 1.8 Trillion (it is a bit insufficient to spread to 4-5 years or even 8-10 years), but there is no difference in order of magnitude, considering the amount of 0.75 Trillion in the Eurozone. In fact, this round of fiscal stimulus in Europe and the United States is in place. So what is the ending of this one? The liquidity crisis takes the solvency crisis, and the solvency crisis is often followed by depreciation. The gold standard was abandoned in 1933, and the euro depreciated for a long time after 2008. This is why I have always felt that although China, as the leader of the global economy in the past, has slowly slowed down its economic growth, the logic of bearish inflation is still dangerous. People who are bearish on inflation do not fully understand that when a solvency crisis occurs, if your currency value is strong and inflation expectations fall, it is actually a precursor to war.

zhiwo

By zhiwo

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helpmekim
7 months ago

It is worth mentioning that from the figure above, we can see that the total number of actual births in the entire 00s is more than 10 million less than the previous estimate by the Bureau of Statistics based on the birth rate. In 2020, my country’s population will continue to grow. The information that can be drawn is that the number of births is greater than the deaths. This is certain, because according to the difference between the number of births and deaths of the Bureau of Statistics of more than 4 million in 2019, the number of births in 2020 cannot be directly less than the number of deaths in any case. But the question is, is the actual birth population in the 10s, like the 00s, overall less than the estimate? If it is indeed less than the estimate, even if my country’s population continues to grow as of 2020, the total population is likely to never exceed 1.4 billion. What’s more, if the estimated 14.65 million births in 2019 are all overestimated, the number of births and deaths in 2020 will be very close, and the death crossover within three years is a sure thing. So the current situation is that everyone knows that the population is growing in 2020, but how much has it increased? What is the total population actually? How many years can population growth continue? What is the proportion of each birth in the birth population? According to the proportion of each birth, will there be a more serious cliff-like decline in the birth population in the future? There are also gender ratio and Gini coefficient…

heloword
7 months ago

Non-announcement is also a kind of announcement. After finishing the final exam, the teacher said that the results would be available in a week. After asking about it two weeks later, the child refused to speak and called the school teacher. The head teacher said that it is understood that the final exam is the city’s joint exam. The amount of data is large and needs to be processed, but your child has grown in general. The transcript was sent down to see that it was ten points lower than the last final exam. I called again to ask the teacher. It turned out that the child reported wrong grades at the end of last semester. The school said that we should continue to implement the spirit of the important speech of the Ministry of Education, strengthen organization and leadership, maintain a consistent state of learning, ensure that the hearts of the people are not scattered, the work is continuous, the order is not chaotic, the beginning and the end, we should continue to strive, and continue to grasp historical results Summing up and revising the work, do a good job in home-school communication, soothing emotions and other follow-up work. We always take the promotion of harmony in family life and the promotion of children’s performance as the center of our work, and we will make unremitting efforts to send children to key schools!

helpyme
7 months ago

From a purely mathematical point of view, as long as ≥ 1 is considered growth. In terms of modern computing power, the delay in publishing is certainly not because some data has not been sorted out. From a linguistic point of view, “as far as I know” means that the news publisher does not know the specific situation and has not obtained first-hand data, but rough information obtained from other departments or individuals. The publisher does not have full confidence in the information and is not prepared to be fully responsible for it. But the publisher is the Bureau of Statistics itself, which is very interesting.

sina156
7 months ago

I don’t know why my knowledge of mathematics is always promoted in the social news, just like in the news of housing prices, preventing high housing prices, preventing high housing prices from continuing to rise, and preventing the trend of excessively rising housing prices. The society is indeed the best university. The concept of derivative that was once confused in school suddenly became clear. From the announcement of specific population figures to the announcement that the population continues to grow, I have learned from image to abstraction, from quantitative to qualitative. Today’s young generation really enjoys a happy and confident new era. The waves are one after another, covering thousands of undercurrents, walking together like a stranger, chanting and admiring Qu Chaotianque. The seeds of the manuscript of “Flower Swelling” are often buried in the ground in a round shape, and then a touch of sprouts protrudes, a bit of green is bathed in the sun, the roots are buried in the soil, although there is no complaint underneath, because the sprout absorbs The power of the sun represents the hope of the future, the power that drags the growth of the entire plant, the huge root system, the small buds, the burst of spring thunder, the power of life. The moment when the flowers bloom has changed. The flowers are so big, the stems are drooping, and the roots are drained, but the flowers are still going on, and it will bear fruit. The new life does not need to care about the old death. Think about the good days are still to come.

yahoo898
7 months ago

Great, I knew it! I knew that the population was still growing, and it hadn’t come when the population crisis had occurred. I know that our economic growth is still huge, and the demographic dividend can continue to be enjoyed. I know that the population report two days ago was alarmist. How can there be so many response policies to be implemented? We are obviously still healthy now, and it is recommended that the researchers who “represent personal speech” be expelled. Brother Tong is finally about to announce the results, you don’t know how everyone came over this time, crying. This time you can justly say to your parents: Don’t rush, have children a few years later.

leexin
7 months ago

Post-90s are less than post-80s, post-00s are less than post-90s, and post-10s are even less than post-00s. So as long as the number of births is greater than the number of deaths that year, the total population will continue to grow. But what about the growth rate? The growth rate has continued to decline. This is the same as the physical acceleration drops but the speed can keep increasing. But while the total number continues to grow, it is based on changes in the structure of the population pyramid. That is to say, the number of young people continues to decrease, while the population of middle-aged and elderly people continues to increase. When the shape of the pyramid becomes less and less like a pyramid, there is a problem. The pyramid is moving from an equilateral triangle to a rhombus, and it is likely to become an inverted triangle in the future. Even if the total number is still growing, is the structure of this inverted triangle stable? Everyone knows.

greatword
7 months ago

The Tacitus effect has already formed on the population issue. No matter whether the Statistics Bureau announces it tomorrow or next year, whether the published data is increasing or decreasing, it has lost its credibility. Especially in modern society, everyone is observing society and forming their own judgments regardless of the media and self-media. It is recommended that you do not pay too much attention to the population issue. The result of too much attention is like the Gini coefficient and may not be announced in the future.

loveyou
7 months ago

That’s it. Starting from the preschool age, we have a certain knowledge of statistics in junior high school, and a certain calculus knowledge in high school. This generation is not easy to fool. Growth, one person more than the number of births is also called growth-so how many more people are born than the number of deaths? What is the natural growth rate? How about the drop in birth rate? What about sex ratio at birth? The generation of baby boomers after the founding of the People’s Republic of China is approaching life expectancy. Those baby boomers are more than 20 million a year… Now what I want to know is the distribution of age groups, the proportion of the labor force, and the proportion of marriageable age. They are all objective data, and there is almost no calculation pressure. It is really impossible to post the original data. The calculations are accurate and fast.

strongman
7 months ago

This sentence is very interesting and reflects the profoundness of Chinese culture. To borrow Trump’s words, no one understands popularization better than the grassroots. The above professional but weak ability to connect with reality. The outside experts just don’t know how to pretend to understand nonsense. To be honest, if it is said that the census data shows that seven people are more than six people, it is very likely that the population will keep growing. But the issue of population growth in 2020 is worth studying. 1. How did the population data of our country come from? The population data has three calibers. One is the statistical caliber of the Health and Family Planning Commission, which is based on the birth and death data of the health system and the civil affairs. One is the standard of public security, based on changes in household registration. One is the statistical caliber, based on the usual sampling calculations and the decennial population census. The natural population growth rate published by the statistical system is actually the data of the Health and Family Planning Commission. Therefore, we said that the issue of population policy has nothing to do with the Bureau of Statistics. The Bureau of Statistics is Wan Nian’s Back Pot Man. There is a problem here. Now because the conditions are good and the child needs a birth certificate for enrolling in the household registration, the birth data is very accurate. But apart from this census, it is impossible for any department to pinpoint the death toll. Because in rural China, when some people die, they don’t go to the hospitals of the health system, the crematoriums of the civil administration system, and the police stations of the public security system to cancel their households. (Insert a digression, some people say that Renpu has not been investigated. This is an attitude problem. In fact, you have been drawn more than three times, and the impact on the population data is really small. Because this time there is no need to miss one person, as long as there is The ID card must be entered, and no entry must be implemented according to the household registration and whereabouts. There is really no information about you, and the statistics department is more anxious than you. In fact, even the kind of homeless people without ID cards with intellectual problems are treated as special circumstances. Dealing with it.) This has led to the fact that the annual natural population growth rate is not accurate at all and must be high. It can only reflect a certain trend, and in fact cannot be used as the basic data for any policy formulation. This time the seven-person census, the data is more accurate and even the most accurate of all population data. There are two reasons. One is because the ID card was imported for the first time, and the other is because the whole process is electronic, which can be electronically combined with the data of various departments. Comparison. This solves the problem of one person in two places or even multiple places to the greatest extent, while avoiding missing persons and multiple persons. The 2020 data released by the public security is not very informative at all. Because of the death population, part of the death population of the public security was confirmed by the seven-person generalization. This led to the number of deaths registered by the public security in 2020, and part of the death was before. At the same time, as for the birth population, many people did not go to the public security bureau or police station to handle household registration business because of the epidemic. Therefore, it is obvious that the number of births registered by the police is smaller than in the past, and it can’t even reflect the trend. 2. What is the real population situation? There is no doubt that even though China’s total population has increased compared to 2010, China’s labor force has declined. The main reason is the factor of life expectancy. There is also a short life span for men and long working years, while women have long life spans but short working years. The population outbreak period in China was a period when the slogan of large numbers of people was put forward in response to threats from the United States and the Soviet Union. In other words, it was the period from the beginning of the Sino-Soviet confrontation to the normalization of Sino-US relations. In fact, it was the first half from the 1960s to the 1970s. People born in this period are mostly around 60 years old now, but the average life expectancy in China is 76 years old. In other words, in theory, even if the birth population continues to decrease, the total population may not decrease until around 2030. However, this does not mean that the demographic dividend still exists. Considering that China’s academic circles are generally impetuous, not serious, and the ass determines the head, the total population is of great significance. But in fact, national development should consider the economically active population rather than the total population. What is an economically active population, strictly speaking, is the sum of people who are working and those who are looking for a job. Here is a replacement concept, because the force majeure is eliminated in the short term, the ratio of the economic population and the working-age population is relatively fixed and the gap is not large. In fact, the working-age population can be regarded as the economically active population. (Some people commented that what happens when six people are popular, we are not talking about the same thing. In fact, if we put it in the long-term, we can’t explain the economic demographic changes based on the two-time population of the right age). For example, ten years ago, not many people over the age of 60 participated in labor. However, with the increase in life expectancy, urbanization and industrial upgrading, the economically active population over 60 years old is increasing. The change in economically active population cannot be determined solely by two changes in the age structure of the population. In fact, according to my personal observation, until the beginning of 2019, the economically active population did not show a clear downward trend. Taking into account the current ladder plan for delaying retirement, the vast majority of people who currently retire are still 60 men and 55 women, which means that it is inevitable that the economically active population will begin to decline around 2020. I have encountered many doubters, so I will explain this thoroughly. At present, the true age of the economically active population, especially in rural areas, is already 65 for men and 60 for women. That is to say, in 2020, China’s first batch of women who are about to usher in the baby boom period will leave economic activities. Even more and more young women are getting more and more out of economic activities because of their children. why? Because the total number of newborns is declining but the number of urban newborns is increasing. Basically, there were more and more women taking care of children full-time in urban resident families before. In other words, (take notes) Do you think the problems caused by population decline are certain regardless of whether the population declines or not. The decline in the total population will only affect its intensity, not its trend. Third, what is going on with the population growth in 2020? There is no doubt that the seven-person population statistics are the most accurate of all demographic statistics conducted by all departments since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. At least the central government is able to grasp the real situation. But the focus is not on the total population but on the population structure. It can be said responsibly that, except for those first-tier cities, most of the remaining places have experienced a decline in the total population. But if you count a few first-tier cities, it’s really possible to increase slightly. However, because of the phenomenon that experts are fooled, society is impetuous, and scholars’ ass decides their heads. This kind of confusing data will only affect expectations, not actual developments. This means that, with the exception of a few first-tier cities, the demographic dividend in most parts of the country is negative. The most psychedelic thing is: if the seven-person population just happens to rise steadily, then the next time the data can accurately reflect the population problem is ten years later. In the ten years since the beginning of this year, the population data has returned to incomplete health and public security data, and statistical estimates are inaccurate or even seriously underestimated. In other words, there is no major crisis in the past ten years. It has little impact on expectations. Finally, I can say that the person in charge can also be regarded as admonishment. The current crisis may be over temporarily, but within ten years, China will either change the current income distribution system and reduce the pressure on ordinary people’s expenditure; or at least take back Taiwan to overcome the difficulties with national pride; or share the U.S. hegemony and assume the domestic problems with the world. . Otherwise, ten years later, it will be dangerous.

stockin
7 months ago

Within three years, the one-child problem of the post-80s generation cannot be resolved quickly and easily. No matter what tricks they do, they are not sincere. In another 10 years, it will be futile to wait for women born in the 90s to pass the childbearing age. Unless there is a baby production line. After 00 and 10, the population base is even smaller, and the average 3 births per capita cannot make up the gap left by the 8090 generation. What’s more, when the time comes, serious aging will only be suppressed after 00. So, at this time, does it matter what to say? Since it is growing, what will he do? Resuming family planning? Reinstatement of super-birth penalty Resume forced ligation? End compulsory education and open private schools? Let go of housing prices and continue land finance? Resuming medical self-finance, pension self-financing? Is it time to consider going to sea for colonization? Didn’t do the above, did you increase your loneliness? The birth rate fell sharply in 2014, and the overall second birth in 2016 will not change the trend. At the same time, the natural growth rate has slowly declined. What do you mean? The mortality rate has been reduced! The low mortality rate has hedged the newborn gap, and with the cover of the second child, the total population has actually increased. Well, yes, we have to celebrate the good news. In short, the situation is very good, and it can be said that the pension industry is vigorously developed! Is pension an industry? The galaxy black hole industry, do you want it? The investment is endless, the income is all 0, and even light can’t escape that kind.

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