The ADE effect means that after a human is infected with a mutant virus again, the antibodies originally produced by the human body may not work against the mutated virus. And at this time, because the human immune system mistakenly believes that the virus has been “suppressed”, the human immune system is completely defenseless against the virus at this time. This will cause this patient to have more severe symptoms after being infected with the mutated virus than those without antibodies.

I think people have not paid enough attention to the severity of the current epidemic in India. I think it is necessary to seriously discuss whether the ADE effect of the current situation in India has led to the seriousness of the current situation in India. Therefore, in today’s article, I will make an in-depth analysis of the possibility that the current wave of epidemic in India is based on the phenomenon of “mutant virus reinfection”. I hope that more people can pay attention to this possibility, and that the global scientific community can conduct in-depth research on this possibility as soon as possible, and give a scientific authoritative research result as soon as possible. The battle against the new crown virus is a race against time. It is a race against time. You must not be slow to react to these more dangerous possibilities. (1) Out-of-control epidemic The epidemic situation in India continued to maintain a record growth. Yesterday, the number of newly confirmed cases in India exceeded 370,000, breaking the world record held by it again. There are 300,000+ new confirmed cases every day for 8 consecutive days. This data seems to be very scary. What is even more frightening is that the actual infection data in India is definitely much higher than the data released by India. The current daily number of tests in India is close to 2 million. Based on the current 370,000 new confirmed cases daily, the overall positive rate in the country is as high as 19%. In some big cities in India, such as the capital New Delhi, the positive rate is as high as 30%. Such a high positive rate means that a large number of people infected with the new coronavirus have not been detected in time. In other words, India’s detection capabilities have fallen far behind the spread of the virus. Secondly, India has conducted 5 new coronavirus antibody test surveys in the past. That is to find a group of people to conduct a sample survey to test whether they have serum antibodies. The significance of this investigation is that after many people have been infected with the new coronavirus, since most of them are mild or asymptomatic, they will not go to the hospital, let alone take the test. India as a whole continues the negative anti-epidemic style of the United Kingdom and the United States. Only people with symptoms will be tested if necessary. Therefore, what is detected is actually the number of symptomatic patients, while a large number of asymptomatic and mild patients are not available. Testing has become free from the new coronavirus detection system and has become a huge potentially infected population. This is why both the United States and India are considered to be far more infected than the published data. And these asymptomatic and mildly ill patients, in the case of self-healing, there will still be antibodies to the new coronavirus in the serum of the body. Therefore, the significance of this “new coronavirus antibody detection survey” is that it can make a rough survey of the number of people in a certain range of people who have been infected with the new coronavirus. India conducted its first antibody survey in June 2020. The result of the inspection at that time was that in the 21,000 samples from New Delhi, the antibody carrying rate of the new coronavirus was 22.8%. In August 2020, New Delhi conducted the second antibody survey, and the antibody positive rate was 29.1%. In September 2020, the third antibody survey, the positive rate of antibodies was about 25.1%. October 2020, the fourth antibody survey, the positive rate was 25.5%. In January 2021, the fifth antibody survey, the positive rate was 60%. There were news reports about this incident at that time. And at that time, the Indian media were “praising” for this data because they believed that there were 20 million people in New Delhi, which means that at least 10 million people have been infected with the virus and have achieved “herd immunity”. Let’s look at the graph of the epidemic situation in India. After India reached the peak of infection in September last year, the number of new infections has been declining. This is not because India has controlled the epidemic, but because the number of people who have symptoms and are tested has been greatly reduced. Therefore, the actual number of infections in India actually depends only on India’s testing capabilities, including the people’s ability to be tested. Since a large number of poor people in India cannot be tested, the new coronavirus data released by India is actually very false. But it can also provide us with some useful information. 1. The peak of the diagnosis in India in September last year was due to the rapid spread of the virus in the first wave, and the actual number of infections was much higher than its published data. 2. A large number of people could not be tested, but most of the infected people at that time were indeed mild and asymptomatic patients. They would not go to the hospital and would not cause a run on medical resources for the hospital, so they became a huge invisible new coronavirus infection. crowd. According to the judgment of WHO experts through antibody testing, this huge number of invisible new coronavirus infections is 20 to 30 times that of the previous official report. This is also the source of news that has spread in the first two days and the actual number of infections in India may be 20 to 30 times higher than the report. But many people have overlooked an important point of this news. This does not mean that the number of people infected with the latest mutant virus has reached more than 350 million. It means that the huge number of “invisible new coronavirus infected people” who were infected with the last version of the new coronavirus last year is as high as 350 million. So until February this year, so many people in India were infected with the new crown virus, but there was no medical run. Last year, there was no news of cremation on the streets in India. This shows the fact that last year’s “previous version” of the new crown virus was just a younger brother to India. In India, a magical country where the population is generally younger and has been exposed to high temperatures most of the time, last year’s The version of the new crown virus did not cause too much trouble in India. Many young Indians have actually been infected with the new crown virus last year, but because most of them are mild and asymptomatic, they did not go to the hospital and did not go for testing, becoming a huge “invisible infected population.” This is why, in the fifth antibody test in New Delhi in January this year, the positive rate was as high as 60%. So seeing this, you may be able to draw a terrible conclusion based on the simplest logical reasoning. That is, in India, there are currently more than 350 million people infected with the new crown virus. With so many people already having antibodies to the new crown virus, such a serious outbreak still occurs. This can only explain one problem, that is, the mutant virus currently pandemic in India has the function of “escaping the human immunity”, that is, even young Indians who have been infected with the new coronavirus last year and have antibodies in their bodies will still be affected by this. It was infected by a mutated new coronavirus and had more severe symptoms than last year. If it is said that the last version of the new crown virus last year, it is a younger brother in front of India. Then the mutant virus that is currently raging in India, India has become a younger brother in front of it. The new crown virus treats all kinds of dissatisfaction. Yes, in January of this year, because the antibody rate was as high as 60%, the Indian media cheered that India had achieved herd immunity. They seemed to ignore a very important issue, that is, the virus will mutate. Based on the above analysis, I put forward some personal guesses. (2) It is guessed that according to the results of the fifth antibody test in India, in January this year, more than half of the people in New Delhi have been infected with the new coronavirus and have antibodies in their bodies. So in fact, this has formed herd immunity. This may be one of the reasons why the number of newly diagnosed cases in India dropped sharply every day in January this year, because too many people have been infected with the new coronavirus, and they have antibodies in their bodies, and they have strong immunity to the previous version of the new coronavirus. , Forming an immune barrier. If the virus does not mutate, it is possible that India will really end the epidemic as they announced in March. But they are still too naive. With such a large infection base in India, how can the virus not mutate? So in fact, India reported in February of this year that 240 mutant strains had been discovered. India has undoubtedly become a super huge “virus petri dish”, where a large number of different versions of the new coronavirus converge. And because India’s population is predominantly young, many people have the possibility of long-term infection with various versions of the new coronavirus. According to some studies by scientists, the longer the virus is infected, the greater the probability of mutation. In India, in January this year, hundreds of millions of people may have been infected with the new crown virus. This has caused the emergence of a certain key mutated virus strain in India, and there is little suspense. The high proportion of young people in India, the high temperature environment, and many people already have antibodies, have provided “evolutionary selective pressure” to the evolution of the virus in India. According to the principle of “natural selection” in the theory of evolution, the evolution of viruses is also a phenomenon of survival of the fittest. The struggle between humans and viruses and bacteria is actually in a long race. When antibiotics first came out, the resistance of bacteria was very weak, so the effect of antibiotics was very good. However, after decades of abuse of antibiotics by humans, the resistance of bacteria has continued to increase. This is because during the evolution of bacteria, those with weak drug resistance have been eliminated, and the ones that can continue to survive are super bacteria with increasingly strong drug resistance. These super bacteria that survive can spread further. , Here antibiotics become the “evolutionary selection pressure” of the evolution of super bacteria. Viruses, especially RNA viruses, are more likely to mutate than bacteria. This makes the slow mutation of bacteria in the environment for decades, and RNA viruses are actually possible to complete quickly within a super large infection base in a short period of time. So we can see why India has provided a huge virus culture dish for the mutation of the new coronavirus. The last version of the new crown virus may indeed be just a younger brother in front of India. India’s population is very young and the climate is very hot. Therefore, even if India’s test data were completely inaccurate last year, a large number of infected people were mild and asymptomatic patients. Therefore, there was no run on medical resources and no current situation. In this way, people can see cremation scenes on the streets. However, the environment of India provides a huge possibility for the new crown virus to evolve this kind of “poison king”. In order for the new crown virus to survive in an environment like India, it proves that the new crown virus is not a younger brother in India, so India’s younger population and high proportion of antibody population will become the selective pressure for the evolution of the new crown virus. In order for the new coronavirus to survive in such an environment, it has to find ways to evolve skills such as “increase the infection rate to young people”, “learn to avoid human immunity”, and “infect even with antibodies”. So we can see that B.1.617 in the current report has such characteristics. A few days ago, CCTV also published a news clip specifically reporting the situation of B.1.617, which mentioned that B.1.617 contains 15 mutations and is highly infectious, which can cause immune escape. The immune escape mentioned here refers to the possibility of escape from the human immune system that already has antibodies to the new coronavirus, and the possibility of “re-infection” can still be achieved. According to the analysis of the following article, we can have some understanding of the immune escape mutation of B.1.617. Therefore, there are now more and more speculations that the current wave of outbreaks in India is likely to be related to the mutant strain of B.1.617. This is supported by some data. According to Indian data, more than 70% of patients in India’s most severely affected state have been infected with the B.1.617 new crown virus, but only 16.1% in February, which has greatly exceeded the proportion of mutated viruses in the UK. , Become the main strain.


By zhiwo

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7 months ago

I just translated an article by an Indian scientist [1], and the conclusion is that it is possible. How the Novel Coronavirus Variant Complicated Our COVID-19 Vaccination Work (Machine Translation + Manual Proofreading) April 22, 2021 Recently, the Lancet COVID-19 Committee India Task Force published a report [2], said several cases of COVID-19 have been reported among vaccinated people across the country. “(Indian population) after being vaccinated, perhaps due to reduced immunity or unsafe behavior, the susceptibility to the new crown seems to be particularly high. In order to fight the epidemic, it is necessary to stay vigilant and continue to emphasize other safety precautions (maintain social distance, often Wash your hands)” Many people no longer remain cautious about the epidemic after vaccination. For example, they may become more complacent after vaccination, which is part of the reason for the increase in infection rates. But we must also carefully consider other possible causes, which cannot be ruled out at will. Some colleagues who work in the larger COVID-19 hospitals in my big cities have also observed that the growth rate of people who are vaccinated within two weeks and subsequently tested positive for COVID-19 is much higher than that of people who have not been vaccinated, and those who are vaccinated People have worse symptoms. However, the Indian Ministry of Health has not shared any such data so far. Are these worries real? Let us find out. The original antigen The speculation that the vaccine may abnormally increase the risk of infection may originate from the 2009 influenza A (H1N1pdm09) pandemic. Four Canadian studies at the time showed that vaccinations against seasonal flu increase the risk of confirmed infections. This led to five other studies, each of which confirmed these initial findings. One explanation for this phenomenon is called the original antigen problem. It is first used to describe how a person’s first exposure to influenza virus affects subsequent exposure to similar related pathogens (antigens are part of the substance that causes an immune response, just like the spike protein of the new coronavirus). This special immune phenomenon explains why the immune system cannot produce an immune response against similar antigens. When a person is vaccinated and infected with an evolved pathogen (the pathogen carries a new antigen), the immune system produces antibodies against the original pathogen. This is because specific B cells prevent the activation of naive B cells, resulting in a weak immune response against newer strains. Therefore, compared with unvaccinated people, vaccinated people have an abnormally increased risk of infection. This phenomenon may occur when the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to mutate. As you know, most of the existing COVID-19 vaccines are developed based on the virus strains that spread around the world last year. But by the end of 2020, many mutant strains with spike protein mutations appeared. These new mutant strains have replaced the original ancestors in most countries. A similar situation occurred in India, where one or two major variants (B.1.1.7 and B.1.617) replaced the original strain and started a pandemic. Therefore, due to the production of specific B cells after vaccination, the immune system may have a strong immune response to the original epitopes contained in the “original” strain. (“An antibody recognizes a specific part of the virus, called an epitope, and uses a part called a paratope to form a bond with it.” Source). The number of these pre-formed specific B cells exceeds that of naive B cells and prevents naive B cells from responding to new strains. So the immune system becomes unable to establish faster and stronger secondary reactions. This means that when the epitope changes slightly, the immune system will rely on the memory of the previous infection (with the original strain) to produce antibodies instead of the newly emerging epitope (B.1.617 or B.1.1.7). . Because the immune system relies more on memory B cells, rather than initiating new responses. If the virus mutates, the immune system may not respond adequately. India’s vaccine The Covishield vaccine is based on nucleic acid technology and works against a single SARS-CoV-2 antigen (spike protein). Covaxin is based on inactivated vaccine technology. After using the inactivated vaccine, not only the spike protein but also other antigens are also presented to the immune system to trigger an immune response. Due to the large number of antigens presented, the possibility of insufficient response after vaccination is higher than that of vaccines against single antigens. However, there are other mechanisms, such as antibody-dependent enhancement effect (ADE). Through this effect, even inactivated vaccines (such as Covaxin) can increase the severity of the disease. In the process of developing a COVID-19 vaccine, experts raised concerns about the effect of single antigen method in controlling the mid-to-long-term pandemic. In an editorial in May 2020, Gregory Poland of the Mayo Vaccine Research Group in New York posed a similar question. He wrote:…There are widespread immunogenicity problems. Considering that this is an RNA virus, I think it is important to include more than one viral antigen in the vaccine. Although its importance is unclear so far, researchers have identified at least one mutation in the [receptor binding domain] of the spike gene. It is conceivable that further mutations may lead to changes in the original antigen, which may lead to disease enhancement after exposure to the virus, or cause the future vaccine to be ineffective. Vaccines against a single SARS-CoV-2 antigen may fail or even worsen the infection, while the risk of vaccines containing other related SARS-CoV-2 virus antigens is greatly reduced. A colleague of mine and I raised similar concerns in a detailed review on vaccine development and risks published last year. What should we do? Some phenomena have pointed out that this abnormal mechanism is at work. As mentioned above, many clinicians and well-known independent expert institutions have raised the possibility of a higher infection rate among vaccinators. Even if the increase in infection rate may be caused by two factors, we should not think that this phenomenon is only related to unsafe behavior after vaccination. On the contrary, we should make every effort to investigate whether our vaccine has this effect, work hard to develop a multi-antigen vaccine, and ensure that the vaccinators comply with social behaviors suitable for the COVID epidemic environment. Researchers should assess the frequency and severity of disease in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. We should also study in groups based on the use of vaccines. At present, the number of reports of COVID-19 infection in India has increased unprecedentedly. What we do to protect ourselves (developing vaccinations) may inadvertently exacerbate the disease, which is totally unacceptable.

7 months ago

Why are the new symptoms of the virus (diarrhea, abdominal pain, rash, conjunctivitis, confusion) appearing in India for younger patients and severely ill young patients? I think that the patients who can be observed by Indian doctors should be high-caste patients. The difference between high-caste patients and low-caste patients is whether they have been vaccinated or not. Therefore, the only reasonable explanation for this phenomenon is that the immune system has a universal problem. It may be antibody dependent syndrome (ADE). In other words, for patients vaccinated with the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Pfizer also has this ingredient), if the vaccine is not effective against the mutant virus, the human body will not produce antibodies against the new virus. Without immunity, the mortality rate of patients will increase sharply. . Some Chinese experts are pursuing the “vaccine herd immunization” open country program. In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, the vaccine is efficient and the proportion of the population not suitable for vaccination? Unexpected ADE effect? The mutation and possible recombination of coronavirus in the host’s special ecological environment, etc.? Exaggerating the effect of the new crown vaccine may not be optimistic. This question cannot be trial and error. Will the existing anti-epidemic results be in vain? This plan requires caution! The gate of the country must not be opened in a hurry. The ade effect of the virus still has to be formulated in advance

7 months ago

It is hard to say whether there is an ADE effect, but it is certain that the previous virus antibodies have very limited immune effects on the current double mutant strains! The Serum Institute of India has conducted several rounds of COVID-19 antibody ratio sampling tests in succession since last summer. 60% of the people in Delhi (the number of samples are more than 20,000) sampled in February this year have COVID-19 antibodies in their bodies; The news was reported as positive news in India at that time, because this ratio was already very close to the lower limit of herd immunity. As a result, India is still experiencing a second wave of epidemics. This can basically be regarded as a classic failure of herd immunity, which is written in the textbook. Kind. On the other hand, India’s daily COVID-19 screening capability has increased from the outbreak last year to 1.5 million cases per day, and there has been no significant improvement until now. For the 1.4 billion India, this test can basically be regarded as a sampling test (Qingdao 1200 Ten thousand people will be tested every 5 days, and 8 million people in Shenyang will be tested every 3 days. India’s national testing capacity is not as good as a second-tier city in China). The recent substantial increase in confirmed cases is mainly due to the increase in the diagnosis rate. In fact, India’s diagnosis The population curve should be regarded as the diagnosis rate curve. At present, the diagnosis rate in India has reached 30%. Even if they are symptomatic, they are tested. Think about people with cold symptoms. More than 30% are new crowns. This is terrible. In addition, the recent increase in the infection rate among young people and the current high temperature in India Without restraining the spread of the virus, I always feel that this wave of epidemics is not easy! Furthermore, since the previous virus antibodies have limited immunity against the current double mutant strains, what about vaccines?

7 months ago

The answer is: it cannot be analyzed. You said that there are 300,000 diagnoses per day, but how many are still undiagnosed, it’s unclear. You said that there is a severe lack of oxygen supply. It is unknown how many severe cases are diagnosed, and what is the age distribution. You said that the number of deaths is 3000+ per day, but how many deaths is unclear. Path of infection, route of infection, susceptible population, unknown. I ask India one question and three questions, and I don’t let the international medical team actually investigate whether there is ADE, what kind of ADE, and no one can do anything about it. I can’t imagine the data, right?

7 months ago

The correct rate of positive tests in India is itself a mystery. For airplanes with negative certificates, the positive rate is 30%, and the number of deaths is also a mystery. According to the Indian population, the normal number of deaths per day is more than 1W, and thousands of people are stacked on top of the new crown. It stands to reason that the run on the funeral business will not be so exaggerated, so the data is inaccurate, and ADE naturally has no way to analyze it. The only thing we can know is that a large-scale concentrated outbreak occurred this time, resulting in insufficient medical oxygen, and severe illness equals death. Combined with the time when India gathers for the holidays, this wave of new crowns should be spread during the holidays, and it is not the first time in India. The population has a high probability of having been infected once. This time it is so serious, it shows that the new crown, like a cold, guarantees its survival rate through high mutation rate. In this sense, the vaccine is only an auxiliary to solve the new crown, and strict epidemic prevention measures must be used to solve the new crown problem.

7 months ago

The ADE effect should not have occurred. The ADE effect: the individual’s dependence on antibodies is increased. When the virus infects host cells, the relevant antibodies will reversely enhance its infectivity due to some reasons. The ATM effect should have occurred. ATM: A Tender Medical treatments and its fragility The medical line of defense and the neglected epidemic prevention and control have led to the death of death in India as simple as going to the bank to withdraw money; the Holy Bath Day has attracted a total of 100 million to 150 million Hindu followers to participate. Within three days of the “Holy Bathing Day”, millions of believers were immersed in the Ganges River for bathing, of which 943,000 were “going into the water” on the 14th. According to the current scale of the epidemic, India has a way to make money: to build a crematorium, build it with mud, and burn it in a kiln before and make bricks, right? Take that whole, bigger! Buy one kilogram of gasoline, pull three tons of charcoal, and negotiate with the Indian government to negotiate with the Indian government to undertake all the corpse incineration business. One book is to burn three hundred a day. , The collection of 30,000 is secretly burning 30,000 a day, crediting 3 million, the actual income is 1.5 million, fifty-five cents! After the scale is up, the incineration business needs to expand and the Indian government has announced a policy: in order to control the epidemic, everyone must go to the designated incinerator for legal incineration! When there are more people, classify business again: class burning! Rich-30,000 yuan, non-firewood burning, bonus Ganges water cycle resurrection service Economical-3,000, charcoal fire, there are ashes recovery projects, no money-300, collective firewood burning

7 months ago

India is so riotous, don’t experts go to study their strains? I feel that their virus has become more terrifying. 1. Heat resistance. India is already quite hot and drought. It is reasonable to reduce the spread of respiratory infectious diseases. For example, the 1918 pandemic was strong in winter and weak in summer, and SARS suddenly disappeared in summer. 2. Not only has the fatality rate increased, but the mortality rate of young people without underlying diseases has also gone up, and funeral staff say that the mortality rate of young people and old people is similar. Is this true without an expert investigating it?

7 months ago

The ADE effect is not so common. Perhaps in order to attract attention, people often use ADE to bluff people, especially some pseudo-scientists. So what is the sign of the ADE effect? The condition worsened and the mortality rate increased. In particular, the increase in mortality is a matter of great concern all over the world. Is there any report of the mutation of the new coronavirus that has significantly increased the mortality? The answer is no. Therefore, there is no scientific basis for speculation about the effect of ADE. This epidemic is suspected to have caused a high-temperature-resistant new crown virus mutation that caused cross-infection. It is like the combination of the cold virus and the new crown virus in the United States in the winter that caused a serious new crown epidemic. As a result, the arrival of spring and the blooming of spring flowers means that the cold virus has retreated from the new coronavirus alone. Europe and the United States do not blockade very much, especially the United States has not blocked India, and there have been short-term repetitions. However, it is down now. The description is a general cross-infection, not ADE. Different new coronavirus mutations all lead to the process of cellular immune adaptation, so it is easier to spread at the beginning, but it does not mean that humoral immunity does not work, and the result is that the mortality rate is not significantly increased. The characteristic of ADE is to bypass the humoral immunity, that is, the immunity brought about by blood antibodies, so the mortality rate has increased significantly. The lack of a significant increase in mortality means that this new coronavirus mutation has not bypassed antibody immunity, so it is not an ADE effect. Based on the above principles and the development of the epidemic, it can only be inferred that the mutation of the high-temperature resistant new coronavirus causes cross-infection.

7 months ago

ADE (antibody-dependent enhancement); VAED (vaccine-associated enhanced diseases); VAERD (vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory diseases); These three concepts are actually very similar, but there are subtle differences in usage. VAERD is a type of VAED and is limited to respiratory symptoms. ADE usually refers to antibodies that help the virus to enter the monocyte-macrophage system to replicate and proliferate, accelerate the spread of the virus, and aggravate the disease. The prerequisite for the occurrence of ADE is that the virus needs to be able to actively replicate and proliferate in mononuclear macrophages carrying FcR or CR (complement receptor). SARS-CoV-2 does not meet this condition, so the ADE effect can be ruled out, but others cannot be ruled out. Types of VAED; through the analysis of cases in the history of vaccines, we can make the following conclusions or predictions: efficient antibody neutralization or cellular immunity is the key to antagonizing or inhibiting the occurrence of VAED. This means that when a vaccine can induce the production of high-affinity neutralizing antibodies or cellular immunity, the lower the chance of VAED in this vaccine. Therefore, the type of vaccine that can induce humoral immunity and cellular immunity at the same time has a lower probability of VAED than the type of vaccine that can only induce humoral immunity. The former includes mRNA vaccines, adenovirus vaccines, live attenuated vaccines and recombinant subunit vaccines containing new adjuvants; the latter includes inactivated vaccines and recombinant subunit vaccines with aluminum hydroxide as an adjuvant. The same vaccine has different rates of VAED in different groups. For example, in the same inactivated vaccine, the probability of VAED in the elderly is obviously higher than that in the younger population. Because the ability of the elderly population to produce highly effective neutralizing antibodies and specific cellular immunity is greatly reduced due to the aging of the immune system, the tissue damage caused by non-neutralizing antibodies and Th2 cells cannot be restrained and inhibited. The most important point is that with the continuous production of coronavirus mutant strains, especially the amino acid mutations on the spike protein, the neutralizing antibodies and cellular immunity produced by the original vaccine cannot effectively neutralize or kill the current virus. , The VAED effect may occur. Therefore, the mutation of the virus will obviously increase the possibility of VAED. In order to prevent the occurrence of VAED, there are several methods: A: Try to vaccinate the type of vaccine that can produce efficient humoral and cellular immunity at the same time; B: Speed ​​up the update of the vaccine sequence to ensure that the neutralizing antibodies produced can neutralize the current Virus; C: Continue to wear a mask to prevent infection;

7 months ago

The possibility is not small. First of all, there are many laymen who have little knowledge and say that the virulence will gradually decline. The mechanism of reduced virulence is that symptoms affect transmission. The problem now is that half of the spread of covid occurs 2 days before symptoms, about 80% occurs within 2 days of symptoms, and death occurs within 7 to 14 days of symptoms (about this situation, you may not remember accurately). Therefore, the decline in virulence will not occur naturally. Only by active screening, the nucleic acid is found immediately and the symptoms are immediately isolated can the virulence be reduced. Secondly, A San’s serum antibody is 50% positive, indicating that 50% of the population has been infected at least 3 months or more ago. That is to say, in 2020, A San has basically achieved herd natural immunity. We all know that the virus spreads exponentially without control. If 50% of the population is infected in one year, then 40% may be infected in November and December. Then the actual number of infections/unit time at the end of last year must be one Very scary numbers. Now Ah San’s nucleic acid positive rate is 2%, which shows that the current infection is spreading at a much lower rate than at the end of last year. So the question is: Why did the infection rate be so fast at the end of last year, but the price of oxygen and firewood did not increase? Oxygen is a relatively rigid commodity, and its price is highly dependent on demand. In other words, why the infection rate was so fast last year, but oxygen is not needed. The infection rate now is obviously much lower than last year, but the price of oxygen has increased more than 10 times. Then the only explanation is: the virus’s virulence has increased after eating. I’ll finish writing in one go, I’m afraid I’ll get confused after eating. Then, in the case of herd immunity, why 1, the virus can continue to spread, and 2, why the virulence is increased. The first explanation is that the new version of the virus can penetrate the old version of the virus to generate antibody recognition. Considering the high infection base of Asan and the instability of single-stranded RNA, it should be said that the probability of specific mutations that can penetrate natural antibodies (to a large extent is the specific mutation at the site where the S protein binds to human ace2) It is fixed, the higher the base number, the more the number of draws per unit time, the higher the probability of the draw. This feature does not contradict the actual situation of Ah San’s high infection base at all. Therefore, it is possible for the new mutant strain to penetrate the old immunity. This mutation penetration hypothesis is supported by evidence. The evidence is that the detection rate of the double mutant virus in the A three population significantly outperforms the old version of the virus over time, that is, the population frequency of double mutant strains is continuously increasing. The only selective pressure that the three groups of people can exert on the virus is the immunity obtained by natural infection. It is very likely that this double-mutant strain has broken through the natural immunity induced by the old version of the 2020 virus. The second explanation, the same, if the mutation suddenly becomes purely to increase the virulence, it is also possible. However, if the s protein is mutated, the old antibody cannot effectively block the s protein, and the new s protein can still bind to ace2, then this is the mechanism of penetrating immunity. At the same time, although the old antibody cannot block the binding force of the s protein, it can attract APC cells to make the virus more likely to infect immune cells such as APC. This is the most common mechanism of the ADE effect. In other words, the mutant ADE hypothesis can explain both immune penetration and increased virulence with one mutation. Instead of the ADE mutation hypothesis, one needs to assume that the specific mutations in 2, one is responsible for breaking immunity, and the other is responsible for improving virulence. Obviously, the probability of the former is much greater than that of the latter. So I said, San might have practiced the Gu King this time, and there are too many sprays. If you are dissatisfied, shut up. This old iron found the evidence. It doesn’t seem to be a single mutation ade, but a simple double mutation. One breaks through the binding power of the antibody, and the other increases the virulence. Anyway, the natural immunity of covid2019 should not be able to resist covid2021, and the virulence is also improved.

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